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Pure ineffectual saber rattling. If it wasn’t, they’d first hit air defense installations. They know where they are. Iran wanted Israel to not intercept just a

by ein0p 3y ago

Pure ineffectual saber rattling. If it wasn’t, they’d first hit air defense installations. They know where they are. Iran wanted Israel to not intercept just a few of the things it knew it couldn’t intercept. It’d be absolutely moronic for Israel to respond to something so obvious. Next time they might not be so “lucky”.

rokkitmensch 3y ago
50M in offensive spend to burn through 1.3BN in defensive munitions seems highly effective to me. Great intel-gathering op.
- ein0p 3y ago
  That was far more than 50M. Heavy ballistic rockets aren’t cheap even in Iran. And Iran could have used them to cause several times the amount of damage just by hitting a couple of AD deployment points. I think Israel understands that too, hence the difficulty with deciding how or whether to respond
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    So am I off by one order of magnitude or three?
    - ein0p 3y ago
      Definitely at least one order of magnitude off. For comparison, one Patriot battery can cost over a billion dollars, and they hit none. Not because they couldn’t (it doesn’t intercept hypersonics, which Iran has) but because they chose not to.
pseudo0 3y ago
Apparently they provided 72 hours advance notice to neighbors (who probably tipped off the US and Israel, given the US warnings of an imminent attack). The Iranians presumably expected the information to leak. The US also had naval and air assets parked in the region to assist. It's hard to imagine a more favorable scenario for the defender. That makes it rather dangerous to try to generalize the performance in this instance to future events. It also makes this whole exercise seem like dramatic saber-rattling rather than a serious effort to damage Israel's military capabilities. > Iraqi, Turkish and Jordanian officials each said Iran had provided early warning of the attack last week, including some details. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks-2024-04-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-att...

by ein0p 3y ago

rokkitmensch 3y ago

50M in offensive spend to burn through 1.3BN in defensive munitions seems highly effective to me. Great intel-gathering op.

ein0p 3y ago
That was far more than 50M. Heavy ballistic rockets aren’t cheap even in Iran. And Iran could have used them to cause several times the amount of damage just by hitting a couple of AD deployment points. I think Israel understands that too, hence the difficulty with deciding how or whether to respond
- rokkitmensch 3y ago
  So am I off by one order of magnitude or three?
  - ein0p 3y ago
    Definitely at least one order of magnitude off. For comparison, one Patriot battery can cost over a billion dollars, and they hit none. Not because they couldn’t (it doesn’t intercept hypersonics, which Iran has) but because they chose not to.

pseudo0 3y ago

Apparently they provided 72 hours advance notice to neighbors (who probably tipped off the US and Israel, given the US warnings of an imminent attack). The Iranians presumably expected the information to leak. The US also had naval and air assets parked in the region to assist. It's hard to imagine a more favorable scenario for the defender. That makes it rather dangerous to try to generalize the performance in this instance to future events. It also makes this whole exercise seem like dramatic saber-rattling rather than a serious effort to damage Israel's military capabilities. > Iraqi, Turkish and Jordanian officials each said Iran had provided early warning of the attack last week, including some details. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks-2024-04-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-att...