5 ms·

Little damage and > A growing chorus of US congressional leaders are calling for the supplemental aid bill to be passed, with US Senate majority leader Chuck S

Little damage and > A growing chorus of US congressional leaders are calling for the supplemental aid bill to be passed, with US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer saying it was the clearest way to help Israel. The $95bn supplemental spending bill includes $14bn for Israel ... This particular attack seems to have been quite successful for Israel. Hopefully that will be part of their retaliation calculation. Everyone loses if this escalates further.

stareatgoats 3y ago
> Everyone loses Not everyone. For every escalation there is a small risktaking contingency that cashes in, all according to their calculations. These cliques are entrenched in their communities, exist on both sides and are dependent on each other to keep the conflict alive. Innocent victims be damned. This is how sectarian conflict can finally engulf the whole world if reason is not allowed to prevail, and these conflictdependent risktakers are not contained.
mytailorisrich 3y ago
Most likely that Iran calibrated this attacking not to cause much damage. They also made clear that this was it. So they had to respond to Israel's attack but they want to avoid further escalation, which probably suits Israel as well.
- mamonster 3y ago
  Yeah, they just want to respond enough to not seem weak, but otherwise Iran is quite happy letting the spotlight be on Gaza. The biggest question now is what Netanyahu will do as retaliation(which he did promise).
  - xenospn 3y ago
    He won’t do shit. No one wants a war with Iran. They’ll just keep bombing their targets in Syria and Lebanon.
    - mytailorisrich 3y ago
      That's most likely, indeed.
    - tptacek 3y ago
      Countries outside of Iran are where Iran's military actually operates. The Lebanon embassy strike wasn't a reprisal: they killed the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon. I think --- unfortunately --- that you're actually quite wrong, and that the Netanyahu administration would be more than happy to be engaged in an open war with Iran (which they would with certainty win, not just because of US support, and not just because the IDF/IAF is much better equipped than the IRGC, but also because the entire rest of the region is locked in an Arab/Persia conflict that is if anything more salient than the one Israel is in). Iran's air assault response here looks surprisingly weak. They telegraphed it in advance, clearly set it up to avoid causing any major civilian disruption, announced "the matter can be deemed concluded", and basically managed to create a giant advertisement for Boeing and for pan-Arab resistance to Iran. Ever since October 7, the vibe I get is that they're trying to Homer themselves back into the hedges as quickly as they can.
      - juliusdavies 3y ago
        It’s a replay of their Soleimani response which they also telegraphed in advance, only targeted military targets, and also resulted in zero fatalities. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani I see a clear message of: “please stop assassinating our generals, and next time we won’t be saying please.”
kstenerud 3y ago
The West will lose, but Israel won't. America has to support them in case of a full scale war or risk losing even more prestige and influence, which further opens the door for a new world order based on China. Netanyahu knows that once the missiles fly freely, nobody's going to look too closely at Gaza or the West Bank. Meanwhile, in open warfare Israel can pound Iran into dust, sustaining minimal damage in the process. Jordan and Egypt will do their best to stay out of it, and America will be stuck retaliating for anything that hits US troops in Israel via Syria.

stareatgoats 3y ago

> Everyone loses Not everyone. For every escalation there is a small risktaking contingency that cashes in, all according to their calculations. These cliques are entrenched in their communities, exist on both sides and are dependent on each other to keep the conflict alive. Innocent victims be damned. This is how sectarian conflict can finally engulf the whole world if reason is not allowed to prevail, and these conflictdependent risktakers are not contained.

mytailorisrich 3y ago

Most likely that Iran calibrated this attacking not to cause much damage. They also made clear that this was it. So they had to respond to Israel's attack but they want to avoid further escalation, which probably suits Israel as well.

mamonster 3y ago
Yeah, they just want to respond enough to not seem weak, but otherwise Iran is quite happy letting the spotlight be on Gaza. The biggest question now is what Netanyahu will do as retaliation(which he did promise).
- xenospn 3y ago
  He won’t do shit. No one wants a war with Iran. They’ll just keep bombing their targets in Syria and Lebanon.
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    That's most likely, indeed.
  - tptacek 3y ago
    Countries outside of Iran are where Iran's military actually operates. The Lebanon embassy strike wasn't a reprisal: they killed the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon. I think --- unfortunately --- that you're actually quite wrong, and that the Netanyahu administration would be more than happy to be engaged in an open war with Iran (which they would with certainty win, not just because of US support, and not just because the IDF/IAF is much better equipped than the IRGC, but also because the entire rest of the region is locked in an Arab/Persia conflict that is if anything more salient than the one Israel is in). Iran's air assault response here looks surprisingly weak. They telegraphed it in advance, clearly set it up to avoid causing any major civilian disruption, announced "the matter can be deemed concluded", and basically managed to create a giant advertisement for Boeing and for pan-Arab resistance to Iran. Ever since October 7, the vibe I get is that they're trying to Homer themselves back into the hedges as quickly as they can.
    - juliusdavies 3y ago
      It’s a replay of their Soleimani response which they also telegraphed in advance, only targeted military targets, and also resulted in zero fatalities. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani I see a clear message of: “please stop assassinating our generals, and next time we won’t be saying please.”

kstenerud 3y ago

The West will lose, but Israel won't. America has to support them in case of a full scale war or risk losing even more prestige and influence, which further opens the door for a new world order based on China. Netanyahu knows that once the missiles fly freely, nobody's going to look too closely at Gaza or the West Bank. Meanwhile, in open warfare Israel can pound Iran into dust, sustaining minimal damage in the process. Jordan and Egypt will do their best to stay out of it, and America will be stuck retaliating for anything that hits US troops in Israel via Syria.