4 ms·

The past decade's EV success has been driven by government regulations and subsidies (which is a good thing actually, I'm 100% in favor in governments interveni

The past decade's EV success has been driven by government regulations and subsidies (which is a good thing actually, I'm 100% in favor in governments intervening in the economy to foster socially positive outcome), the future looks a bit less bright though, because on many places subsidies are drying up (which makes sense though, because subsidizing electric cars is probably one of the least efficient use of money to fight climate change).

concordDance 3y ago
It's not all subsidies though. Havent Tesla's subsidies in the USA run out?
- constantcrying 3y ago
  Tesla sales dropped significantly. This comes after Germany has cut subsidies for EVs. Tesla is now laying off staff.
  - starbugs 3y ago
    I've recently considered buying an EV. I've come to the conclusion that it only makes sense if you can charge at home and won't frequently go on longer road trips. Even then, I might still consider it too expensive/risky at this point. It comes down to a few reasons for me: * If you can't charge at home, EVs generally don't seem to make economical sense * The charging network is not well enough developed, especially when considering peak times like public holidays etc. * If you don't have access to the Tesla supercharger network, you will very likely overpay on charging. So much so that it makes an ICE car look cheap to refuel. * Getting a used EV is still a very weird experience with one of the most important indicators very hard to determine: battery health I wonder if evaluations similar to mine have led to many people in the US owning EVs only as their second car and still retain an ICE car "on the side" (or vice versa). If these issues are not resolved, I expect the EV market share to top at about 30% for the foreseeable future. Hybrids and CNG vehicles seem to be a more economical and practical alternative for the masses while also significantly reducing emissions when compared to traditional ICE cars.
    - EVyesnoyesnoyes 3y ago
      I haven't charged at home for nearly 2 years. It was not an issue. Nonetheless, you can charge your EV on a normal powerplug. Should be very easy for home owners to charge at home. No clue about the charging network in US, in EU its good enough. Tesla is cheaper and more expensive in germany, it highly depends on what you use. EVs show that batterie life is no real issue. Not a bigger concern than your engine block breaking. Hybrids have horrible co2 values and CNG are very limited available while a plug is available nearly everywere. I have charged at hotels often enough now. EV is a lot more fun to drive and its easy to save a lot if you have solar panels. I don't think it will top at 30% (what a random number).
      - starbugs 3y ago
        > I haven't charged at home for nearly 2 years. It was not an issue. How frequently do you drive and how long are your trips? Where and on what network do you charge? What do you pay for charging? > Nonetheless, you can charge your EV on a normal powerplug. Should be very easy for home owners to charge at home. What if you aren't a home owner? What if you are a home owner and the car parking is too far away from your house? > No clue about the charging network in US, in EU its good enough. Where in the EU are you talking about? These all look like blanket statements to me as they don't consider the real context of a person trying to decide if an EV is practical for them. > Tesla is cheaper and more expensive in germany What does that mean? > EVs show that batterie life is no real issue. Not a bigger concern than your engine block breaking. An engine block breaking is a real issue. That's why mileage is reported and it's quite common to do inspections before buying a used car. Battery health is not reported and there is no straightforward way to do an inspection. > EV is a lot more fun to drive and its easy to save a lot if you have solar panels. What if you don't have solar panels and are on a budget? Does it help that it's fun to drive if you can't afford it or it makes your life impractical? > 30% (what a random number) I said "at about 30%". It's a gut guess, so not completely random. I think in general this conversation is a good example of how some people assume that their privileged life situation is just normal and everybody owns a home with solar panels and a garage with a charger. But that's not true. Maybe 30% of people can afford that, hence my gut guess on the "random" number.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Tesla is also getting a lot of competition from cheaper competitors and the interest rates going up is putting people off large sticker prices and their models aren't getting refreshed at the rate of other brands. I think both @concordDance and @littlestymaar are correct: It's not all subsidies even though subsidies did play a big part. It's good that governments gave those subsidies out, and this is the right time to end them. The future is bright.
    - constantcrying 3y ago
      Tesla has always been a luxury brand, which means that depending on the situation people can easily be priced out of those cars. >this is the right time to end them I mean it did give a boost to ICE sales and make companies reconsider their jump away from those.
      - ben_w 3y ago
        > Tesla has always been a luxury brand I disagree. While they have a sticker price implying luxury, they justify the price on the grounds of electricity being cheaper than petrol and diesel, not on build quality. > I mean it did give a boost to ICE sales and make companies reconsider their jump away from those. Always would in the short term, but the main cost and supply limit is batteries, and supply is now high enough (and cost low enough) that governments are better off just mandating the change rather than subsidising it; there's a few examples around the world of governments subsidising petrol, with the obvious results — everyone has backed the subsidy into their lives, and it would be political suicide to remove even in dictatorships. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidies_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidies_in_Iran
        constantcrying 3y ago
        >While they have a sticker price implying luxury, they justify the price on the grounds of electricity being cheaper than petrol and diesel, not on build quality. Yes, certainly Tesla isn't known for build quality. But they don't even try to enter the low cost or budget EV market. High sticker prices for bad cars screams failed luxury to me.
  - concordDance 3y ago
    Sure, but they're still able to sell cars and at a profit even without subsidies, so the market can survive without them.
    - littlestymaar 3y ago
      If the market survives but plateaus at its current level (~15% of car sales Worldwide) then we're still stuck with ICE cars everywhere…
      - ben_w 3y ago
        I don't think we need to worry about that hypothetical: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...
bojan 3y ago
The time will tell, but I have a feeling that, while the subsidies were useful to turn people's attention to the EVs, they will not prove to be deciding factor for a decision to buy an EV or not. The manufacturers will adjust the prices a bit, and the electricity prices are stabilized. For me the main factor was the feeling that I'm polluting the steet where my kids play way less every time I drive out.
- oblio 3y ago
  Let alone stuff like buses. I think we've all had that moment when we got stuck behind a badly maintained diesel bus/truck that was spewing toxic black fumes behind it. I can't even image what folks with asthma do in those cases.
silvestrov 3y ago
I think it is a matter of price: when EVs get cheap enough, then they will sell no matter lack of subsidies. Same happened with windmills. For the first ~20 years they needed subsidies to get built, but today they are so cheap (per kWh) that capitalists invest in them without needing any subsidies. With China going full speed into EV production, the prices will drop. With charging stations springing up everywhere, range axiety is going away and this will enable EVs with smaller batteries, which will reduce price.

concordDance 3y ago

It's not all subsidies though. Havent Tesla's subsidies in the USA run out?

constantcrying 3y ago
Tesla sales dropped significantly. This comes after Germany has cut subsidies for EVs. Tesla is now laying off staff.
- starbugs 3y ago
  I've recently considered buying an EV. I've come to the conclusion that it only makes sense if you can charge at home and won't frequently go on longer road trips. Even then, I might still consider it too expensive/risky at this point. It comes down to a few reasons for me: * If you can't charge at home, EVs generally don't seem to make economical sense * The charging network is not well enough developed, especially when considering peak times like public holidays etc. * If you don't have access to the Tesla supercharger network, you will very likely overpay on charging. So much so that it makes an ICE car look cheap to refuel. * Getting a used EV is still a very weird experience with one of the most important indicators very hard to determine: battery health I wonder if evaluations similar to mine have led to many people in the US owning EVs only as their second car and still retain an ICE car "on the side" (or vice versa). If these issues are not resolved, I expect the EV market share to top at about 30% for the foreseeable future. Hybrids and CNG vehicles seem to be a more economical and practical alternative for the masses while also significantly reducing emissions when compared to traditional ICE cars.
  - EVyesnoyesnoyes 3y ago
    I haven't charged at home for nearly 2 years. It was not an issue. Nonetheless, you can charge your EV on a normal powerplug. Should be very easy for home owners to charge at home. No clue about the charging network in US, in EU its good enough. Tesla is cheaper and more expensive in germany, it highly depends on what you use. EVs show that batterie life is no real issue. Not a bigger concern than your engine block breaking. Hybrids have horrible co2 values and CNG are very limited available while a plug is available nearly everywere. I have charged at hotels often enough now. EV is a lot more fun to drive and its easy to save a lot if you have solar panels. I don't think it will top at 30% (what a random number).
    - starbugs 3y ago
      > I haven't charged at home for nearly 2 years. It was not an issue. How frequently do you drive and how long are your trips? Where and on what network do you charge? What do you pay for charging? > Nonetheless, you can charge your EV on a normal powerplug. Should be very easy for home owners to charge at home. What if you aren't a home owner? What if you are a home owner and the car parking is too far away from your house? > No clue about the charging network in US, in EU its good enough. Where in the EU are you talking about? These all look like blanket statements to me as they don't consider the real context of a person trying to decide if an EV is practical for them. > Tesla is cheaper and more expensive in germany What does that mean? > EVs show that batterie life is no real issue. Not a bigger concern than your engine block breaking. An engine block breaking is a real issue. That's why mileage is reported and it's quite common to do inspections before buying a used car. Battery health is not reported and there is no straightforward way to do an inspection. > EV is a lot more fun to drive and its easy to save a lot if you have solar panels. What if you don't have solar panels and are on a budget? Does it help that it's fun to drive if you can't afford it or it makes your life impractical? > 30% (what a random number) I said "at about 30%". It's a gut guess, so not completely random. I think in general this conversation is a good example of how some people assume that their privileged life situation is just normal and everybody owns a home with solar panels and a garage with a charger. But that's not true. Maybe 30% of people can afford that, hence my gut guess on the "random" number.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Tesla is also getting a lot of competition from cheaper competitors and the interest rates going up is putting people off large sticker prices and their models aren't getting refreshed at the rate of other brands. I think both @concordDance and @littlestymaar are correct: It's not all subsidies even though subsidies did play a big part. It's good that governments gave those subsidies out, and this is the right time to end them. The future is bright.
  - constantcrying 3y ago
    Tesla has always been a luxury brand, which means that depending on the situation people can easily be priced out of those cars. >this is the right time to end them I mean it did give a boost to ICE sales and make companies reconsider their jump away from those.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      > Tesla has always been a luxury brand I disagree. While they have a sticker price implying luxury, they justify the price on the grounds of electricity being cheaper than petrol and diesel, not on build quality. > I mean it did give a boost to ICE sales and make companies reconsider their jump away from those. Always would in the short term, but the main cost and supply limit is batteries, and supply is now high enough (and cost low enough) that governments are better off just mandating the change rather than subsidising it; there's a few examples around the world of governments subsidising petrol, with the obvious results — everyone has backed the subsidy into their lives, and it would be political suicide to remove even in dictatorships. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidies_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidies_in_Iran
      - constantcrying 3y ago
        >While they have a sticker price implying luxury, they justify the price on the grounds of electricity being cheaper than petrol and diesel, not on build quality. Yes, certainly Tesla isn't known for build quality. But they don't even try to enter the low cost or budget EV market. High sticker prices for bad cars screams failed luxury to me.
- concordDance 3y ago
  Sure, but they're still able to sell cars and at a profit even without subsidies, so the market can survive without them.
  - littlestymaar 3y ago
    If the market survives but plateaus at its current level (~15% of car sales Worldwide) then we're still stuck with ICE cars everywhere…
    - ben_w 3y ago
      I don't think we need to worry about that hypothetical: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

bojan 3y ago

The time will tell, but I have a feeling that, while the subsidies were useful to turn people's attention to the EVs, they will not prove to be deciding factor for a decision to buy an EV or not. The manufacturers will adjust the prices a bit, and the electricity prices are stabilized. For me the main factor was the feeling that I'm polluting the steet where my kids play way less every time I drive out.

oblio 3y ago
Let alone stuff like buses. I think we've all had that moment when we got stuck behind a badly maintained diesel bus/truck that was spewing toxic black fumes behind it. I can't even image what folks with asthma do in those cases.

silvestrov 3y ago

I think it is a matter of price: when EVs get cheap enough, then they will sell no matter lack of subsidies. Same happened with windmills. For the first ~20 years they needed subsidies to get built, but today they are so cheap (per kWh) that capitalists invest in them without needing any subsidies. With China going full speed into EV production, the prices will drop. With charging stations springing up everywhere, range axiety is going away and this will enable EVs with smaller batteries, which will reduce price.