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Are those numbers for Germany or for the world? If for Germany, OK -- it is (still) a rich country and can pay for it's choices, including importing electricity
by ptero 3y ago
Are those numbers for Germany or for the world? If for Germany, OK -- it is (still) a rich country and can pay for it's choices, including importing electricity at whatever the market prices for it. Although it's manufacturing has been hit pretty bad.
But for the world the total use of fossil fuels is going to keep growing long-term unless we mass switch to nuclear, which is unlikely. My 2c.
- Arnt 3y agoFor Germany. I live in a manufacturing city in .de btw, and the "badly hit" manufacturers are hiring.
- ptero 3y agoManufacturers are hiring due to the workers being very scarce (older ones retiring, young ones not coming in the same numbers). That doesn't tell the story of growth or decline in manufacturing (e.g., COBOL hiring doesn't tell the story of it's growth, just that supply is shrinking faster than the demand). Look for the total industrial output instead.
- Arnt 3y agoOr just look at the headline of this page. Tesla is firing. BMW is not.
- ptero 3y agoCOBOL shops are hiring, while Apple, Cisco and Google just had layoffs. This tells us nothing about COBOL technology growth and future. Ah well, I have expressed my point, it is not a popular one at HN.
- hajile 3y agoThe real question would be: Did BMW go on a massive hiring spree in 2021-2022 like most US companies did? If not, then the comparison doesn't make any sense.
- Arnt 3y agoSorry about any misunderstanding. I tried to say that "badly hit" seems exaggerated. Roughly stable and staying stable seems more correct.
- KingOfCoders 3y agoNo they didn't, Germany has been hit by rising natural gas costs more than other Western countries due to sanctions on one hand and dropping exports (Germany was by far EUs largest exporter to Russia) on the other hand. Cost rises are mostly due to primary energy usage not electricity though. With dropping demand and rising inflation, Germany has a bad economy (just as bad as the UK, but due to different reasons, the UKs main driver is Brexit). Third, in a crisis Germans spend (even) less money for longer, while people in the US earlier overspend their credit limits. Which boosts the US economy, especially after a recession it growths earlier and faster. Because of the bad economy BMW and other companies in Germany did not hire as many people as the US did (also compare US to German labor laws as a reason why Germany is well behind the curve when it gets to economy growth).
- KingOfCoders 3y agoChemical manufactoring has been hit by the sanctions against Russia, not because of electric energy but because German chemical plants had sub-market price deals on natural gas for heat intensive processes. This has nothing to do with electric power.
- suoduandao3 3y agoIt will keep growing until it doesn't - why people don't factor in that the sun will shine a lot longer than the wells will pump when discussing these plans I don't understand. Is technology so turbulent that no one wants to make predictions beyond the next ten years any more or what?