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I'd say Tesla is in alot of trouble from: - low cost EV's from China - a CEO who has alot of other interest - a product line that is starting to look pretty

I'd say Tesla is in alot of trouble from: - low cost EV's from China - a CEO who has alot of other interest - a product line that is starting to look pretty old - a new truck product that has hard far more complaints than their other lines - a cancelled low end car that will allow a big door open to low cost providers. But I've thought Tesla was in trouble before and I've been very wrong on that account. Their charging network is a nice moat but one that can be over come in a few years as setting a charging station is now a week's worth of work, unlike a gas station that can take a year just for permitting. Their stock price used to be a huge net positive for Tesla to help keep employees happy and cover up alot of mistakes on roll outs but that hasn't been great in the last year and their largest owner has alot of sell pressure on the stock due to his other interests so its hard to see the stock doing well in the next year to two. The thing that keeps me from seeing Tesla fall off a cliff is that Elon seems capable of doing incredible things if he can focus. If Tesla really starts to decline and Elon can find a way to stay off twitter and focus on it then I can't see how you short this company. Even if the worst happens to it, someone will acquire it just for their global factory setup and their battery production.

micromacrofoot 3y ago
> a CEO who has alot of other interest I nearly spit out my coffee at this, understatement of the year lol
lenerdenator 3y ago
> If Tesla really starts to decline and Elon can find a way to stay off twitter and focus on it then I can't see how you short this company. That's the rub. He blew $44 billion on the company and it's been shitting the bed for a year-and-a-half now. He's incapable of not being distracted by that site; he's spent more money on it than you and everyone you're going to be friends with will be worth, combined, by at least an order of magnitude.
brandonagr2 3y ago
The next gen platform is not cancelled, you list both "old product line" and "new truck" as contradictory items. There has been near universal praise from all cybertruck owners about how great it is, what complaints are you referring to?
dangus 3y ago
> The thing that keeps me from seeing Tesla fall off a cliff is that Elon seems capable of doing incredible things if he can focus. Pre-covid Elon Musk is not a person who exists anymore. I don’t know any other CEOs who have time to tweet 6 times per day. Tesla should have made a proper three row SUV like the EV9. The Model X is too much of an exotic low-volume car. They also should make a low cost vehicle even if it’s only sold in China. The Cybertruck isn’t that bad of a move on paper. The big 3 make all their profit on trucks. The problem with it is that North America is the slowest growth EV market, so that effort would have been better spent on cars that appeal to China and Europe. It also could have been done with far less effort and better profit margins if the design was more conventional. It could have eaten Ford and Rivian’s lunch but instead the style is going to follow the same exotic-to-played-out curve as the Chrysler PT cruiser. I.e., in terms of styling how do you make a second generation Cybertruck? It’s a dead end. Car companies can’t have CEOs who publicly discriminate against groups of people because cars are a product that are purchased across demographic lines. When Elon retweets an antisemitic post he is giving away 2.5% of potential sales to the Jewish population plus anyone who sympathizes. Subaru made itself into a major brand by being inclusive, advertising to a neglected marginalized group in the 90s. Tesla took a rapid growth company into contraction by having a CEO who is more interested in divisive identity politics than making a buck. It’s critical to the company that they part ways with Elon Musk.
- mandeepj 3y ago
  > tweet 6 times per day You meant 6 times per hours or even a min (under some cases)?
kcplate 3y ago
I think Tesla’s problems really boil down to two things: Anyone who really wants a Tesla has probably bought one already. …And… Almost everyone without an EV, but wants to buy one, probably will not buy a Tesla.

micromacrofoot 3y ago

> a CEO who has alot of other interest I nearly spit out my coffee at this, understatement of the year lol

lenerdenator 3y ago

> If Tesla really starts to decline and Elon can find a way to stay off twitter and focus on it then I can't see how you short this company. That's the rub. He blew $44 billion on the company and it's been shitting the bed for a year-and-a-half now. He's incapable of not being distracted by that site; he's spent more money on it than you and everyone you're going to be friends with will be worth, combined, by at least an order of magnitude.

brandonagr2 3y ago

The next gen platform is not cancelled, you list both "old product line" and "new truck" as contradictory items. There has been near universal praise from all cybertruck owners about how great it is, what complaints are you referring to?

dangus 3y ago

> The thing that keeps me from seeing Tesla fall off a cliff is that Elon seems capable of doing incredible things if he can focus. Pre-covid Elon Musk is not a person who exists anymore. I don’t know any other CEOs who have time to tweet 6 times per day. Tesla should have made a proper three row SUV like the EV9. The Model X is too much of an exotic low-volume car. They also should make a low cost vehicle even if it’s only sold in China. The Cybertruck isn’t that bad of a move on paper. The big 3 make all their profit on trucks. The problem with it is that North America is the slowest growth EV market, so that effort would have been better spent on cars that appeal to China and Europe. It also could have been done with far less effort and better profit margins if the design was more conventional. It could have eaten Ford and Rivian’s lunch but instead the style is going to follow the same exotic-to-played-out curve as the Chrysler PT cruiser. I.e., in terms of styling how do you make a second generation Cybertruck? It’s a dead end. Car companies can’t have CEOs who publicly discriminate against groups of people because cars are a product that are purchased across demographic lines. When Elon retweets an antisemitic post he is giving away 2.5% of potential sales to the Jewish population plus anyone who sympathizes. Subaru made itself into a major brand by being inclusive, advertising to a neglected marginalized group in the 90s. Tesla took a rapid growth company into contraction by having a CEO who is more interested in divisive identity politics than making a buck. It’s critical to the company that they part ways with Elon Musk.

mandeepj 3y ago
> tweet 6 times per day You meant 6 times per hours or even a min (under some cases)?

kcplate 3y ago

I think Tesla’s problems really boil down to two things: Anyone who really wants a Tesla has probably bought one already. …And… Almost everyone without an EV, but wants to buy one, probably will not buy a Tesla.