4 ms·

Just got cheap last-minute flights on a United 737-Max-9. The next cheapest flight was $3500 for a family of 4; this one was $1400. Sometimes it pays to risk

Just got cheap last-minute flights on a United 737-Max-9. The next cheapest flight was $3500 for a family of 4; this one was $1400. Sometimes it pays to risk your life on airplanes other people won't fly on. If you figure 200 people on the plane (it wasn't full) and they each paid $500 less than market rates, that's $100K that they lost on one flight alone.

foobar1962 3y ago
> Sometimes it pays to risk your life on airplanes other people won't fly on. We have a winner!
- bb88 3y ago
  Reverse lottery.
  - compootr 3y ago
    only reverse for the airline :)
- CoastalCoder 3y ago
  > We have a winner! We won't know that until they de-plane.
  - fransje26 3y ago
    Oh, de-planing they will. The question is more: at what speed?
- orbisvicis 3y ago
  Just bring a parachute. Then, deregulate the industry and make safety a personal responsibility.
  - fransje26 3y ago
    Pikachu face when you find out, in free-fall, that the parachute manufacturers took the same approach to safety..
    - orbisvicis 3y ago
      Heh. There are defects that are impossible to catch. But if what I've read about parachutes is accurate, you're supposed to inspect them before use as they have a shelf life. And that's the problem with deregulation. It's inefficient because it places a greater burden on everyone and therefore a greater burden on society. Nobody has time for that. Except rich people - they can hire personal parachute checkers.
      - fransje26 3y ago
        > And that's the problem with deregulation. It's inefficient because it places a greater burden on everyone and therefore a greater burden on society. And it dilutes responsibility by hiding defects behind plausible deniability. Like what happened after the Lion Air crash, when Boeing tired to put the blame on poor piloting skills, bad training and a sub-par, 3rd world company.
lettergram 3y ago
The 737 Max was released in 2014 and has flown millions of flights, there's 1400 planes. Here's from Wikipedia: > After one year of service, 130 MAXs had been delivered to 28 customers, logging over 41,000 flights in 118,000 hours and flying over 6.5 million https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX That's 315.38 flights on average per plane per year (41,000 flights in year / 130 planes) How many crashes have there been...? 2 or 3? Let's assume (very very rough estimate) we have similar averages across 1400 planes, that's 441,532 flights last year. If we assume two 2 crashes per year. So you'll have a safe flight 99.9995% of the time.
- dev_tty01 3y ago
  In 2022, globally, there was one accident per 664,186 flights. [1] That includes a lot of poorly funded airlines and a lot of very old aircraft. The 737 Max numbers you present are worse than the global average when they should be much better for a well designed modern aircraft. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/31529/most-airplane-accidents-happen-during-landing/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31529/most-airplane-accidents... This is not even considering the numerous documented issues with their quality control programs. Also, the global average I referred to are for accidents, not crashes like your numbers.
  - noirbot 3y ago
    Sure, but A. most people don't know or care to avoid Boeing and B. the odds are still really good, and probably safer than driving and quite a bit faster. It's not to say we shouldn't do better, but I really doubt that public demand shifts are doing much of anything to apply pressure. If anything, the couple days airlines had to spend with the 737s grounded did more FAA-enforced financial damage than the collective of consumers is likely to bring to bear. If there's a trip I need to make, I'm not spending 3x the money to maybe not be on a 737. There's also just the incident treadmill. Boeing is getting all the bad news now for good reasons, but how confident are we that there isn't a similar Airbus issue that'll come out soon? The 737 seemed like a fine plane before a few years ago. If we're playing a pure game of statistics, the 737 looks bad, but maybe it's just a really unlucky streak? Even terribly designed products that shouldn't have been allowed work fine a lot of the time.
xyst 3y ago
$3,500 to fly in cattle class? crazy. I wouldn't even pay the $1,400. But I guess when you got to get home, you got to get home.
- javawizard 3y ago
  > for a family of 4 may be the bit you're missing :)
dheera 3y ago
Oh great, so rich people get safer airplanes nowadays? Goddamn capitalism.
- cheibic73 3y ago
  > Oh great, so rich people get safer airplanes nowadays? And you get better healthcare than poor people in Africa. Check your god damn privilege you rich **.
- zeroonetwothree 3y ago
  This is probably the smallest possible advantage of rich people you could have found to complain about.
- genocidicbunny 3y ago
  A lot of rich people fly on private/charter flights, which are statistically more dangerous due to less oversight, laxer rules and requirements for pilots.
reacharavindh 3y ago
I’d like to sell you a car that costs $3k less than its market value. Just that I removed the seat belts and airbags. If you look at the statistics, lives lost per over total number miles driven in cars all over the world, the likelihood of an accident within the 30 miles of your drive is very low. So, why don’t you take the discount? Sometimes crap is just crap. One can always use statistics to convince themselves that crap is gold if you look a certain way.
- fransje26 3y ago
  Hey! They've been selling some of these lately. Some model with accelerator pedals getting stuck, and full system shutdowns, including breaks, when driving. Lots of buyers though..
- Asraelite 3y ago
  The probability of dying in a car accident vs. a plane crash isn't even close to the same order of magnitude.

foobar1962 3y ago

> Sometimes it pays to risk your life on airplanes other people won't fly on. We have a winner!

bb88 3y ago
Reverse lottery.
- compootr 3y ago
  only reverse for the airline :)
CoastalCoder 3y ago
> We have a winner! We won't know that until they de-plane.
- fransje26 3y ago
  Oh, de-planing they will. The question is more: at what speed?
orbisvicis 3y ago
Just bring a parachute. Then, deregulate the industry and make safety a personal responsibility.
- fransje26 3y ago
  Pikachu face when you find out, in free-fall, that the parachute manufacturers took the same approach to safety..
  - orbisvicis 3y ago
    Heh. There are defects that are impossible to catch. But if what I've read about parachutes is accurate, you're supposed to inspect them before use as they have a shelf life. And that's the problem with deregulation. It's inefficient because it places a greater burden on everyone and therefore a greater burden on society. Nobody has time for that. Except rich people - they can hire personal parachute checkers.
    - fransje26 3y ago
      > And that's the problem with deregulation. It's inefficient because it places a greater burden on everyone and therefore a greater burden on society. And it dilutes responsibility by hiding defects behind plausible deniability. Like what happened after the Lion Air crash, when Boeing tired to put the blame on poor piloting skills, bad training and a sub-par, 3rd world company.

lettergram 3y ago

The 737 Max was released in 2014 and has flown millions of flights, there's 1400 planes. Here's from Wikipedia: > After one year of service, 130 MAXs had been delivered to 28 customers, logging over 41,000 flights in 118,000 hours and flying over 6.5 million https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX That's 315.38 flights on average per plane per year (41,000 flights in year / 130 planes) How many crashes have there been...? 2 or 3? Let's assume (very very rough estimate) we have similar averages across 1400 planes, that's 441,532 flights last year. If we assume two 2 crashes per year. So you'll have a safe flight 99.9995% of the time.

dev_tty01 3y ago
In 2022, globally, there was one accident per 664,186 flights. [1] That includes a lot of poorly funded airlines and a lot of very old aircraft. The 737 Max numbers you present are worse than the global average when they should be much better for a well designed modern aircraft. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/31529/most-airplane-accidents-happen-during-landing/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31529/most-airplane-accidents... This is not even considering the numerous documented issues with their quality control programs. Also, the global average I referred to are for accidents, not crashes like your numbers.
- noirbot 3y ago
  Sure, but A. most people don't know or care to avoid Boeing and B. the odds are still really good, and probably safer than driving and quite a bit faster. It's not to say we shouldn't do better, but I really doubt that public demand shifts are doing much of anything to apply pressure. If anything, the couple days airlines had to spend with the 737s grounded did more FAA-enforced financial damage than the collective of consumers is likely to bring to bear. If there's a trip I need to make, I'm not spending 3x the money to maybe not be on a 737. There's also just the incident treadmill. Boeing is getting all the bad news now for good reasons, but how confident are we that there isn't a similar Airbus issue that'll come out soon? The 737 seemed like a fine plane before a few years ago. If we're playing a pure game of statistics, the 737 looks bad, but maybe it's just a really unlucky streak? Even terribly designed products that shouldn't have been allowed work fine a lot of the time.

xyst 3y ago

$3,500 to fly in cattle class? crazy. I wouldn't even pay the $1,400. But I guess when you got to get home, you got to get home.

javawizard 3y ago
> for a family of 4 may be the bit you're missing :)

dheera 3y ago

Oh great, so rich people get safer airplanes nowadays? Goddamn capitalism.

cheibic73 3y ago
> Oh great, so rich people get safer airplanes nowadays? And you get better healthcare than poor people in Africa. Check your god damn privilege you rich **.
zeroonetwothree 3y ago
This is probably the smallest possible advantage of rich people you could have found to complain about.
genocidicbunny 3y ago
A lot of rich people fly on private/charter flights, which are statistically more dangerous due to less oversight, laxer rules and requirements for pilots.

reacharavindh 3y ago

I’d like to sell you a car that costs $3k less than its market value. Just that I removed the seat belts and airbags. If you look at the statistics, lives lost per over total number miles driven in cars all over the world, the likelihood of an accident within the 30 miles of your drive is very low. So, why don’t you take the discount? Sometimes crap is just crap. One can always use statistics to convince themselves that crap is gold if you look a certain way.

fransje26 3y ago
Hey! They've been selling some of these lately. Some model with accelerator pedals getting stuck, and full system shutdowns, including breaks, when driving. Lots of buyers though..
Asraelite 3y ago
The probability of dying in a car accident vs. a plane crash isn't even close to the same order of magnitude.