4 ms·

Enforcement of traffic offenses is down 95% in the past 10 years in San Francisco. Explains the outcome and the claims that "crime is down" https://x.com/zachc

Enforcement of traffic offenses is down 95% in the past 10 years in San Francisco. Explains the outcome and the claims that "crime is down" https://x.com/zachcoelius/status/1779373752905589221 https://x.com/zachcoelius/status/1779373752905589221

fwip 3y ago
Hang on now, you've begged the question. Your data shows that traffic citations are down. It doesn't show anything about whether that's due to lax enforcement or less occurrences. In fact, if you look at a lot of those graphs, they hit a low point in 2020 - right when covid WFH would have drastically reduced a lot of traffic, and in turn, traffic crimes.
- paulsutter 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - fwip 3y ago
    I could search my heart to try to interpret your sarcastic comments in good-faith. Like, maybe you mean, "Surely, there should be a roughly linear relationship between the number of cars on the road and the number of unlawful traffic activities, and the decrease in driving in San Francisco was only X%, not 95%." To which I could say something like, "Hmm, yeah, that's a good point. Maybe less people run red lights if they aren't feeling frustrated from traffic already - or maybe the opposite, maybe more people run them if there isn't any perceived cross traffic. Would it be okay, or even good, to loosen traffic enforcement if the actual risk of the illegal activity has decreased?" But honestly? You sound like you've got some really strong guiding narratives that you're not willing to talk about like an adult. So I'm not gonna play.
    - kirubakaran 3y ago
      Considering the chart starts in 2014, I can understand the parent commenter having difficulty taking your Covid-19 argument in good faith. What data would you need to see to change your mind? PS: I went looking for data, and the number of traffic fatalities per year haven't gone up significantly since 2014. So I stand corrected. It's a big relief, as an SF resident; parent commenter's chart was really worrying. Phew https://sfgov.org/scorecards/transportation/traffic-fatalities https://sfgov.org/scorecards/transportation/traffic-fataliti...
      - genewitch 3y ago
        traffic enforcement probably doesn't (strongly) correlate with traffic fatalities. One is a revenue generation stream, the other is just probabilities.
- runeb 3y ago
  While you’re correct that you would see the same graphs if drivers had become exemplary, observing traffic in SF anecdotally point towards the opposite. It’s frankly shocking.
genericlogic 3y ago
While I can't comment on the stats, I do have a story. A long time ago I was working and living in SF. I had just finished work and was heading over to a nearby bar. I was waiting at a very busy intersection for the cross walk to signal to go. I had recently moved to SF and all my new friends warned me about cars, so I was being cautious. There was a guy standing in front of me with big headphones on looking at his phone. He just stepped into the street. Out of the corner of me eye I saw a car taking a turn coming right at him too fast. I reached out, grabbed him by his backpack and pulled him back on the sidewalk. His eyes were firmly fixed on me as the car zoomed by where he would have been, him totally oblivious. He gave the the WTF is your problem face then safely crossed the street. I think about that guy sometimes and wonder what his version of the story is. Further I sometimes question if he was ever in danger and I was just being overly cautious.
- kirubakaran 3y ago
  Despite what he thinks, I'm glad you did what you did. Thanks! It reminded me of the movie Due Date: Peter Highman: How have you made it this far? How have you not run yourself over in a car? Ethan Tremblay: I've done that. Peter Highman: How have you survived? That's my question. Ethan Tremblay: Mostly luck. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1231583/quotes/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1231583/quotes/
- temp_praneshp 3y ago
  If it's any solace, I've had something very similar happen. An idiot was jogging near 4th and King, and a car jumped the light after the left turn was red and the walk lights came on. I had trained myself to wait and look, but he went on till I blocked him. He was annoyed at first (reasonable), saw the car go by, but never said sorry or thank you. I never put on headphones till I was inside the train, as a rule of thumb.
saulrh 3y ago
SF traffic fatalities have not been increasing year-over-year. You can't cast blame for an outcome that doesn't exist. Data: https://www.chp.ca.gov/programs-services/services-information/switrs-internet-statewide-integrated-traffic-records-system/switrs-2020-report https://www.chp.ca.gov/programs-services/services-informatio.... SWITRS hasn't published a report since 2020 due to the pandemic, but that works perfectly fine for my purposes because I'd have probably had to discard those years for other reasons, and since we're talking about a ten- or fifteen-year trend I'm perfectly okay coming to a conclusion based on data from 2011 to 2020. Traffic fatalities per city are in section 8 chart E. Fatalities have also not been increasing per mile traveled. Data: https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/daily-miles-traveled https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/daily-miles-travele... I choose traffic fatalities as the metric because federal and state reporting laws mean that these numbers will be effectively complete - there is no sampling or selection effect, unlike numbers about traffic enforcement.
- KennyBlanken 3y ago
  The link you included is not to deaths per mile traveled, it's to miles traveled. Even if deaths are relatively flat, they should be going down as older, less safe cars age out of the fleet of vehicles on the road. As time goes on, a greater percentage of vehicles have better crash safety, ABS, traction control, better airbag systems, and 'driver assistance' aids. Make sure any stats you do cite include pedestrian and cyclist injuries, but note that exposure data for them is exceptionally poor, because they are typically not included in traffic survey data collected by contractors hired by the government to do traffic counts. Overall pedestrian and cyclist deaths have shot up, by the way, and are the highest ever. https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deaths-high-traffic-car https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deat...
- jeffbee 3y ago
  "Preliminary" SWITRS data through end of 2023 is queryable on TIMS.

fwip 3y ago

Hang on now, you've begged the question. Your data shows that traffic citations are down. It doesn't show anything about whether that's due to lax enforcement or less occurrences. In fact, if you look at a lot of those graphs, they hit a low point in 2020 - right when covid WFH would have drastically reduced a lot of traffic, and in turn, traffic crimes.

paulsutter 3y ago
[flagged]
- fwip 3y ago
  I could search my heart to try to interpret your sarcastic comments in good-faith. Like, maybe you mean, "Surely, there should be a roughly linear relationship between the number of cars on the road and the number of unlawful traffic activities, and the decrease in driving in San Francisco was only X%, not 95%." To which I could say something like, "Hmm, yeah, that's a good point. Maybe less people run red lights if they aren't feeling frustrated from traffic already - or maybe the opposite, maybe more people run them if there isn't any perceived cross traffic. Would it be okay, or even good, to loosen traffic enforcement if the actual risk of the illegal activity has decreased?" But honestly? You sound like you've got some really strong guiding narratives that you're not willing to talk about like an adult. So I'm not gonna play.
  - kirubakaran 3y ago
    Considering the chart starts in 2014, I can understand the parent commenter having difficulty taking your Covid-19 argument in good faith. What data would you need to see to change your mind? PS: I went looking for data, and the number of traffic fatalities per year haven't gone up significantly since 2014. So I stand corrected. It's a big relief, as an SF resident; parent commenter's chart was really worrying. Phew https://sfgov.org/scorecards/transportation/traffic-fatalities https://sfgov.org/scorecards/transportation/traffic-fataliti...
    - genewitch 3y ago
      traffic enforcement probably doesn't (strongly) correlate with traffic fatalities. One is a revenue generation stream, the other is just probabilities.
runeb 3y ago
While you’re correct that you would see the same graphs if drivers had become exemplary, observing traffic in SF anecdotally point towards the opposite. It’s frankly shocking.

genericlogic 3y ago

While I can't comment on the stats, I do have a story. A long time ago I was working and living in SF. I had just finished work and was heading over to a nearby bar. I was waiting at a very busy intersection for the cross walk to signal to go. I had recently moved to SF and all my new friends warned me about cars, so I was being cautious. There was a guy standing in front of me with big headphones on looking at his phone. He just stepped into the street. Out of the corner of me eye I saw a car taking a turn coming right at him too fast. I reached out, grabbed him by his backpack and pulled him back on the sidewalk. His eyes were firmly fixed on me as the car zoomed by where he would have been, him totally oblivious. He gave the the WTF is your problem face then safely crossed the street. I think about that guy sometimes and wonder what his version of the story is. Further I sometimes question if he was ever in danger and I was just being overly cautious.

kirubakaran 3y ago
Despite what he thinks, I'm glad you did what you did. Thanks! It reminded me of the movie Due Date: Peter Highman: How have you made it this far? How have you not run yourself over in a car? Ethan Tremblay: I've done that. Peter Highman: How have you survived? That's my question. Ethan Tremblay: Mostly luck. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1231583/quotes/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1231583/quotes/
temp_praneshp 3y ago
If it's any solace, I've had something very similar happen. An idiot was jogging near 4th and King, and a car jumped the light after the left turn was red and the walk lights came on. I had trained myself to wait and look, but he went on till I blocked him. He was annoyed at first (reasonable), saw the car go by, but never said sorry or thank you. I never put on headphones till I was inside the train, as a rule of thumb.

saulrh 3y ago

SF traffic fatalities have not been increasing year-over-year. You can't cast blame for an outcome that doesn't exist. Data: https://www.chp.ca.gov/programs-services/services-information/switrs-internet-statewide-integrated-traffic-records-system/switrs-2020-report https://www.chp.ca.gov/programs-services/services-informatio.... SWITRS hasn't published a report since 2020 due to the pandemic, but that works perfectly fine for my purposes because I'd have probably had to discard those years for other reasons, and since we're talking about a ten- or fifteen-year trend I'm perfectly okay coming to a conclusion based on data from 2011 to 2020. Traffic fatalities per city are in section 8 chart E. Fatalities have also not been increasing per mile traveled. Data: https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/daily-miles-traveled https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/daily-miles-travele... I choose traffic fatalities as the metric because federal and state reporting laws mean that these numbers will be effectively complete - there is no sampling or selection effect, unlike numbers about traffic enforcement.

KennyBlanken 3y ago
The link you included is not to deaths per mile traveled, it's to miles traveled. Even if deaths are relatively flat, they should be going down as older, less safe cars age out of the fleet of vehicles on the road. As time goes on, a greater percentage of vehicles have better crash safety, ABS, traction control, better airbag systems, and 'driver assistance' aids. Make sure any stats you do cite include pedestrian and cyclist injuries, but note that exposure data for them is exceptionally poor, because they are typically not included in traffic survey data collected by contractors hired by the government to do traffic counts. Overall pedestrian and cyclist deaths have shot up, by the way, and are the highest ever. https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deaths-high-traffic-car https://www.npr.org/2023/06/26/1184034017/us-pedestrian-deat...
jeffbee 3y ago
"Preliminary" SWITRS data through end of 2023 is queryable on TIMS.