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Object that slammed into Florida home was space junk for ISS, NASA confirms

177 points by anigbrowl 3y ago

koolba 3y ago
> The cylindrical piece of space junk is made of a metallic alloy called Inconel, they added. It weighs 1.6 pounds (0.7 kg) and measures 4 inches (10 centimeters) high by 1.6 inches (4 cm) wide. I’m no rocket scientist, but I’m pretty sure that would kill you if you got hit. Though we’ll have to run a couple more tests to be sure. Home owner says it tore through two floors: https://twitter.com/Alejandro0tero/status/1768729031493427225 https://twitter.com/Alejandro0tero/status/176872903149342722...
- bhhaskin 3y ago
  You would have to have some pretty bad luck to be hit by space junk like that. Not saying it's a good thing or anything, just that the odds are pretty astronomical.
  - the_real_cher 3y ago
    Good point. The chances are truly out of this world.
    - iJohnDoe 3y ago
      Yet possible as proven here. Hitting a home is bad enough. The chances will probably increase the more space debris is handled in this way. Also, tell the family they just have “bad luck”.
      - kylecazar 3y ago
        They're making space puns
      - dmix 3y ago
        Homes are much larger than people and people are always in their homes. And even if you were home it’s not like it would 100% penetrate a floor you’re on or wall or whatever.
        nier 3y ago
        The linked Twitter post above contains at least one picture of a fully penetrated floor.
        ornornor 3y ago
        US houses are notoriously not as well built as in other places in the world. Where I live at the moment for instance is concrete all around, including the roof. I would be surprised if this falling on it would do anything at all and surely wouldn’t penetrate.
        Vecr 3y ago
        Are you sure about that? It's not literally Rods From the Gods but it's a high density high heat resistance metal chunk, going very fast.
        ornornor 3y ago
        I’m not certain, no. But I’d be curious to see. In my building, each floor is around 20–30 cm thick concrete.
        tutfbhuf 3y ago
        If a barrier can stop a .50 cal BMG, then it should be sufficient to stop space debris. 20-30 cm of concrete should be enough.
        ben_w 3y ago
        I have no idea how fast it was going when it hit, but as it is more than 10x the mass of a 50 cal, I wouldn't rely on the assumption that protection from the latter is also protection from the former.
      - chipdart 3y ago
        > Also, tell the family they just have “bad luck”. It's not wrong, though. The Earth's surface is slightly over 500 million km². Let's say that something landing within a 10m radius of you represents a hit. That radius is about 314 m², or 0,000314 km² If my math doesn't fail me, if we partition the globe into discrete areas equivalent to that 10m radius, the odds of something landing on your area would be around 1 in 10^12.
        xnorswap 3y ago
        That's the chance of one specific person being hit. But I think you'd want to calculate the chance of any one person being "hit", which is roughly ten billion times higher than that, and uncomfortably likely (if people were actually 10m wide).
        ykonstant 3y ago
        >(if people were actually 10m wide). Apparently, we're working on that.
        tetris11 3y ago
        doesnt the orbit shadow vastly reduce surface area to a few thin overlapping strips?
        chipdart 3y ago
        Whose orbit?
        tetris11 3y ago
        the orbit/trajectory of the vessel the junk originally stemmed from
        ang_cire 3y ago
        Except that neither human nor satellite distribution is even across the global surface, and we actually tend to put our satellites above the human-populated areas so that they can service those humans. Including the nigh-unpopulated polar regions would massively skew the probabilities, for instance, especially since most satellites aren't in polar orbits either. It's still an infinitesimally small likelihood of being hit by one, of course.
      - scotty79 3y ago
        > The chances will probably increase the more space debris is handled in this way. The more stuff falls the more the models will be fine tuned to figure out how to re-enter stuff to completely burn it.
      - stevenjgarner 3y ago
        According to Clark R. Chapman (2007) [1], the "Odds of Dying in the U.S. from Selected Causes in a Human Lifetime" have Regional Asteroid/Comet Impact as 1 in 1,600,000, while the Odds of winning the PowerBall are 1 in 195,249,054. [1] https://www2.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts.htm https://www2.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts....
        pfdietz 3y ago
        I think the odds of dying from asteroid impact come from global collapse of agriculture, not the thing falling near you.
        itishappy 3y ago
        Most asteroids aren't the Earth ending kind. > Every day, Earth is bombarded with more than 100 tons of dust and sand-sized particles. https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/asteroid-fast-facts/ https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/asteroid-fast-fa...
        pfdietz 3y ago
        Yes, but an asteroid doesn't have to be earth-ending to ruin agriculture for a year. This is similar to the civilizational threat of volcanic supereruptions.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - fsckboy 3y ago
      > Good point. The chances are truly out of this world. all the chances that are out of this world are chances of not being hit. problem is, fully all the chances of being hit are on this world. "if it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all." - Cousin Joe
  - whycome 3y ago
    The odds are pretty terrestrial at that point. What's the smallest meteorite that would still be "penetrative" to a human body? Eg not falling space dust and also taking into account terminal velocities of smaller particles.
  - bagels 3y ago
    People have been hit by meteorites (which of course are more plentiful currently): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h...
    - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
      Fixed your link: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-hit-meteorite-real-trouble-began-later-180961238/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h... Also, FWIW, that article says only a single person has ever been recorded as being hit by a meteorite.
  - gchamonlive 3y ago
    The more junk the higher the probabilities of an accident. It doesn't have to reach two digits probability for it to start to be a problem. Densely populated areas + high likelihood of space debris could lead to unacceptable risks. Although I agree the actual danger is in the orbits and with deployed satellites.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      Most junk burns up in the atmosphere and so is harmless. Large or dense things are a big problem though. Satellites need to be designed with respect to how they break up on reentry.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      Densely populated areas probably reduce the risk for objects this size, as skyscrapers and subways are harder to go through vertically (when starting from space) than bungalows and cars.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - codedokode 3y ago
    There are 8 billions people on Earth though.
- JKCalhoun 3y ago
  "One of the items I ordered was Inconel-X, I received a 3-inch diameter cylindrical billet of the material and took it to the machine shop to have a 3-inch piece cut off to make a bearing. The shop foreman fired up a band saw and started to cut the billet. He only managed to make a small groove in the billet before the cutting action stopped. The Inconel-X had destroyed the saw teeth in just a few seconds. The foreman then tried a large power hacksaw. Those saw teeth also disappeared. I then foolishly suggested he try cutting a chunk off with a cutting torch. He fired up his cutting torch and within a couple minutes we had a billet of metal that looked like taffy." At the Edge of Space: the X-15 Flight Program
  - SAI_Peregrinus 3y ago
    Edge Precision on Youtube posted some videos showing making a valve body out of Inconel. It's clearly a PITA, he indexes the insert (changes the cutting edge to a new one) for every single cut. That adds a lot of time, and a decent amount of expense (carbide cutting tool inserts are cheap, but not free).
  - teepo 3y ago
    This is what black boxes should be constructed with.
    - tired_star_nrg 3y ago
      If you look at the Wikipedia for Inconel, it does actually mention that it is used as the engraving medium for black boxes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel
- chipdart 3y ago
  Saving you guys a quick googling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel Fascinating stuff.
  - reaperman 3y ago
    Inconel is used in chemical plants for its extreme resistance to harsh chemicals which quickly corrode even the highest-quality stainless steels. Inconel (and its cousin, Monel) is primarily made from nickel (>70% for Inconel-X, >63% for monel). Stainless steel also incorporates about 10% nickel and 20% chromium. Nickel is very expensive, so if you can get away with using something with less nickel, you'd really prefer to! There are "recent" advances in corrosion-resistant steel with smaller amounts of nickel, like "duplex steel" - duplex 2204 is just slightly less corrosion resistant than 316 stainless, but contains 4% nickel instead of 10%. You only use inconel when you absolutely cannot use anything less. It costs $2.50/lb compared to $0.80 for 316 and $0.40/lb for mild steel (standard run-of-the-mill steel). Not sure what 2204 costs these days, but will be somewhere between 316 and mild steel. No one wants to pay three times more for material if they don't have to, and also pay extra for specialized machinists who are confident working with a somewhat rare material. Materials scientists are working hard to create new, cheaper alloys with high corrosion resistance, and it drives a lot of really cool new science! Over the past 1-4 years I've seen some super interesting articles here on HN about new science being discovered around this, but I can't find them at the moment. That said, Inconel is only 4% denser than run-of-the-mill steel, so it's not going to make a difference which of these alloys fall from space onto your house or head.
    - MobiusHorizons 3y ago
      I think it will make difference which alloy falls from space, because much more of the inconel will be left after the fall. After all, they use it in spacecraft because of how well it handles high temperatures like reentry.
      - adrian_b 3y ago
        It handles better high temperatures than steel in the sense that it retains its strength at high temperatures, but which are still much lower than its melting point. This does not imply that Inconel is more resistant at vaporisation than steel. It is possible and even probable that it is less resistant (Inconel X has less chromium than many stainless steels and pure nickel has higher vapor pressure than pure iron, so it evaporates more quickly, but the behavior of alloys may be different from their components). Therefore it is not certain that more of the inconel will be left after the fall, it is quite likely that less will be left than from stainless steels with high chromium content.
- fx1994 3y ago
  two floors huh, and then I looked at pictures...plywood home, heh in Europe it would stay on attic, no chance to penetrate 15cm of concrete and steel.
  - zabzonk 3y ago
    you are living in an ex-ww2 bunker? here in the UK it would have gone right through the roof tiles and the plasterboard of the ceiling. same for the several dutch houses i've lived in.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  The earth surface area that is human is ~0.000000012% if you're wondering about the likelihood of being hit.
  - rmbyrro 3y ago
    It's even lower. Need to account for time. Not every second there's space debris reaching Earth surface.
fatjokes 3y ago
I knew the junk wasn't Chinese because this was only reported in space.com and not across all the mainstream media.
- dotnet00 3y ago
  Someone should've suggested to them that they were originally meant to be disposed in a controlled manner via a [Wrong] ~Russian vehicle that was delayed (they opted for uncontrolled reentry because the batteries were risky to keep around at the ISS, the controlled disposal vehicle was delayed and they had figured the batteries would be vaporized during reentry)~ Japanese vehicle, the crew for the disposal being delayed due to issues with a Russian vehicle, so they could instead blame the Russians in some manner. It'd be tricky to rephrase, but that hasn't stopped the media previously. Luckily it wasn't SpaceX, else every mainstream outlet's headline would be some form of "Elon Musk, owner of Starlink, drops space debris onto unsuspecting Florida man, nearly kills son"
  - dylan604 3y ago
    > unsuspecting Florida man why the need for the redundancy?
  - decremental 3y ago
    [dead]
  - pavon 3y ago
    Close. They were meant to be disposed via controlled entry on a Japanese craft, but the astronauts that were going to do the work were delayed due to issues with Soyuz, and they couldn't keep the Japanese craft around indefinitely due to other conflicts.
    - dotnet00 3y ago
      Ah that makes much more sense! I recalled that it was Soyuz that was delayed, but had been thinking that if they were disposing they'd probably do it via Progress and so, was a bit confused. I remembered that the reason for the uncontrolled disposal was the Soyuz delay and just went with that.
gtirloni 3y ago
*from ISS I don't think we're paying to send junk to the ISS yet.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- cpncrunch 3y ago
  Someone needs to fix the title. Not sure why you were downvoted. Current title is nonsensical.
briandw 3y ago
Inconel is tough stuff, melting at around 1400°C. However looks like re-entry temps can range from 2,900°C to 6,650°C. I guess the question is if it's hot enough for long enough to melt a large lump. Apparently not in this case.
- iJohnDoe 3y ago
  I wonder if NASA should have known this?
  - sp332 3y ago
    https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/03/a-hunk-of-junk-from-the-international-space-station-hurtles-back-to-earth/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/03/a-hunk-of-junk-from-th... NASA said "We do not expect any portion to have survived reentry," but the ESA said "some parts may reach the ground."
    - testplzignore 3y ago
      NASA must be using the GFS model for their predictions :)
- userbinator 3y ago
  As evidenced in the photo, it probably did partially melt and deform; but getting hit with a slug of molten metal is unlikely to be any better of a result. What's more important here is the boiling point.
  - andrewflnr 3y ago
    Not that much more important. Even if the metal is only liquefied, under the airflow it'll be prone to breaking into droplets with much lower terminal velocity, with much the same effect of reducing the mass that can actually hurt anyone. Unless I'm missing something big about the dynamics?
userbinator 3y ago
The cylindrical piece of space junk is made of a metallic alloy called Inconel, they added. It weighs 1.6 pounds (0.7 kg) and measures 4 inches (10 centimeters) high by 1.6 inches (4 cm) wide. That's about $3-4 worth according to this: https://www.scrapmetalbuyers.com/inconel https://www.scrapmetalbuyers.com/inconel
- ozim 3y ago
  I think based on rarity of the event it might be 1k if I could buy it off with documentation. Probably more from other people that are way more loaded than myself.
  - metalspoon 3y ago
    The cost of repairing the house, though.
  - HPsquared 3y ago
    Some collector, somewhere would absolutely love it.
  - plg94 3y ago
    But are you allowed to sell it? I'd think it still belongs to NASA. If an airplane flies over your house and drops an engine into your back yard, you can't just auction it off but have to hand it over to the authorities. Or if someone – accidentally or not – throws his Rolex watch into your window. He'll have to pay for the damage, but the object is still his property.
    - userbinator 3y ago
      NASA was disposing of it.
      - plg94 3y ago
        That doesn't matter, in most jurisdictions stealing trash is still stealing. If I'm disposing chemical waste in your backyard, do you automatically become the owner?
iJohnDoe 3y ago
Probably goes without saying. People should be allowed to be safe in their home without being possibly killed by space debris. If not, humanity is doing something wrong.
- anonylizard 3y ago
  Meteors exist, and there's nothing you can do to stop it, aside from clearly uneconomical shielding of every roof of every home. Its arrogance to think we are immune from unexpected and sudden death because we are humans. Also, cars and trucks occasionally do drive through homes, if the homes are next to large roads. Its rare, but far more common than space debris. Also, keep in mind these space debris, even if they hit homes, are unlikely to kill, a 10cm diameter ball (Aka 80cm^2 = 0.008m area) is unlikely to hit someone in a 100m^2 home.
  - foobar1962 3y ago
    > Also, cars and trucks occasionally do drive through homes, if the homes are next to large roads There is a Tesla in space. No homes are safe. Anywhere. In. The. Universe.
    - datascienced 3y ago
      That Tesla is in a sun orbit.
      - cseleborg 3y ago
        Should we send them a warning? Maybe they haven't spotted it yet? It's our junk after all...
      - pjerem 3y ago
        Every time I remember we have a Tesla orbiting in our solar system, I remember how stupid we are as a species.
        3y ago
IG_Semmelweiss 3y ago
I'm very curious how a FL man deduces that the object was ISS debris, vs random explosive, plane part, university pet project, etc and all other million things that could potentially caused the damage
- kube-system 3y ago
  I'm going to guess a couple of factors, just judging by the pictures on twitter: * it's small but went through a lot of stuff, so it must have been going pretty damn fast * it is metal but looks scorched on the outside. It looks like other parts you'd see at a museum that have gone through through reentry. * it's too uniform of a shape to be a meteorite
- rnewme 3y ago
  He lives on Florida.
  - nequo 3y ago
    Notably home to the Kennedy Space Center, although that’s on the other side of the peninsula.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- LVB 3y ago
  A deorbit of 3T of ISS cargo is significant, and there was a decent amount of press in fairly mainstream news sites leading up to the re-entry. It doesn't seem that unlikely that he, or someone he knows, had heard about it and connected the dots.
webwielder2 3y ago
And the homeowner just happens to be a NASA aficionado?
- crobertsbmw 3y ago
  I thought the same thing. I’m sure he’s the primary investigator of this case, but I still wonder how he came to suspect the ISS for a solid soda can ripping through two stories of his house.
  - neom 3y ago
    If something that looked as weird as this: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIvJrciWwAAKWXY?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIvJrciWwAAKWXY?format=jpg&name=... Came flying through my roof and two floors of my house, I would immediately think it came from space.
    - userbinator 3y ago
      It looks like a huge bullet.
      - dclowd9901 3y ago
        Yeah I’d think a misfired c-130 20 mil cannon round before I thought random space stuff hit my house.
        neom 3y ago
        I'm surprised, it looks nothing like a cannon round, also, as far as I'm aware the military has no kinetic bombardment it uses, I know a couple of years back they talked about the rods of gods system, but outside that I don't believe there are any rounds in the military that are just massive chunks of metal?
        msl 3y ago
        Why, do you live in a hospital? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike)
web3-is-a-scam 3y ago
[flagged]
- teeray 3y ago
  Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion
- ornornor 3y ago
  That’s rather soon.
  - web3-is-a-scam 3y ago
    I hope that when the world comes to an end, I can breathe a sigh of relief because there will be so much to look forward to.
gagabity 3y ago
Time to get paid!
jszymborski 3y ago
I've never before considered we might inadvertently be "Rods from God"'ing ourselves with the massive amounts of space junk we've tossed up there.
- MPSimmons 3y ago
  Responsible satellite fleet operators always plan for demiseability (that is, when a satellite re-enters, _all_ of it should burn up).
  - jszymborski 3y ago
    Relying on the responsibility of corporations for our safety, particularly when its not regulated, has a poor track record. What's more, this latest accident was from the ISS... you'd surely expect the government agencies involved to act responsibly. And yet.
ornornor 3y ago
I wonder if anyone is liable for the damages in this case? If I threw something up in the air and it landed on someone’s car, I’m pretty sure I’d have to pay for the repair. I suspect that a plane crashing into a building also makes the airline liable for the damage. Is it the same with the ISS given that it’s a joint project by so many space agencies and that it’s in space, i.e. outside of any territory?
- ben_w 3y ago
  If I understand right, whichever state launched it, due to the Outer Space Treaty: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty For example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954
- r0m4n0 3y ago
  I’m also curious which part of your auto or home insurance policy may call out space junk as covered or not. Maybe similar to a plane crashing into it.
  - fred_is_fred 3y ago
    I jokingly asked my insurance company this on Twitter a few years back when there was a Chinese satellite crashing and my house was in the possible path. They actually replied and the answer is yes - I would be covered. I was surprised actually that they replied at all and that I was covered!
    - BitwiseFool 3y ago
      Definitely worth the customer goodwill for something that is extremely unlikely to happen. Plus, for an insurance company the financial impact of replacing one house is completely routine. Yet, being able to advertise your situation would be golden.
- dotnet00 3y ago
  The previous article from when the incident had just caught NASA's attention mentioned that the homeowner intended to go after the government for costs, but explained that it could be complicated if the part turns out to be owned by JAXA, since then either the owner has to go after JAXA or NASA has to work something out with them.
trickleup 3y ago
I wonder if that will one day help sell the house to some trekkie sci-fi enthusiast.
- vasco 3y ago
  There's no fi in this, they can just enjoy science.
wly_cdgr 3y ago
That's cool and all, but I'm more interested in hearing whether they've compensated the guy whose house they destroyed
- wly_cdgr 3y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, especially with the ISS being an international station. Good luck getting one national agency to accept enough of the responsibility! And then the red tape even if they clear that hurdle...
shultays 3y ago
Can't they aim a bit better while jettisoning stuff or is re-entry that chaotic? It looks like they are relying on stuff burning off as they go through atmosphere but I don't see how that can happen for a roundish chunk of metal. But I am no nasa engineer so who knows The earth surface is 70% water, surely you can aim for an ocean
- hollerith 3y ago
  "The pallet and the batteries were expected to burn up completely in Earth's atmosphere"
  - shultays 3y ago
    My question was, is it not better to just "aim" for an ocean.
    - joelthelion 3y ago
      It might not be easy to aim anywhere if the object is expected to do multiple rotations around the earth before ending up anywhere. It would be good to have confirmation from a specialist.
      - hollerith 3y ago
        I agree: specifically, I think that controlling the point of impact is possible but requires equipment (rocket motors, a heat shield, navigation computers) which of courses costs money to get into orbit and can be used only once.
      - evilduck 3y ago
        It was from the ISS three years ago. It made around seventeen thousand orbits before reentry.
    - dghughes 3y ago
      Your question is vague. You're not dropping something off a cliff it's moving and 400km up and 25,000km/h. Any object coming from the ISS will be going 25,000 km/h. I don't think "aim" is the word since the Earth is moving rapidly beneath the object. There's no stationary point to aim at. Plus once the object of whatever shape in the atmosphere drag which causing friction to burn it up is not controllable. It would break apart and each object with different mass now has its own path and velocity. I'm amazed any of it works as well as if does now.
dade_ 3y ago
Guess it wasn't a toilet seat. Life imitates art. Dead Like Me, love that show: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0348913/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0348913/
bryanrasmussen 3y ago
a space station in trouble started shedding parts as it orbited over Seahaven just a few moments ago!
robertlagrant 3y ago
I was hoping it was junk from a SpaceX satellite so I could moan about how private companies are careless. I'll keep quiet though, since it's NASA.
- netbioserror 3y ago
  Uhhhhhhhhhhh I hope your tongue is in your cheek here.
  - peddling-brink 3y ago
    You can tell it’s a joke because they stated their intent to keep quiet, but didn’t. The humor comes from the surprising difference between what was stated, and reality.
    - macksd 3y ago
      Sometimes there are a lot of differences between what people say and reality, but the person isn't trying to be humorous.
      - gtirloni 3y ago
        The limits of text communication, right? A wink or other gesture or knowledge of this person's previous jokes would let a human to easily identify it as a joke or not. Netiquette would be to add "/s" or an emoji to add more information to the channel.
      - Atheros 3y ago
        It was obvious sardonicism. Sardonicism is often humorous. The point was to mock those who criticize private companies but not government institutions. An underlying point was that they should be treated equally but aren't.
    - carimura 3y ago
      in a way, explaining humor is funny in and of itself. but ya. low fidelity communication and subtly are not friends especially to a technical audience.
doctorhandshake 3y ago
Typo in title: space junk ‘from’ ISS
flerchin 3y ago
I suppose he files an insurance claim, and the insurance company can go after NASA.
yazan94 3y ago
Sooo... was this damage covered by insurance?
js2 3y ago
Previous discussion a month ago when the reentry was announced: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39636991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39636991 Also some perhaps important context: > The uncontrolled disposal of the pallet, however, was not part of the original plan. It was made necessary by a disrupted spacewalking schedule following the failed launch of a Soyuz rocket in 2018, which forced NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin to make an emergency landing in the Kazakh steppe. This event led to a backlog in the disposal of such equipment. Normally, old batteries would be placed inside an HTV (H-II Transfer Vehicle) and jettisoned from the ISS to burn up on re-entry. > However, in late 2018, an HTV departed without this battery pallet due to the rescheduled spacewalks. As the battery replacement mission continued, and with no more HTVs of the old design expected to arrive (they are being replaced by the HTV-X cargo spacecraft), the decision was made to jettison the pallet independently. https://gizmodo.com/massive-iss-cargo-pallet-reentry-earth-march-2024-1851317508 https://gizmodo.com/massive-iss-cargo-pallet-reentry-earth-m...

177 points by anigbrowl 3y ago

> The cylindrical piece of space junk is made of a metallic alloy called Inconel, they added. It weighs 1.6 pounds (0.7 kg) and measures 4 inches (10 centimeters) high by 1.6 inches (4 cm) wide. I’m no rocket scientist, but I’m pretty sure that would kill you if you got hit. Though we’ll have to run a couple more tests to be sure. Home owner says it tore through two floors: https://twitter.com/Alejandro0tero/status/1768729031493427225 https://twitter.com/Alejandro0tero/status/176872903149342722...

bhhaskin 3y ago
You would have to have some pretty bad luck to be hit by space junk like that. Not saying it's a good thing or anything, just that the odds are pretty astronomical.
- the_real_cher 3y ago
  Good point. The chances are truly out of this world.
  - iJohnDoe 3y ago
    Yet possible as proven here. Hitting a home is bad enough. The chances will probably increase the more space debris is handled in this way. Also, tell the family they just have “bad luck”.
    - kylecazar 3y ago
      They're making space puns
    - dmix 3y ago
      Homes are much larger than people and people are always in their homes. And even if you were home it’s not like it would 100% penetrate a floor you’re on or wall or whatever.
      - nier 3y ago
        The linked Twitter post above contains at least one picture of a fully penetrated floor.
        ornornor 3y ago
        US houses are notoriously not as well built as in other places in the world. Where I live at the moment for instance is concrete all around, including the roof. I would be surprised if this falling on it would do anything at all and surely wouldn’t penetrate.
        Vecr 3y ago
        Are you sure about that? It's not literally Rods From the Gods but it's a high density high heat resistance metal chunk, going very fast.
        ornornor 3y ago
        I’m not certain, no. But I’d be curious to see. In my building, each floor is around 20–30 cm thick concrete.
        tutfbhuf 3y ago
        If a barrier can stop a .50 cal BMG, then it should be sufficient to stop space debris. 20-30 cm of concrete should be enough.
        ben_w 3y ago
        I have no idea how fast it was going when it hit, but as it is more than 10x the mass of a 50 cal, I wouldn't rely on the assumption that protection from the latter is also protection from the former.
    - chipdart 3y ago
      > Also, tell the family they just have “bad luck”. It's not wrong, though. The Earth's surface is slightly over 500 million km². Let's say that something landing within a 10m radius of you represents a hit. That radius is about 314 m², or 0,000314 km² If my math doesn't fail me, if we partition the globe into discrete areas equivalent to that 10m radius, the odds of something landing on your area would be around 1 in 10^12.
      - xnorswap 3y ago
        That's the chance of one specific person being hit. But I think you'd want to calculate the chance of any one person being "hit", which is roughly ten billion times higher than that, and uncomfortably likely (if people were actually 10m wide).
        ykonstant 3y ago
        >(if people were actually 10m wide). Apparently, we're working on that.
      - tetris11 3y ago
        doesnt the orbit shadow vastly reduce surface area to a few thin overlapping strips?
        chipdart 3y ago
        Whose orbit?
        tetris11 3y ago
        the orbit/trajectory of the vessel the junk originally stemmed from
      - ang_cire 3y ago
        Except that neither human nor satellite distribution is even across the global surface, and we actually tend to put our satellites above the human-populated areas so that they can service those humans. Including the nigh-unpopulated polar regions would massively skew the probabilities, for instance, especially since most satellites aren't in polar orbits either. It's still an infinitesimally small likelihood of being hit by one, of course.
    - scotty79 3y ago
      > The chances will probably increase the more space debris is handled in this way. The more stuff falls the more the models will be fine tuned to figure out how to re-enter stuff to completely burn it.
    - stevenjgarner 3y ago
      According to Clark R. Chapman (2007) [1], the "Odds of Dying in the U.S. from Selected Causes in a Human Lifetime" have Regional Asteroid/Comet Impact as 1 in 1,600,000, while the Odds of winning the PowerBall are 1 in 195,249,054. [1] https://www2.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts.htm https://www2.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts....
      - pfdietz 3y ago
        I think the odds of dying from asteroid impact come from global collapse of agriculture, not the thing falling near you.
        itishappy 3y ago
        Most asteroids aren't the Earth ending kind. > Every day, Earth is bombarded with more than 100 tons of dust and sand-sized particles. https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/asteroid-fast-facts/ https://www.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/asteroid-fast-fa...
        pfdietz 3y ago
        Yes, but an asteroid doesn't have to be earth-ending to ruin agriculture for a year. This is similar to the civilizational threat of volcanic supereruptions.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - fsckboy 3y ago
    > Good point. The chances are truly out of this world. all the chances that are out of this world are chances of not being hit. problem is, fully all the chances of being hit are on this world. "if it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all." - Cousin Joe
- whycome 3y ago
  The odds are pretty terrestrial at that point. What's the smallest meteorite that would still be "penetrative" to a human body? Eg not falling space dust and also taking into account terminal velocities of smaller particles.
- bagels 3y ago
  People have been hit by meteorites (which of course are more plentiful currently): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h...
  - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
    Fixed your link: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-hit-meteorite-real-trouble-began-later-180961238/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/only-person-ever-h... Also, FWIW, that article says only a single person has ever been recorded as being hit by a meteorite.
- gchamonlive 3y ago
  The more junk the higher the probabilities of an accident. It doesn't have to reach two digits probability for it to start to be a problem. Densely populated areas + high likelihood of space debris could lead to unacceptable risks. Although I agree the actual danger is in the orbits and with deployed satellites.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    Most junk burns up in the atmosphere and so is harmless. Large or dense things are a big problem though. Satellites need to be designed with respect to how they break up on reentry.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Densely populated areas probably reduce the risk for objects this size, as skyscrapers and subways are harder to go through vertically (when starting from space) than bungalows and cars.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- codedokode 3y ago
  There are 8 billions people on Earth though.
JKCalhoun 3y ago
"One of the items I ordered was Inconel-X, I received a 3-inch diameter cylindrical billet of the material and took it to the machine shop to have a 3-inch piece cut off to make a bearing. The shop foreman fired up a band saw and started to cut the billet. He only managed to make a small groove in the billet before the cutting action stopped. The Inconel-X had destroyed the saw teeth in just a few seconds. The foreman then tried a large power hacksaw. Those saw teeth also disappeared. I then foolishly suggested he try cutting a chunk off with a cutting torch. He fired up his cutting torch and within a couple minutes we had a billet of metal that looked like taffy." At the Edge of Space: the X-15 Flight Program
- SAI_Peregrinus 3y ago
  Edge Precision on Youtube posted some videos showing making a valve body out of Inconel. It's clearly a PITA, he indexes the insert (changes the cutting edge to a new one) for every single cut. That adds a lot of time, and a decent amount of expense (carbide cutting tool inserts are cheap, but not free).
- teepo 3y ago
  This is what black boxes should be constructed with.
  - tired_star_nrg 3y ago
    If you look at the Wikipedia for Inconel, it does actually mention that it is used as the engraving medium for black boxes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel
chipdart 3y ago
Saving you guys a quick googling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inconel Fascinating stuff.
- reaperman 3y ago
  Inconel is used in chemical plants for its extreme resistance to harsh chemicals which quickly corrode even the highest-quality stainless steels. Inconel (and its cousin, Monel) is primarily made from nickel (>70% for Inconel-X, >63% for monel). Stainless steel also incorporates about 10% nickel and 20% chromium. Nickel is very expensive, so if you can get away with using something with less nickel, you'd really prefer to! There are "recent" advances in corrosion-resistant steel with smaller amounts of nickel, like "duplex steel" - duplex 2204 is just slightly less corrosion resistant than 316 stainless, but contains 4% nickel instead of 10%. You only use inconel when you absolutely cannot use anything less. It costs $2.50/lb compared to $0.80 for 316 and $0.40/lb for mild steel (standard run-of-the-mill steel). Not sure what 2204 costs these days, but will be somewhere between 316 and mild steel. No one wants to pay three times more for material if they don't have to, and also pay extra for specialized machinists who are confident working with a somewhat rare material. Materials scientists are working hard to create new, cheaper alloys with high corrosion resistance, and it drives a lot of really cool new science! Over the past 1-4 years I've seen some super interesting articles here on HN about new science being discovered around this, but I can't find them at the moment. That said, Inconel is only 4% denser than run-of-the-mill steel, so it's not going to make a difference which of these alloys fall from space onto your house or head.
  - MobiusHorizons 3y ago
    I think it will make difference which alloy falls from space, because much more of the inconel will be left after the fall. After all, they use it in spacecraft because of how well it handles high temperatures like reentry.
    - adrian_b 3y ago
      It handles better high temperatures than steel in the sense that it retains its strength at high temperatures, but which are still much lower than its melting point. This does not imply that Inconel is more resistant at vaporisation than steel. It is possible and even probable that it is less resistant (Inconel X has less chromium than many stainless steels and pure nickel has higher vapor pressure than pure iron, so it evaporates more quickly, but the behavior of alloys may be different from their components). Therefore it is not certain that more of the inconel will be left after the fall, it is quite likely that less will be left than from stainless steels with high chromium content.
fx1994 3y ago
two floors huh, and then I looked at pictures...plywood home, heh in Europe it would stay on attic, no chance to penetrate 15cm of concrete and steel.
- zabzonk 3y ago
  you are living in an ex-ww2 bunker? here in the UK it would have gone right through the roof tiles and the plasterboard of the ceiling. same for the several dutch houses i've lived in.
mensetmanusman 3y ago
The earth surface area that is human is ~0.000000012% if you're wondering about the likelihood of being hit.
- rmbyrro 3y ago
  It's even lower. Need to account for time. Not every second there's space debris reaching Earth surface.

fatjokes 3y ago

I knew the junk wasn't Chinese because this was only reported in space.com and not across all the mainstream media.

dotnet00 3y ago
Someone should've suggested to them that they were originally meant to be disposed in a controlled manner via a [Wrong] ~Russian vehicle that was delayed (they opted for uncontrolled reentry because the batteries were risky to keep around at the ISS, the controlled disposal vehicle was delayed and they had figured the batteries would be vaporized during reentry)~ Japanese vehicle, the crew for the disposal being delayed due to issues with a Russian vehicle, so they could instead blame the Russians in some manner. It'd be tricky to rephrase, but that hasn't stopped the media previously. Luckily it wasn't SpaceX, else every mainstream outlet's headline would be some form of "Elon Musk, owner of Starlink, drops space debris onto unsuspecting Florida man, nearly kills son"
- dylan604 3y ago
  > unsuspecting Florida man why the need for the redundancy?
- decremental 3y ago
  [dead]
- pavon 3y ago
  Close. They were meant to be disposed via controlled entry on a Japanese craft, but the astronauts that were going to do the work were delayed due to issues with Soyuz, and they couldn't keep the Japanese craft around indefinitely due to other conflicts.
  - dotnet00 3y ago
    Ah that makes much more sense! I recalled that it was Soyuz that was delayed, but had been thinking that if they were disposing they'd probably do it via Progress and so, was a bit confused. I remembered that the reason for the uncontrolled disposal was the Soyuz delay and just went with that.

gtirloni 3y ago

*from ISS I don't think we're paying to send junk to the ISS yet.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
cpncrunch 3y ago
Someone needs to fix the title. Not sure why you were downvoted. Current title is nonsensical.

briandw 3y ago

Inconel is tough stuff, melting at around 1400°C. However looks like re-entry temps can range from 2,900°C to 6,650°C. I guess the question is if it's hot enough for long enough to melt a large lump. Apparently not in this case.

iJohnDoe 3y ago
I wonder if NASA should have known this?
- sp332 3y ago
  https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/03/a-hunk-of-junk-from-the-international-space-station-hurtles-back-to-earth/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/03/a-hunk-of-junk-from-th... NASA said "We do not expect any portion to have survived reentry," but the ESA said "some parts may reach the ground."
  - testplzignore 3y ago
    NASA must be using the GFS model for their predictions :)
userbinator 3y ago
As evidenced in the photo, it probably did partially melt and deform; but getting hit with a slug of molten metal is unlikely to be any better of a result. What's more important here is the boiling point.
- andrewflnr 3y ago
  Not that much more important. Even if the metal is only liquefied, under the airflow it'll be prone to breaking into droplets with much lower terminal velocity, with much the same effect of reducing the mass that can actually hurt anyone. Unless I'm missing something big about the dynamics?

userbinator 3y ago

The cylindrical piece of space junk is made of a metallic alloy called Inconel, they added. It weighs 1.6 pounds (0.7 kg) and measures 4 inches (10 centimeters) high by 1.6 inches (4 cm) wide. That's about $3-4 worth according to this: https://www.scrapmetalbuyers.com/inconel https://www.scrapmetalbuyers.com/inconel

ozim 3y ago
I think based on rarity of the event it might be 1k if I could buy it off with documentation. Probably more from other people that are way more loaded than myself.
- metalspoon 3y ago
  The cost of repairing the house, though.
- HPsquared 3y ago
  Some collector, somewhere would absolutely love it.
- plg94 3y ago
  But are you allowed to sell it? I'd think it still belongs to NASA. If an airplane flies over your house and drops an engine into your back yard, you can't just auction it off but have to hand it over to the authorities. Or if someone – accidentally or not – throws his Rolex watch into your window. He'll have to pay for the damage, but the object is still his property.
  - userbinator 3y ago
    NASA was disposing of it.
    - plg94 3y ago
      That doesn't matter, in most jurisdictions stealing trash is still stealing. If I'm disposing chemical waste in your backyard, do you automatically become the owner?

iJohnDoe 3y ago

Probably goes without saying. People should be allowed to be safe in their home without being possibly killed by space debris. If not, humanity is doing something wrong.

anonylizard 3y ago
Meteors exist, and there's nothing you can do to stop it, aside from clearly uneconomical shielding of every roof of every home. Its arrogance to think we are immune from unexpected and sudden death because we are humans. Also, cars and trucks occasionally do drive through homes, if the homes are next to large roads. Its rare, but far more common than space debris. Also, keep in mind these space debris, even if they hit homes, are unlikely to kill, a 10cm diameter ball (Aka 80cm^2 = 0.008m area) is unlikely to hit someone in a 100m^2 home.
- foobar1962 3y ago
  > Also, cars and trucks occasionally do drive through homes, if the homes are next to large roads There is a Tesla in space. No homes are safe. Anywhere. In. The. Universe.
  - datascienced 3y ago
    That Tesla is in a sun orbit.
    - cseleborg 3y ago
      Should we send them a warning? Maybe they haven't spotted it yet? It's our junk after all...
    - pjerem 3y ago
      Every time I remember we have a Tesla orbiting in our solar system, I remember how stupid we are as a species.
      - 3y ago

IG_Semmelweiss 3y ago

I'm very curious how a FL man deduces that the object was ISS debris, vs random explosive, plane part, university pet project, etc and all other million things that could potentially caused the damage

kube-system 3y ago
I'm going to guess a couple of factors, just judging by the pictures on twitter: * it's small but went through a lot of stuff, so it must have been going pretty damn fast * it is metal but looks scorched on the outside. It looks like other parts you'd see at a museum that have gone through through reentry. * it's too uniform of a shape to be a meteorite
rnewme 3y ago
He lives on Florida.
- nequo 3y ago
  Notably home to the Kennedy Space Center, although that’s on the other side of the peninsula.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
LVB 3y ago
A deorbit of 3T of ISS cargo is significant, and there was a decent amount of press in fairly mainstream news sites leading up to the re-entry. It doesn't seem that unlikely that he, or someone he knows, had heard about it and connected the dots.

webwielder2 3y ago

And the homeowner just happens to be a NASA aficionado?

crobertsbmw 3y ago
I thought the same thing. I’m sure he’s the primary investigator of this case, but I still wonder how he came to suspect the ISS for a solid soda can ripping through two stories of his house.
- neom 3y ago
  If something that looked as weird as this: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIvJrciWwAAKWXY?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIvJrciWwAAKWXY?format=jpg&name=... Came flying through my roof and two floors of my house, I would immediately think it came from space.
  - userbinator 3y ago
    It looks like a huge bullet.
    - dclowd9901 3y ago
      Yeah I’d think a misfired c-130 20 mil cannon round before I thought random space stuff hit my house.
      - neom 3y ago
        I'm surprised, it looks nothing like a cannon round, also, as far as I'm aware the military has no kinetic bombardment it uses, I know a couple of years back they talked about the rods of gods system, but outside that I don't believe there are any rounds in the military that are just massive chunks of metal?
      - msl 3y ago
        Why, do you live in a hospital? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_hospital_airstrike)

web3-is-a-scam 3y ago

[flagged]

teeray 3y ago
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion
ornornor 3y ago
That’s rather soon.
- web3-is-a-scam 3y ago
  I hope that when the world comes to an end, I can breathe a sigh of relief because there will be so much to look forward to.

gagabity 3y ago

Time to get paid!

jszymborski 3y ago

I've never before considered we might inadvertently be "Rods from God"'ing ourselves with the massive amounts of space junk we've tossed up there.

MPSimmons 3y ago
Responsible satellite fleet operators always plan for demiseability (that is, when a satellite re-enters, _all_ of it should burn up).
- jszymborski 3y ago
  Relying on the responsibility of corporations for our safety, particularly when its not regulated, has a poor track record. What's more, this latest accident was from the ISS... you'd surely expect the government agencies involved to act responsibly. And yet.

ornornor 3y ago

I wonder if anyone is liable for the damages in this case? If I threw something up in the air and it landed on someone’s car, I’m pretty sure I’d have to pay for the repair. I suspect that a plane crashing into a building also makes the airline liable for the damage. Is it the same with the ISS given that it’s a joint project by so many space agencies and that it’s in space, i.e. outside of any territory?

ben_w 3y ago
If I understand right, whichever state launched it, due to the Outer Space Treaty: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty For example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954
r0m4n0 3y ago
I’m also curious which part of your auto or home insurance policy may call out space junk as covered or not. Maybe similar to a plane crashing into it.
- fred_is_fred 3y ago
  I jokingly asked my insurance company this on Twitter a few years back when there was a Chinese satellite crashing and my house was in the possible path. They actually replied and the answer is yes - I would be covered. I was surprised actually that they replied at all and that I was covered!
  - BitwiseFool 3y ago
    Definitely worth the customer goodwill for something that is extremely unlikely to happen. Plus, for an insurance company the financial impact of replacing one house is completely routine. Yet, being able to advertise your situation would be golden.
dotnet00 3y ago
The previous article from when the incident had just caught NASA's attention mentioned that the homeowner intended to go after the government for costs, but explained that it could be complicated if the part turns out to be owned by JAXA, since then either the owner has to go after JAXA or NASA has to work something out with them.

trickleup 3y ago

I wonder if that will one day help sell the house to some trekkie sci-fi enthusiast.

vasco 3y ago
There's no fi in this, they can just enjoy science.

wly_cdgr 3y ago

That's cool and all, but I'm more interested in hearing whether they've compensated the guy whose house they destroyed

wly_cdgr 3y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, especially with the ISS being an international station. Good luck getting one national agency to accept enough of the responsibility! And then the red tape even if they clear that hurdle...

shultays 3y ago

Can't they aim a bit better while jettisoning stuff or is re-entry that chaotic? It looks like they are relying on stuff burning off as they go through atmosphere but I don't see how that can happen for a roundish chunk of metal. But I am no nasa engineer so who knows The earth surface is 70% water, surely you can aim for an ocean

hollerith 3y ago
"The pallet and the batteries were expected to burn up completely in Earth's atmosphere"
- shultays 3y ago
  My question was, is it not better to just "aim" for an ocean.
  - joelthelion 3y ago
    It might not be easy to aim anywhere if the object is expected to do multiple rotations around the earth before ending up anywhere. It would be good to have confirmation from a specialist.
    - hollerith 3y ago
      I agree: specifically, I think that controlling the point of impact is possible but requires equipment (rocket motors, a heat shield, navigation computers) which of courses costs money to get into orbit and can be used only once.
    - evilduck 3y ago
      It was from the ISS three years ago. It made around seventeen thousand orbits before reentry.
  - dghughes 3y ago
    Your question is vague. You're not dropping something off a cliff it's moving and 400km up and 25,000km/h. Any object coming from the ISS will be going 25,000 km/h. I don't think "aim" is the word since the Earth is moving rapidly beneath the object. There's no stationary point to aim at. Plus once the object of whatever shape in the atmosphere drag which causing friction to burn it up is not controllable. It would break apart and each object with different mass now has its own path and velocity. I'm amazed any of it works as well as if does now.

dade_ 3y ago

Guess it wasn't a toilet seat. Life imitates art. Dead Like Me, love that show: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0348913/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0348913/

bryanrasmussen 3y ago

a space station in trouble started shedding parts as it orbited over Seahaven just a few moments ago!

robertlagrant 3y ago

I was hoping it was junk from a SpaceX satellite so I could moan about how private companies are careless. I'll keep quiet though, since it's NASA.

netbioserror 3y ago
Uhhhhhhhhhhh I hope your tongue is in your cheek here.
- peddling-brink 3y ago
  You can tell it’s a joke because they stated their intent to keep quiet, but didn’t. The humor comes from the surprising difference between what was stated, and reality.
  - macksd 3y ago
    Sometimes there are a lot of differences between what people say and reality, but the person isn't trying to be humorous.
    - gtirloni 3y ago
      The limits of text communication, right? A wink or other gesture or knowledge of this person's previous jokes would let a human to easily identify it as a joke or not. Netiquette would be to add "/s" or an emoji to add more information to the channel.
    - Atheros 3y ago
      It was obvious sardonicism. Sardonicism is often humorous. The point was to mock those who criticize private companies but not government institutions. An underlying point was that they should be treated equally but aren't.
  - carimura 3y ago
    in a way, explaining humor is funny in and of itself. but ya. low fidelity communication and subtly are not friends especially to a technical audience.

doctorhandshake 3y ago

Typo in title: space junk ‘from’ ISS

flerchin 3y ago

I suppose he files an insurance claim, and the insurance company can go after NASA.

yazan94 3y ago

Sooo... was this damage covered by insurance?

js2 3y ago

Previous discussion a month ago when the reentry was announced: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39636991 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39636991 Also some perhaps important context: > The uncontrolled disposal of the pallet, however, was not part of the original plan. It was made necessary by a disrupted spacewalking schedule following the failed launch of a Soyuz rocket in 2018, which forced NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin to make an emergency landing in the Kazakh steppe. This event led to a backlog in the disposal of such equipment. Normally, old batteries would be placed inside an HTV (H-II Transfer Vehicle) and jettisoned from the ISS to burn up on re-entry. > However, in late 2018, an HTV departed without this battery pallet due to the rescheduled spacewalks. As the battery replacement mission continued, and with no more HTVs of the old design expected to arrive (they are being replaced by the HTV-X cargo spacecraft), the decision was made to jettison the pallet independently. https://gizmodo.com/massive-iss-cargo-pallet-reentry-earth-march-2024-1851317508 https://gizmodo.com/massive-iss-cargo-pallet-reentry-earth-m...