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> Iran having failed yet to do so damaging but fixable I am not sure Iran has failed to build nukes. Some countries choose the strategy of being "threshold nuc

> Iran having failed yet to do so damaging but fixable I am not sure Iran has failed to build nukes. Some countries choose the strategy of being "threshold nuclear states", also called "nuclear latency" [1]. With this strategy you can extract more concessions for not crossing the threshold, than if you already crossed the threshold. Once you do build a bomb, what is next? You need to build a stockpile, and that can be quite expensive. Israel is in a different position. Israel doesn't need to extract concessions, it really intends to use its nukes in certain scenarios, because it is under an existential threat. But Iran is not under an existential threat, and they know that. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency

rapjr9 3y ago
Seems possible Iran bought some nukes from Russia. Russia wanted drones and missiles, Iran may have set the price for them to be a few nukes or help in getting nukes onto missiles.
- credit_guy 3y ago
  That is extremely unlikely, for several reasons. The first is that Russia has many enemies and it doesn't like the idea of some of them getting their hands on nukes. Second, the great geostrategic ambition of Russia is to get a warm ocean port, or, to use the metaphor they like, to "wash their boots in the Indian Ocean". That was within their reach immediately after WW2, and resulted in the Iran crisis of 1946 [1]. There are rumors that Truman threatened the USSR with "dropping one on them" [2] if they don't retreat from Iran, and they are probably unfounded, but the nuclear threat was certainly there, and Stalin certainly acted on it. Russia wants to preserve the possibility that one day they will be able to march again towards the Indian Ocean. Last: nukes are useful for a nation is you demonstrate that you have them. If Iran has nukes right now, keeping that a secret does not serve its interests in the best way. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_crisis_of_1946 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_crisis_of_1946 [2] https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/iran.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/iran.htm

rapjr9 3y ago

Seems possible Iran bought some nukes from Russia. Russia wanted drones and missiles, Iran may have set the price for them to be a few nukes or help in getting nukes onto missiles.

credit_guy 3y ago
That is extremely unlikely, for several reasons. The first is that Russia has many enemies and it doesn't like the idea of some of them getting their hands on nukes. Second, the great geostrategic ambition of Russia is to get a warm ocean port, or, to use the metaphor they like, to "wash their boots in the Indian Ocean". That was within their reach immediately after WW2, and resulted in the Iran crisis of 1946 [1]. There are rumors that Truman threatened the USSR with "dropping one on them" [2] if they don't retreat from Iran, and they are probably unfounded, but the nuclear threat was certainly there, and Stalin certainly acted on it. Russia wants to preserve the possibility that one day they will be able to march again towards the Indian Ocean. Last: nukes are useful for a nation is you demonstrate that you have them. If Iran has nukes right now, keeping that a secret does not serve its interests in the best way. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_crisis_of_1946 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_crisis_of_1946 [2] https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/iran.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/iran.htm