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Happy to see progress here, but days like today seem like easy targets for meeting demand with renewables: Most of the state seems to be between 55-75°F (low de

Happy to see progress here, but days like today seem like easy targets for meeting demand with renewables: Most of the state seems to be between 55-75°F (low demand), cloud cover seems light, and the days are reasonably long (high supply). Again, progress is nice. But I'm still skeptical how well the state's grid can handle another major statewide heatwave, to say nothing about the transition to EVs.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
That's the beauty of it: you just keep adding solar, wind, and batteries. And with battery cell manufacturing scaling up [1] [2] [3] [4], I would expect utility scale storage deployments to skyrocket (pushing out fossil generation). This was always the future, it simply arrived earlier than expected. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D ("China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants") [2] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/12/catl-unveils-first-mass-producible-battery-storage-with-zero-degradation/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/12/catl-unveils-first-ma... ("CATL unveils first mass-producible battery storage with zero degradation") [3] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/lithium-ion-battery-capacity-to-grow-steadily-to-2030 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("Lithium-ion battery capacity to grow steadily to 2030") [4] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202 ("U.S. battery storage capacity expected to nearly double in 2024")
- ojosilva 2y ago
  How about the development of large storage infrastructure? Any major efforts or breakthroughs there? That would be the "killer app" for these stellar renewable supply milestones.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Not to my knowledge. You overbuild renewables and curtail in the low demand seasons. Fusion at a distance throwing off that power constantly. https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-solar-wind https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-... https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy/atlas-of-100-percent-renewable-energy https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at-up-to-4-times-peak-load-yields-a-least-cost-all-renewables-grid/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at...
  - ianburrell 2y ago
    Why do we need to currently develop large scale storage? That is only needed for full renewable grid and we are long way from that. The current answer to storage are natural gas power plants which emit CO2. We should be comparing the feasibility of storage to those. It is much better to use today's money to build more renewables instead of wasting it on expensive storage. Some storage makes sense to reduce the evening peak. But we will have a better idea of what storage we need, and what storage is cheapest to build in a decade when there are a lot more renewables.
- rokkitmensch 2y ago
  How on earth are batteries earth friendly?
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    They are built, sit on concrete pads in containers for at least 15-20 years, and then are recycled when reaching end of life. Far more friendly than burning coal or fossil gas, or nuclear waste no one wants to store. There is no perfect solution, only least worst options.
  - happymellon 2y ago
    It depends on what you consider to be a battery. As an energy storage solution, pumping water up into a tower and then letting it drop during high demand is simple. Its earth friendly because then at peaks it can take some of the load off the generation, which could be less environmentally friendly. Renewables are better than fossil fuels, and not spending the energy to build solar panels is better than the process to create solar panels. As long as it's not a toxic battery, then it should be a pretty good interim.
zer00eyz 2y ago
>> But I'm still skeptical how well the state's grid can handle another major statewide heatwave, This is a PGE problem. They have jacked up our rates to fix their lack of maintenance and planning... I reman suspect that they will do anything of benefit for the state or their customers. Meanwhile we have a mandate from the state to make stoves, heaters and cars electric real soon! As a Bay Area resident im going to say this out loud: between the states mandates and PGE's prices it looks a hell of a lot like we just redlined a big chunk of the bay.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

That's the beauty of it: you just keep adding solar, wind, and batteries. And with battery cell manufacturing scaling up [1] [2] [3] [4], I would expect utility scale storage deployments to skyrocket (pushing out fossil generation). This was always the future, it simply arrived earlier than expected. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-12/china-... | https://archive.today/8Dy4D https://archive.today/8Dy4D ("China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants") [2] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/12/catl-unveils-first-mass-producible-battery-storage-with-zero-degradation/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/12/catl-unveils-first-ma... ("CATL unveils first mass-producible battery storage with zero degradation") [3] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/lithium-ion-battery-capacity-to-grow-steadily-to-2030 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... ("Lithium-ion battery capacity to grow steadily to 2030") [4] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61202 ("U.S. battery storage capacity expected to nearly double in 2024")

ojosilva 2y ago
How about the development of large storage infrastructure? Any major efforts or breakthroughs there? That would be the "killer app" for these stellar renewable supply milestones.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Not to my knowledge. You overbuild renewables and curtail in the low demand seasons. Fusion at a distance throwing off that power constantly. https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-solar-wind https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-... https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy/atlas-of-100-percent-renewable-energy https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at-up-to-4-times-peak-load-yields-a-least-cost-all-renewables-grid/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at...
- ianburrell 2y ago
  Why do we need to currently develop large scale storage? That is only needed for full renewable grid and we are long way from that. The current answer to storage are natural gas power plants which emit CO2. We should be comparing the feasibility of storage to those. It is much better to use today's money to build more renewables instead of wasting it on expensive storage. Some storage makes sense to reduce the evening peak. But we will have a better idea of what storage we need, and what storage is cheapest to build in a decade when there are a lot more renewables.
rokkitmensch 2y ago
How on earth are batteries earth friendly?
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  They are built, sit on concrete pads in containers for at least 15-20 years, and then are recycled when reaching end of life. Far more friendly than burning coal or fossil gas, or nuclear waste no one wants to store. There is no perfect solution, only least worst options.
- happymellon 2y ago
  It depends on what you consider to be a battery. As an energy storage solution, pumping water up into a tower and then letting it drop during high demand is simple. Its earth friendly because then at peaks it can take some of the load off the generation, which could be less environmentally friendly. Renewables are better than fossil fuels, and not spending the energy to build solar panels is better than the process to create solar panels. As long as it's not a toxic battery, then it should be a pretty good interim.

zer00eyz 2y ago

>> But I'm still skeptical how well the state's grid can handle another major statewide heatwave, This is a PGE problem. They have jacked up our rates to fix their lack of maintenance and planning... I reman suspect that they will do anything of benefit for the state or their customers. Meanwhile we have a mandate from the state to make stoves, heaters and cars electric real soon! As a Bay Area resident im going to say this out loud: between the states mandates and PGE's prices it looks a hell of a lot like we just redlined a big chunk of the bay.