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You might be right about all of that. I think waning support from the US to Israel makes sense - most Israelis no longer support the current Israeli government!

by edanm 3y ago

You might be right about all of that. I think waning support from the US to Israel makes sense - most Israelis no longer support the current Israeli government! That said, US and Israeli interests are incredibly aligned. They have basically the same enemies (Iran, to some extent Russia and China, and Islamic fundamentalists in general), and the same outlook on the world. This isn't necessarily recognized by all citizens, but it's actually true about the world. I think the truth eventually overrides momentary episodes of changing public support. > There has already been unprecedented pushback against Israel from Joe Biden who is clearly worried about his own reelection chances. I.e. the loss of public support is already causing a loss of political support. I'm a fairly liberal Israeli on these issues, but I think it's worth mentioning that the "unprecedented" pushback also comes after the unprecedented support Biden gave Israel. And the pushback is in essence, mostly correct. > Acquiring nukes keeps getting easier, improvement in material science, electronics, etc. Even North Korea has them now, in my view the only thing keeping Iran from getting nukes is the ability to use them as a bargaining chip. Unless it's Israelis plan to completely destroy Iran then taking away that bargaining chip would just end up with Iran getting nukes. Yeah. That's a problem. I have no idea. I'm hoping Israel and the US have actual plans to stop Iran getting nukes, but what do I know? I will mention that the fact that getting dangerous weapons in general is getting so much easier, is making me very scared for humanity as a whole. (See e.g. the issue I think most of humanity should be worried about, which is reducing existential risk, with the most obvious current problem being AI safety.)

cjbgkagh 3y ago
I view things through a realism/realpolitik lense. China was supposed to be US ally against Russia in order to have a Chinese - Russian conflict to keep both week. But China became too powerful in their own right and the Ukraine conflict has now created a strong alliance between China and Russia. Much of realpolitik is to keep both your enemies and allies in constant conflict with each other, even secretly pitting allies against other allies, and secretly weakening allies by promoting the worst in them. Suitably paranoid hegemons consider peace to be a time where countries build up strength for later use against them. On that basis I consider Israel an ally of convenience with the actual intent of using the 'unsinkable carrier' in preventing peace in the middle east and keeping the region in a weakened state. I guess unsinkable carrier is better than the reason of the baptists support of Israel. To remind people, it is so the jews can all die there in another holocaust to fulfil a biblical end-times prophecy and usher in the apocalypses where the baptists will ascend to heaven. Of course it's in Israel's interest to go along with both of these - for now. The unprecedented support was assumed, the unprecedented pushback is new. And now Israel has been prevented from re-retaliating against Iran. This is a Suez Canal moment, where the 'special bond' between UK and US in effect ended and it led to a deep crisis of confidence in the UK and an deep sustained economic downturn. Unlike Israel the UK wasn't surrounded by hostile entities seeking their destruction. Iran has been playing a long game for a long time, just like Israel was with Gaza. There may not be any good options left, I did think that a quick and decisive war against Iran to be the last viable option but Israel is apparently being prevented from doing so. On a balance of probabilities I don't think Israel would have won that conflict but there was at least some chance which I think is more of a chance than they have now. I always viewed Oct7th incursion as a trap to invoke the exact response it did, I think by overestimating their support Israel has now found themselves in a position they're unable to get out of, hense trapped. I could be wrong, but I don't know how yet, and I am interested to see how it pans out. Sadly it seems that I wasn't wrong about Ukraines chances against Russia. Maybe a rapid de-escalation preceded by scapegoating Netanyahu is still possible?

by edanm 3y ago

cjbgkagh 3y ago

I view things through a realism/realpolitik lense. China was supposed to be US ally against Russia in order to have a Chinese - Russian conflict to keep both week. But China became too powerful in their own right and the Ukraine conflict has now created a strong alliance between China and Russia. Much of realpolitik is to keep both your enemies and allies in constant conflict with each other, even secretly pitting allies against other allies, and secretly weakening allies by promoting the worst in them. Suitably paranoid hegemons consider peace to be a time where countries build up strength for later use against them. On that basis I consider Israel an ally of convenience with the actual intent of using the 'unsinkable carrier' in preventing peace in the middle east and keeping the region in a weakened state. I guess unsinkable carrier is better than the reason of the baptists support of Israel. To remind people, it is so the jews can all die there in another holocaust to fulfil a biblical end-times prophecy and usher in the apocalypses where the baptists will ascend to heaven. Of course it's in Israel's interest to go along with both of these - for now. The unprecedented support was assumed, the unprecedented pushback is new. And now Israel has been prevented from re-retaliating against Iran. This is a Suez Canal moment, where the 'special bond' between UK and US in effect ended and it led to a deep crisis of confidence in the UK and an deep sustained economic downturn. Unlike Israel the UK wasn't surrounded by hostile entities seeking their destruction. Iran has been playing a long game for a long time, just like Israel was with Gaza. There may not be any good options left, I did think that a quick and decisive war against Iran to be the last viable option but Israel is apparently being prevented from doing so. On a balance of probabilities I don't think Israel would have won that conflict but there was at least some chance which I think is more of a chance than they have now. I always viewed Oct7th incursion as a trap to invoke the exact response it did, I think by overestimating their support Israel has now found themselves in a position they're unable to get out of, hense trapped. I could be wrong, but I don't know how yet, and I am interested to see how it pans out. Sadly it seems that I wasn't wrong about Ukraines chances against Russia. Maybe a rapid de-escalation preceded by scapegoating Netanyahu is still possible?