3 ms·

Does anyone have a link to a prediction Gary Marcus made more than 24 months ago that turned out correct?

by kromem 3y ago

cratermoon 3y ago
Does anyone have a link to a prediction Sam Altman made more than 24 months ago that turned out correct?
- kromem 3y ago
  > In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. - https://moores.samaltman.com/ https://moores.samaltman.com/ (March 2021)
  - AshamedCaptain 3y ago
    Wow that is pure genious, he didn't say anything about the advice being wrong, or the legal documents comprising fictional cases.
  - iLoveOncall 3y ago
    WebMD exists since 1996, it's easy to predict something that already exists.
    - kromem 3y ago
      The prediction wasn't the existence of the product, but what was feeding into the content of the product (WebMD doesn't exist spontaneously). Also relevant: > Six patients 65 years or older (2 women and 4 men) were included in the analysis. The accuracy of the primary diagnoses made by GPT-4, clinicians, and Isabel DDx Companion was 4 of 6 patients (66.7%), 2 of 6 patients (33.3%), and 0 patients, respectively. If including differential diagnoses, the accuracy was 5 of 6 (83.3%) for GPT-4, 3 of 6 (50.0%) for clinicians, and 2 of 6 (33.3%) for Isabel DDx Companion (Table). - Use of GPT-4 to Analyze Medical Records of Patients With Extensive Investigations and Delayed Diagnosis (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10425828/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10425828/)
  - pyb 3y ago
    They can do this, badly. Is it a successful prediction?
  - cratermoon 3y ago
    Well, we don't have any computers programs that can think, so I'd call that a miss.
andy99 3y ago
Best comment I've seen about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39627249 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39627249
kromem 3y ago
I was genuinely asking, and not getting any answers I decided to research it for myself. I didn't find anything particularly compelling, but I did dig up this gem of an article about how deep learning was hitting a wall and "we are still a long way from machines that can genuinely understand human language" exactly four days before GPT-4 released: https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/ https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/

Does anyone have a link to a prediction Gary Marcus made more than 24 months ago that turned out correct?

by kromem 3y ago

Does anyone have a link to a prediction Gary Marcus made more than 24 months ago that turned out correct?

cratermoon 3y ago

Does anyone have a link to a prediction Sam Altman made more than 24 months ago that turned out correct?

kromem 3y ago
> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. - https://moores.samaltman.com/ https://moores.samaltman.com/ (March 2021)
- AshamedCaptain 3y ago
  Wow that is pure genious, he didn't say anything about the advice being wrong, or the legal documents comprising fictional cases.
- iLoveOncall 3y ago
  WebMD exists since 1996, it's easy to predict something that already exists.
  - kromem 3y ago
    The prediction wasn't the existence of the product, but what was feeding into the content of the product (WebMD doesn't exist spontaneously). Also relevant: > Six patients 65 years or older (2 women and 4 men) were included in the analysis. The accuracy of the primary diagnoses made by GPT-4, clinicians, and Isabel DDx Companion was 4 of 6 patients (66.7%), 2 of 6 patients (33.3%), and 0 patients, respectively. If including differential diagnoses, the accuracy was 5 of 6 (83.3%) for GPT-4, 3 of 6 (50.0%) for clinicians, and 2 of 6 (33.3%) for Isabel DDx Companion (Table). - Use of GPT-4 to Analyze Medical Records of Patients With Extensive Investigations and Delayed Diagnosis (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10425828/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10425828/)
- pyb 3y ago
  They can do this, badly. Is it a successful prediction?
- cratermoon 3y ago
  Well, we don't have any computers programs that can think, so I'd call that a miss.

andy99 3y ago

Best comment I've seen about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39627249 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39627249

kromem 3y ago

I was genuinely asking, and not getting any answers I decided to research it for myself. I didn't find anything particularly compelling, but I did dig up this gem of an article about how deep learning was hitting a wall and "we are still a long way from machines that can genuinely understand human language" exactly four days before GPT-4 released: https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/ https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/