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It's interesting to compare this Guardian article, which states that it was a major failure on Iran's part, and [0] which states that the attack was meant to be

It's interesting to compare this Guardian article, which states that it was a major failure on Iran's part, and [0] which states that the attack was meant to be largely symbolic and designed to be stopped - e.g. they gave hours (apparently 72) of notice, they didn't launch suddenly from their proxy/allies in closer countries. I'd also be curious how much $ in munitions it cost Iran vs. how much it cost to stop the attack. I hope this doesn't escalate. [0] https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/iran-israel-attack-drones-analysis-intl https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/iran-israel-attack...

tptacek 3y ago
There are two different dimensions on which the attack can be substantive/symbolic. In terms of directly threatening the security of the state of Israel, it is clearly symbolic, for the reasons you pointed out. When word got out about the impending attack, the consensus opinion among analysts was that it would be symbolic (not least because most of Israel's proxies have been confining themselves, uncharacteristically, to symbolic attacks since October 7). As an expression of military force, the consensus opinion I'm reading is that it was not symbolic; they picked symbolic targets, but launched a lot of "ordnance", and had a seemingly clear strategic goal of overwhelming Israeli air defenses, as a demonstration of their own military power. That being the case, it backfired badly. It is effectively an anti-deterrant (as well as a giant advertisement for Boeing).
- tguvot 3y ago
  also giant ad for IAI. Arrow 3 was ordered by Germany few months ago. Now, probably, more orders will follow
- juliusdavies 3y ago
  "We are in the FAFO phase of escalation control, my friend." - Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1779562810923688350 https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/17795628109236883...
tomerbd 3y ago
> I hope this doesn't escalate. I hope the technical debt does not explode on me one day so i'll ignore it. On last 10 years 250,000 missiles were prepared in the north to attack israel, 10,000 in gaza, Iraq, Syria, Yemen all are collecting weapons to attack israel + not to talk about Iran nuclearization. Iran clearly states it's going to destroy israel. So when you say hope this does not escalete how do you deal with all these missiles and soon to be nuclear missiles? just let israel vanish from the map? I fully understand Israel is not our concern, but should we leave it to have a second holocaust?
- weatherlite 3y ago
  > I fully understand Israel is not our concern, but should we leave it to have a second holocaust? Well a second holocaust would definitely be everyone's concern because it will be a nuclear war with millions dead on both sides and big chunks of the world's energy resources basically gone. There are 80 million people in Iran, where the hell are they supposed to go after a nuclear war - to Europe? How will Europe deal with that when energy prices go up 2x/3x? This is becoming a global problem, not a regional problem.
- dunekid 3y ago
  Didn't we have that one already? In Palestine, in 1948, and continuing today. People's religion are different, but their origins are the same, and propaganda is clearly inspired from it.

tptacek 3y ago

There are two different dimensions on which the attack can be substantive/symbolic. In terms of directly threatening the security of the state of Israel, it is clearly symbolic, for the reasons you pointed out. When word got out about the impending attack, the consensus opinion among analysts was that it would be symbolic (not least because most of Israel's proxies have been confining themselves, uncharacteristically, to symbolic attacks since October 7). As an expression of military force, the consensus opinion I'm reading is that it was not symbolic; they picked symbolic targets, but launched a lot of "ordnance", and had a seemingly clear strategic goal of overwhelming Israeli air defenses, as a demonstration of their own military power. That being the case, it backfired badly. It is effectively an anti-deterrant (as well as a giant advertisement for Boeing).

tguvot 3y ago
also giant ad for IAI. Arrow 3 was ordered by Germany few months ago. Now, probably, more orders will follow
juliusdavies 3y ago
"We are in the FAFO phase of escalation control, my friend." - Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1779562810923688350 https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/17795628109236883...

tomerbd 3y ago

> I hope this doesn't escalate. I hope the technical debt does not explode on me one day so i'll ignore it. On last 10 years 250,000 missiles were prepared in the north to attack israel, 10,000 in gaza, Iraq, Syria, Yemen all are collecting weapons to attack israel + not to talk about Iran nuclearization. Iran clearly states it's going to destroy israel. So when you say hope this does not escalete how do you deal with all these missiles and soon to be nuclear missiles? just let israel vanish from the map? I fully understand Israel is not our concern, but should we leave it to have a second holocaust?

weatherlite 3y ago
> I fully understand Israel is not our concern, but should we leave it to have a second holocaust? Well a second holocaust would definitely be everyone's concern because it will be a nuclear war with millions dead on both sides and big chunks of the world's energy resources basically gone. There are 80 million people in Iran, where the hell are they supposed to go after a nuclear war - to Europe? How will Europe deal with that when energy prices go up 2x/3x? This is becoming a global problem, not a regional problem.
dunekid 3y ago
Didn't we have that one already? In Palestine, in 1948, and continuing today. People's religion are different, but their origins are the same, and propaganda is clearly inspired from it.