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I think witnessing someone being shot is a good metric because it is factual. Either you saw someone being shot or your didn't, no ambiguity there, and no matte

by GuB-42 3y ago

I think witnessing someone being shot is a good metric because it is factual. Either you saw someone being shot or your didn't, no ambiguity there, and no matter where you live, someone being shot is someone being shot. Not like "uninvolved parents" and "bullying" which are open to interpretation. This metric is also a proxy for living in a violent environment. It correlates with wealth, but it is also kind of the point. Children who lived in a wealthy environment are better off as adults in terms of income. It is not that obvious, as rich kids could simply burn through their family wealth.

ip26 3y ago
It’s likely strongly subject to Goodheart’s Law, however. In other words, there are probably many things you could do to improve the goal (e.g. figure out how to keep kids from seeing the violence) without improving outcomes for these kids (because they remain just as poor)
- wyre 3y ago
  Not really? All things being equal a child that sees someone get shot will grow up more traumatized than a child that does not.
  - kvdveer 3y ago
    That makes intuitive sense, but that's not enough. Many untrue things make intuitive sense, especially when it comes to poverty. Is there any research that shows that having witnessed someone get shot affects future prospects INDEPENDENT of the factors that lead to the kid witnessing someone get shot?
ernst_klim 3y ago
> This metric is also a proxy for living in a violent environment. Probably, probably not. The probabilities of witnessing someone being shot is extremely low in both environments. If amount of people who are living in violent environment is much lower, it may be that a person who witnessed someone being shot is more probable from a good environment. https://www.anesi.com/bayes.htm https://www.anesi.com/bayes.htm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM

by GuB-42 3y ago

ip26 3y ago

It’s likely strongly subject to Goodheart’s Law, however. In other words, there are probably many things you could do to improve the goal (e.g. figure out how to keep kids from seeing the violence) without improving outcomes for these kids (because they remain just as poor)

wyre 3y ago
Not really? All things being equal a child that sees someone get shot will grow up more traumatized than a child that does not.
- kvdveer 3y ago
  That makes intuitive sense, but that's not enough. Many untrue things make intuitive sense, especially when it comes to poverty. Is there any research that shows that having witnessed someone get shot affects future prospects INDEPENDENT of the factors that lead to the kid witnessing someone get shot?

ernst_klim 3y ago

> This metric is also a proxy for living in a violent environment. Probably, probably not. The probabilities of witnessing someone being shot is extremely low in both environments. If amount of people who are living in violent environment is much lower, it may be that a person who witnessed someone being shot is more probable from a good environment. https://www.anesi.com/bayes.htm https://www.anesi.com/bayes.htm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM