A lot of propaganda from both sides but figures being thrown around put some numbers to guestimate bounds in less than credible manner. Given Iran at least coul

A lot of propaganda from both sides but figures being thrown around put some numbers to guestimate bounds in less than credible manner. Given Iran at least could coordinate mixed salvo of ~300 ordnances. May or may not have shit industrial base with 50% dud rates. Israel+Co, missile defense on ballistics largely works. Which should be expected if one follows US FTM interceptor tests. Subsonics being completely vulnerable should also be assumed, TLAMs has been shot down with reliable consistency in last 10 years, including by RU. Rough interpretations depending on how pessimistic/optimistic one is of each side's narrative. One end of spectrum is coalition took out 95% (evidence of ~10 hits) of ballistics assuming no duds and all arrived in IL airspace. Other end of spectrum is coalition took out 70-75% assuming allegations of 15+ hits if only 50% made it to IL. High Iranian duds makes ABM performance worse. Also don't know if penetrations happened because interception failure or they ran out of interceptors - i.e. coalition had ~100 interceptors with "99"% interception rate but ran out of interceptors which allowed tail end of salvo to land uncontested. Was Iran competent enough to calibrate strike to just overwhelm IL defense? That seems to be in keeping with narrative that IR wanted to signal they can hit Israel without massive escalation. Plus now IR has data now on most of IL missile defense network for follow up strikes assuming IL +co can replenish interceptors in time. Take away is defensive has equal or greater missile defense coverage as the entire country of IL + co, one of the densest network of missile defense : geography size ratio in the world, with uncontested assets in region to intercept, multiple days of warning, a ~100 garbage-adequate ballistic salvo timed with subsonic used to draw magazine fire, is large enough to slip through and potentially hit target(s). Iran's attack validates notion that 10s-100s million of drones/missiles can deplete billions in missile defense and take out strategic target worth billions - good chance ~5 missiles kills/mission kills a carrier. This is bad (but not novel) news for countries less capable than Iran, and good news for countries that's more capable. IMO what we have seen in UKR, Red Sea and Israel is missile defense can reliably be saturated by 100s of ordnances, given proper ISR, which TBF only less than handful countries is capable of delivering in a coordinated package. Even then US DDGs can't reliably prevent Houthis from hitting ships. How many assets/locations has as much missile defense as Israel + multiple in theatre US/UK basing and multiple DDGs? Arguably none.