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A prediction - by 2030 there will be another temperance movement. This time it will be disaffected wives who don't want their husbands betting on sports. 75%

A prediction - by 2030 there will be another temperance movement. This time it will be disaffected wives who don't want their husbands betting on sports. 75% confidence

BitwiseFool 3y ago
At the rate we're going I suspect there will be far fewer married couples.
- interludead 3y ago
  There are some tendencies in that field too...
htrp 3y ago
We're just going to speedrun the UK's gambling problems. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50828086 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50828086
- danpalmer 3y ago
  In the UK it's highly community specific. I don't gamble, I don't know anyone who does, I don't think I even know anyone who's buying lottery tickets and they're about the most normalised form of gambling. However, you do see a lot of gambling shops around, and we get news stories of it being a huge problem. I think if you're not based in the UK it would seem like it's a much bigger deal than it really is to many of the population. It's a big deal to a (small?) subset of the population.
  - htrp 3y ago
    I'd venture it was highly community specific when you had to go to the local paddypower (pre-smartphone gambling), but now you have canary wharf traders putting in bets on their phone in between trades on their terminals.
    - danpalmer 3y ago
      Perhaps, but I'd say that traders on Smarkets are not a particularly large market. I still think that Paddy Power/etc and sports betting or the machines you get in pubs are likely the majority of the market, but that it's massively skewed towards specific demographics.
  - Earw0rm 3y ago
    Yep, and even most of the gambling here is relatively harmless: - Small stakes sports betting. - Lottery. - Scratchards. (As with drugs - most of the consumption is people smoking small/medium amounts of weed, or perhaps taking stronger stuff maybe once a month.) There are some people that are hooked, and I've no doubt it causes a lot of misery in certain communities. I doubt there'd be so many betting shops without the addicts. Had friends who worked in those shops as students and they saw some pretty sad stuff. We'd be better off as a society without the betting shops, but now it'd probably all just go online and perhaps become something even more pernicious.
  - walthamstow 3y ago
    > I don't gamble, I don't know anyone who does May I guess that you are not a soccer football fan? If you were I think this comment would be different. Football fans have been bombarded with gambling adverts for 20+ years.
    - danpalmer 3y ago
      I'm not, but I think while the majority of UK men "follow" football and support teams, most are not going to games, most are not watching every game from their team, and I'd guess most are not betting. I have plenty of family members who would consider themselves into football and happily have conversations about it, but who I haven't heard mention betting on it.
      - walthamstow 3y ago
        From the way you pepper this and other comments with 'I think' or 'I guess', I am getting the idea that you are not in touch with this issue at all. You don't know anyone who gambles, it's a demographic thing, so it's not a big deal. Gambling is a very big deal in the UK. 40% of the population gambles on non-lottery at least once a year, 27% have done so in the last 4 weeks. 0.5% are problem gamblers and 7% have been affected by someone else's gambling. (all stats from Govt gambling harms review) The highest-paid person in the UK is the head of a betting company. MPs are openly (Benton) and quietly selling themselves to the industy, who have succeeded in delaying reviews and watering down rules. The parent post to yours is quite right to say that the US will inherit all of our problems in this area (if anything it will be worse) and I'm not sure you have the information to wave it away as you did.
        danpalmer 3y ago
        I don't think we're disagreeing much here. I'm not surprised that 27% of the UK are regular gamblers, my point is that it's not that evenly spread throughout the population. As you said, it's a demographic thing (although I'm trying hard not to target and demonise a particular group here). My point is not that it's uncommon, but rather that it is very much not a feature of UK life or a defining part of culture for many people, perhaps a majority. We have a big problem with it in aggregate, but the coverage would suggest that this is something that everyone in the UK feels a part of, and that's just not the case. The coverage of the US situation seems to suggest that the demographic split is quite different – that it's perhaps a younger crowd and perhaps not tracking so much with socio-economic status, where the UK mostly skews in different ways. There are similarities like our lotteries though. I think the US will get worse as they deregulate, although I suspect as it's in some ways a newer industry there it'll probably look a little different to ours. The problems will be the same though.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    Problem gambling in bookies in the UK is kind of class-aligned; AIUI other forms of gambling, particularly crypto/meme stocks, is less so, though.
- nebula8804 3y ago
  Don't we just speedrun every bad thing the UK does? The right ward shift towards things like Brexit, torpoeding viable leftist candidates, the rural vs urban divide, and the allure of the union wanting to break up.
  - walthamstow 3y ago
    It is very much a two-way street. Next month after 15 years of voting in UK elections I will for the first time be required to produce photo ID.
    - nebula8804 3y ago
      At least you still have universal health care...for now.
BoxFour 3y ago
Several trends exist already actually that might qualify as "temperance" movements. In mainstream culture, it appears that Generation Z consumes less alcohol compared to earlier generations (although they might be substituting it with other intoxicants). More niche but still present are the peculiar trends associated with right-wing groups, 'nofap' and similar movements. If you're referring specifically to a movement involving spending money, I agree and anticipate that emerging as well, probably merging with one of the above two.
- safety1st 3y ago
  Jesus christ. Even nofap is being called a right wing movement now? Is this like when the media was associating fitness with the right wing and was calling gyms neo-Nazi recruiting centers? How degenerate do we have to become in order to claim our liberal creds under this bizarre zeitgeist?
  - subjectsigma 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - TheFreim 3y ago
    Self improvement is more likely to be demonized by "left wing" people and promoted by "right wing" people in my experience.
    - BoxFour 3y ago
      I've never seen any suggestion in scientific literature that "nofap" is beneficial or healthy in any way that could be considered self-improvement, though I'm open to the idea.
      - safety1st 3y ago
        Too much of anything is unhealthy. From what I've seen of that community it's basically guys who are addicted to porn and masturbation, they do it compulsively, potentially for multiple hours every day, instead of doing other things. If they change that habit they'll almost certainly benefit.
andai 3y ago
The half of women that aren't predicted to be single and childless by 2030? That does make sense, that group would bias towards conservative.
- AlgorithmicTime 3y ago
  [dead]
exabrial 3y ago
I thought this comment was insightful, but I think it's worth pointing out that the other side (females) are also getting pressure applied _not_ to be "wives".
llm_trw 3y ago
Very bold of you to assume that there will be enough married women by 2030 to start a movement.
- ryandrake 3y ago
  Or that women will even have sufficient rights by then. The trend in that respect has been disturbingly downward lately, and always seems to be one election away from a sharp regression.

A prediction - by 2030 there will be another temperance movement. This time it will be disaffected wives who don't want their husbands betting on sports. 75% confidence

BitwiseFool 3y ago

At the rate we're going I suspect there will be far fewer married couples.

interludead 3y ago
There are some tendencies in that field too...

htrp 3y ago

We're just going to speedrun the UK's gambling problems. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50828086 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50828086

danpalmer 3y ago
In the UK it's highly community specific. I don't gamble, I don't know anyone who does, I don't think I even know anyone who's buying lottery tickets and they're about the most normalised form of gambling. However, you do see a lot of gambling shops around, and we get news stories of it being a huge problem. I think if you're not based in the UK it would seem like it's a much bigger deal than it really is to many of the population. It's a big deal to a (small?) subset of the population.
- htrp 3y ago
  I'd venture it was highly community specific when you had to go to the local paddypower (pre-smartphone gambling), but now you have canary wharf traders putting in bets on their phone in between trades on their terminals.
  - danpalmer 3y ago
    Perhaps, but I'd say that traders on Smarkets are not a particularly large market. I still think that Paddy Power/etc and sports betting or the machines you get in pubs are likely the majority of the market, but that it's massively skewed towards specific demographics.
- Earw0rm 3y ago
  Yep, and even most of the gambling here is relatively harmless: - Small stakes sports betting. - Lottery. - Scratchards. (As with drugs - most of the consumption is people smoking small/medium amounts of weed, or perhaps taking stronger stuff maybe once a month.) There are some people that are hooked, and I've no doubt it causes a lot of misery in certain communities. I doubt there'd be so many betting shops without the addicts. Had friends who worked in those shops as students and they saw some pretty sad stuff. We'd be better off as a society without the betting shops, but now it'd probably all just go online and perhaps become something even more pernicious.
- walthamstow 3y ago
  > I don't gamble, I don't know anyone who does May I guess that you are not a soccer football fan? If you were I think this comment would be different. Football fans have been bombarded with gambling adverts for 20+ years.
  - danpalmer 3y ago
    I'm not, but I think while the majority of UK men "follow" football and support teams, most are not going to games, most are not watching every game from their team, and I'd guess most are not betting. I have plenty of family members who would consider themselves into football and happily have conversations about it, but who I haven't heard mention betting on it.
    - walthamstow 3y ago
      From the way you pepper this and other comments with 'I think' or 'I guess', I am getting the idea that you are not in touch with this issue at all. You don't know anyone who gambles, it's a demographic thing, so it's not a big deal. Gambling is a very big deal in the UK. 40% of the population gambles on non-lottery at least once a year, 27% have done so in the last 4 weeks. 0.5% are problem gamblers and 7% have been affected by someone else's gambling. (all stats from Govt gambling harms review) The highest-paid person in the UK is the head of a betting company. MPs are openly (Benton) and quietly selling themselves to the industy, who have succeeded in delaying reviews and watering down rules. The parent post to yours is quite right to say that the US will inherit all of our problems in this area (if anything it will be worse) and I'm not sure you have the information to wave it away as you did.
      - danpalmer 3y ago
        I don't think we're disagreeing much here. I'm not surprised that 27% of the UK are regular gamblers, my point is that it's not that evenly spread throughout the population. As you said, it's a demographic thing (although I'm trying hard not to target and demonise a particular group here). My point is not that it's uncommon, but rather that it is very much not a feature of UK life or a defining part of culture for many people, perhaps a majority. We have a big problem with it in aggregate, but the coverage would suggest that this is something that everyone in the UK feels a part of, and that's just not the case. The coverage of the US situation seems to suggest that the demographic split is quite different – that it's perhaps a younger crowd and perhaps not tracking so much with socio-economic status, where the UK mostly skews in different ways. There are similarities like our lotteries though. I think the US will get worse as they deregulate, although I suspect as it's in some ways a newer industry there it'll probably look a little different to ours. The problems will be the same though.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  Problem gambling in bookies in the UK is kind of class-aligned; AIUI other forms of gambling, particularly crypto/meme stocks, is less so, though.
nebula8804 3y ago
Don't we just speedrun every bad thing the UK does? The right ward shift towards things like Brexit, torpoeding viable leftist candidates, the rural vs urban divide, and the allure of the union wanting to break up.
- walthamstow 3y ago
  It is very much a two-way street. Next month after 15 years of voting in UK elections I will for the first time be required to produce photo ID.
  - nebula8804 3y ago
    At least you still have universal health care...for now.

BoxFour 3y ago

Several trends exist already actually that might qualify as "temperance" movements. In mainstream culture, it appears that Generation Z consumes less alcohol compared to earlier generations (although they might be substituting it with other intoxicants). More niche but still present are the peculiar trends associated with right-wing groups, 'nofap' and similar movements. If you're referring specifically to a movement involving spending money, I agree and anticipate that emerging as well, probably merging with one of the above two.

safety1st 3y ago
Jesus christ. Even nofap is being called a right wing movement now? Is this like when the media was associating fitness with the right wing and was calling gyms neo-Nazi recruiting centers? How degenerate do we have to become in order to claim our liberal creds under this bizarre zeitgeist?
- subjectsigma 3y ago
  [flagged]
- TheFreim 3y ago
  Self improvement is more likely to be demonized by "left wing" people and promoted by "right wing" people in my experience.
  - BoxFour 3y ago
    I've never seen any suggestion in scientific literature that "nofap" is beneficial or healthy in any way that could be considered self-improvement, though I'm open to the idea.
    - safety1st 3y ago
      Too much of anything is unhealthy. From what I've seen of that community it's basically guys who are addicted to porn and masturbation, they do it compulsively, potentially for multiple hours every day, instead of doing other things. If they change that habit they'll almost certainly benefit.

andai 3y ago

The half of women that aren't predicted to be single and childless by 2030? That does make sense, that group would bias towards conservative.

AlgorithmicTime 3y ago
[dead]

exabrial 3y ago

I thought this comment was insightful, but I think it's worth pointing out that the other side (females) are also getting pressure applied _not_ to be "wives".

llm_trw 3y ago

Very bold of you to assume that there will be enough married women by 2030 to start a movement.

ryandrake 3y ago
Or that women will even have sufficient rights by then. The trend in that respect has been disturbingly downward lately, and always seems to be one election away from a sharp regression.