3 ms·
Thank you for the balanced take. Stopping oil cold turkey would be a disaster for our civilization. Some think of oil merely as fuel for our cars and trucks, ma
by perrygeo 3y ago
Thank you for the balanced take. Stopping oil cold turkey would be a disaster for our civilization. Some think of oil merely as fuel for our cars and trucks, maybe for heating homes and businesses. Stopping all that would be relatively easy! But we've built our entire agricultural system, our entire infrastructure, our entire medical system on non-fuel applications of oil - plastics, fertilizer, synthetics, tar, steel and so many other industrial materials that require fossilized carbon, with no viable substitutes in sight. We need oil now, to build technology that will eventually replace oil! EV, electrified cities, solar panels, wind farms, nuclear and hydro power, food hubs, 15 minute city infrastructure, public transport... all require fossil fuels to bootstrap them.
I think the most helpful framing is to look out ~100 years. In 2124, will humanity be using fossil fuels? No, highly unlikely. Oil is done: either through depletion, or EROI descent, or explicit measures to cap CO2 pollution, or a combination. We will see a world without oil soon, one way or the other. The question is how gracefully can we make this transition without causing massive human suffering? Part of that graceful transition involves the responsible use of our remaining fossil hydrocarbons.
"Just stop oil" gives us zero chance of pulling off a smooth transition and plunges us straight into economic collapse with no regard for human well-being. "Drill-baby-drill" raises the risk of catastrophic climate crises with no regard for human well-being. Neither is a good mental framework if you care about helping humanity deal with this predicament.