4 ms·

Working hard to prevent an Iran-Israel war, which the latter will easily win anyway.

by blackhawkC17 3y ago

empath-nirvana 3y ago
It's pretty much always better to not get into a war than to win a war.
- rasz 3y ago
  There is already a war or two, just undeclared. Is it really better to let the aggressor keep attacking and killing while you sit and watch it happen thus sending signal to all others how weak you are?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - noah_buddy 3y ago
    > the aggressor Which one are we talking about? I think this sort of discussion is best left off HN.
  - rightbyte 3y ago
    It is impossible to tell if you are referring to Iran or Israel or maybe both.
    - rasz 3y ago
      No reaction to Crimea send clear message to Russia. US let Ukraine happen. No reaction to Iranian drones in Ukraine emboldened Iran resulting in 7the and now 14th. Again no response. Who will try next, NKorea or China?
    - rasz 3y ago
      I was of course referring to US. As Ben Hodges put it yesterday: "We've got to muster the political will, industrial capacity, economic leverage, and military capability to defeat Russia first in order to isolate/deter Iran and deter China from making a terrible miscalculation."
- JohnDeHope 3y ago
  That's a succinct way to put it. Does anybody have any suggestions for following up on this line of thinking? I wonder what other, maybe technical scenarios, where this might also be true? It's better for an error message to explain what the end user likely needs to know, rather than you heroically debugging it for them.
  - int_19h 3y ago
    Here's a good read that is already very relevant wrt Gaza, and likely will be even more relevant wrt Iran. https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower-101/ https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower...
thsksbd 3y ago
If the win is easy, why is the Pentagon worried and why is Bibi trying to sucker us into this conflict?
- fdsjgfklsfd 3y ago
  Even an easy win is expensive.
  - thsksbd 3y ago
    Israel has admited it blew $1 billion in AD on Friday. AD we seemingly cant build anymore (see Ukr. war). What fraction of its arsenal do you think Iran used up on Friday? That's the real question. If half, Israel can easily smack Iran with impunity. What if it was only 5%? Shooting half their stockpile would be pretty stupid, after all.
gambiting 3y ago
>>which the latter will easily win anyway There would be literally nothing easy about fighting Iran, unless your idea of fighting is just to glass the entire country. Because any kind of conventional warfare with Iran would make Iraq and Afganistan look like kindergarden in comparison. And that's not to say that Iran is some kind of superpower - it's absolutely not. Just that the terrain is extremely difficult, the army is actually decently equipped and trained, and it's a huge and very populous country.
- vizzier 3y ago
  Yeah, Israel can't even control a 25km strip of land on its southern coast. War is never easy.
- all2 3y ago
  The understanding I have of the Israeli military (and I could be very wrong, I haven't made a study of this) is that they tend to be surgical in their operations; so Mossad kills a key general or administrator, or knocks out key infra, etc., etc., rather than a full on conventional war.
  - chuckadams 3y ago
    That makes for some sticky pages in a Soldier of Fortune magazine, but has never once decided a war.
  - hirsin 3y ago
    Nothing about the last several months implies surgical strikes or key infra being targeted, and heavily leans towards glassing the enemy territory. Certainly they have that capability, and there's plenty of evidence that they do targeted killings, but that doesn't appear to be their MO when invading someone.
  - int_19h 3y ago
    Surgical strikes are easy when your enemy has little ability to intercept them. However, Iran definitely has S-300, and quite possibly also some S-400 by now. Can Israel overwhelm them? How many Israeli planes will be shot down in the process? And how will Israel respond to those losses?
kdfjgbdfkjgb 3y ago
prevent? yeah right
- thsksbd 3y ago
  The US security apparatus wants to prevent it. They know, win-lose, it'd be disastrous for us. Bibi, on the other hand, avoids jail time only as long as Ben-Gvir keeps his government propped up. And Gvir wants war.
InitialLastName 3y ago
What does it mean for Israel to win a war against Iran? Do you expect Israel to overthrow the Iranian administration, occupy a country with 10x its population, and then impose some sort of long-lasting stability on hostile territory, in a way they haven't been able to do in much smaller pieces of territory they've been occupying for almost 80 years?
krapp 3y ago
Why would the US want to prevent one of its only allies in the Middle East from crippling a nation on the "Axis of Evil" bingo card?
- rightbyte 3y ago
  I hope the incumbent president don't want to accomplish the impossible feat of losing the coming election. Also, given how cranky the unhole trinity of super powers are right now, it might domino into him being the last one.
wumeow 3y ago
We need to save weapons for the Taiwan conflict.

Working hard to prevent an Iran-Israel war, which the latter will easily win anyway.

empath-nirvana 3y ago

It's pretty much always better to not get into a war than to win a war.

rasz 3y ago
There is already a war or two, just undeclared. Is it really better to let the aggressor keep attacking and killing while you sit and watch it happen thus sending signal to all others how weak you are?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- noah_buddy 3y ago
  > the aggressor Which one are we talking about? I think this sort of discussion is best left off HN.
- rightbyte 3y ago
  It is impossible to tell if you are referring to Iran or Israel or maybe both.
  - rasz 3y ago
    No reaction to Crimea send clear message to Russia. US let Ukraine happen. No reaction to Iranian drones in Ukraine emboldened Iran resulting in 7the and now 14th. Again no response. Who will try next, NKorea or China?
  - rasz 3y ago
    I was of course referring to US. As Ben Hodges put it yesterday: "We've got to muster the political will, industrial capacity, economic leverage, and military capability to defeat Russia first in order to isolate/deter Iran and deter China from making a terrible miscalculation."
JohnDeHope 3y ago
That's a succinct way to put it. Does anybody have any suggestions for following up on this line of thinking? I wonder what other, maybe technical scenarios, where this might also be true? It's better for an error message to explain what the end user likely needs to know, rather than you heroically debugging it for them.
- int_19h 3y ago
  Here's a good read that is already very relevant wrt Gaza, and likely will be even more relevant wrt Iran. https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower-101/ https://acoup.blog/2022/10/21/collections-strategic-airpower...

thsksbd 3y ago

If the win is easy, why is the Pentagon worried and why is Bibi trying to sucker us into this conflict?

fdsjgfklsfd 3y ago
Even an easy win is expensive.
- thsksbd 3y ago
  Israel has admited it blew $1 billion in AD on Friday. AD we seemingly cant build anymore (see Ukr. war). What fraction of its arsenal do you think Iran used up on Friday? That's the real question. If half, Israel can easily smack Iran with impunity. What if it was only 5%? Shooting half their stockpile would be pretty stupid, after all.

gambiting 3y ago

>>which the latter will easily win anyway There would be literally nothing easy about fighting Iran, unless your idea of fighting is just to glass the entire country. Because any kind of conventional warfare with Iran would make Iraq and Afganistan look like kindergarden in comparison. And that's not to say that Iran is some kind of superpower - it's absolutely not. Just that the terrain is extremely difficult, the army is actually decently equipped and trained, and it's a huge and very populous country.

vizzier 3y ago
Yeah, Israel can't even control a 25km strip of land on its southern coast. War is never easy.
all2 3y ago
The understanding I have of the Israeli military (and I could be very wrong, I haven't made a study of this) is that they tend to be surgical in their operations; so Mossad kills a key general or administrator, or knocks out key infra, etc., etc., rather than a full on conventional war.
- chuckadams 3y ago
  That makes for some sticky pages in a Soldier of Fortune magazine, but has never once decided a war.
- hirsin 3y ago
  Nothing about the last several months implies surgical strikes or key infra being targeted, and heavily leans towards glassing the enemy territory. Certainly they have that capability, and there's plenty of evidence that they do targeted killings, but that doesn't appear to be their MO when invading someone.
- int_19h 3y ago
  Surgical strikes are easy when your enemy has little ability to intercept them. However, Iran definitely has S-300, and quite possibly also some S-400 by now. Can Israel overwhelm them? How many Israeli planes will be shot down in the process? And how will Israel respond to those losses?

kdfjgbdfkjgb 3y ago

prevent? yeah right

thsksbd 3y ago
The US security apparatus wants to prevent it. They know, win-lose, it'd be disastrous for us. Bibi, on the other hand, avoids jail time only as long as Ben-Gvir keeps his government propped up. And Gvir wants war.

InitialLastName 3y ago

What does it mean for Israel to win a war against Iran? Do you expect Israel to overthrow the Iranian administration, occupy a country with 10x its population, and then impose some sort of long-lasting stability on hostile territory, in a way they haven't been able to do in much smaller pieces of territory they've been occupying for almost 80 years?

krapp 3y ago

Why would the US want to prevent one of its only allies in the Middle East from crippling a nation on the "Axis of Evil" bingo card?

rightbyte 3y ago
I hope the incumbent president don't want to accomplish the impossible feat of losing the coming election. Also, given how cranky the unhole trinity of super powers are right now, it might domino into him being the last one.

wumeow 3y ago

We need to save weapons for the Taiwan conflict.