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Can someone provide the unbiased game theory strategy on what happens next? And what will this conflict look like in 12 months?

HDThoreaun 2y ago
Basically someone has to blink. My estimation is that the Israeli government has a lot more latitude since the Iranian governemnt is sort of fueled by this hatred of Israel and the US so they really cant be seen to back down. Luckily this attack wasnt really that bad and to me signifies that Iran doesnt want to escalate so I think likely Israel blinks now with the excuse of focusing on Gaza.
- tguvot 2y ago
  attack was really that bad, it's just israeli air defenses were better
  - HDThoreaun 2y ago
    Iran knew that though, which was the point, and does make the attack not that bad. Maybe Im just being hopeful though but it really does seem like Iran did what they could to escalate as little as they realistically could and Israelis will respect that.
    - tguvot 2y ago
      it's like if you wearing a bullet proof vest, i shot you. fail to kill. and my defense for attempted murder "he knew it was going to happen and had vest on. it's not that bad after all"
      - mhb 2y ago
        And also you get charged hundreds of millions of dollars for using the vest.
      - HDThoreaun 2y ago
        More like "if I didnt try to kill you I would be killed myself, so I shot you in a place I knew it wouldnt kill you". Iran's government has positioned itself so that it needs to respond to avoid unrest. They could not have done nothing, and this wasnt much in the scheme of things.
        tguvot 2y ago
        israeli news report now that israel intercepted ~100 ballistic missiles. this is in addition to cruise missiles and uav. this is "not that bad" ?
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        I mean yea, launching a bunch of missiles that you know will never land isnt that bad.
        tguvot 2y ago
        you do realize that it is literally first time that so many ballistic missiles are shot together and nobody even knew till today if it's possible in general to defend against such attack ?
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        What do you think Iran shouldve done?
        nec4b 2y ago
        Stop supporting terrorist.
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        I dont see what that does to quell the domestic calls for a response to the embassy attack. Of course I want Iran to stop the bullshit, but the realty is that they couldnt let this attack go unless they wanted massive unrest. So the question remains, how should Iran respond to the embassy attack? To me this seems like just about that absolute minimum they couldve done.
wslh 2y ago
One hypothesis, if Iran doesn't escalate more, is that Israel take advantage of not retaliating (which will be devastating for Iran and probably be close to a global war) and ask in return to have a harder stance on Iran. The world has been blind about Iran converting into a nuclear power and USA stance very soft for being USA, the top military and business power in the world. The other hypothesis is retaliation... which obviously turns to a global war. I don't know if precisely a WWIII because the domestic situation of well developed countries is lazy regarding military action.
- bluefishinit 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - Protostome 2y ago
    [flagged]
- wslh 2y ago
  At least 8 hours after it seems I am not that far [1]. [1] "Fending Off Iran Attack Is a Major Israeli Achievement. Retaliation Would Risk an All-out Regional War" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-14/ty-article/.premium/fending-off-iran-is-a-major-israeli-achievement-retaliation-risks-all-out-war/0000018e-db86-df04-adae-ffd6537f0000 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-14/ty-article/.p...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

HDThoreaun 2y ago

Basically someone has to blink. My estimation is that the Israeli government has a lot more latitude since the Iranian governemnt is sort of fueled by this hatred of Israel and the US so they really cant be seen to back down. Luckily this attack wasnt really that bad and to me signifies that Iran doesnt want to escalate so I think likely Israel blinks now with the excuse of focusing on Gaza.

tguvot 2y ago
attack was really that bad, it's just israeli air defenses were better
- HDThoreaun 2y ago
  Iran knew that though, which was the point, and does make the attack not that bad. Maybe Im just being hopeful though but it really does seem like Iran did what they could to escalate as little as they realistically could and Israelis will respect that.
  - tguvot 2y ago
    it's like if you wearing a bullet proof vest, i shot you. fail to kill. and my defense for attempted murder "he knew it was going to happen and had vest on. it's not that bad after all"
    - mhb 2y ago
      And also you get charged hundreds of millions of dollars for using the vest.
    - HDThoreaun 2y ago
      More like "if I didnt try to kill you I would be killed myself, so I shot you in a place I knew it wouldnt kill you". Iran's government has positioned itself so that it needs to respond to avoid unrest. They could not have done nothing, and this wasnt much in the scheme of things.
      - tguvot 2y ago
        israeli news report now that israel intercepted ~100 ballistic missiles. this is in addition to cruise missiles and uav. this is "not that bad" ?
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        I mean yea, launching a bunch of missiles that you know will never land isnt that bad.
        tguvot 2y ago
        you do realize that it is literally first time that so many ballistic missiles are shot together and nobody even knew till today if it's possible in general to defend against such attack ?
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        What do you think Iran shouldve done?
        nec4b 2y ago
        Stop supporting terrorist.
        HDThoreaun 2y ago
        I dont see what that does to quell the domestic calls for a response to the embassy attack. Of course I want Iran to stop the bullshit, but the realty is that they couldnt let this attack go unless they wanted massive unrest. So the question remains, how should Iran respond to the embassy attack? To me this seems like just about that absolute minimum they couldve done.

wslh 2y ago

One hypothesis, if Iran doesn't escalate more, is that Israel take advantage of not retaliating (which will be devastating for Iran and probably be close to a global war) and ask in return to have a harder stance on Iran. The world has been blind about Iran converting into a nuclear power and USA stance very soft for being USA, the top military and business power in the world. The other hypothesis is retaliation... which obviously turns to a global war. I don't know if precisely a WWIII because the domestic situation of well developed countries is lazy regarding military action.

bluefishinit 2y ago
[flagged]
- Protostome 2y ago
  [flagged]
wslh 2y ago
At least 8 hours after it seems I am not that far [1]. [1] "Fending Off Iran Attack Is a Major Israeli Achievement. Retaliation Would Risk an All-out Regional War" https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-14/ty-article/.premium/fending-off-iran-is-a-major-israeli-achievement-retaliation-risks-all-out-war/0000018e-db86-df04-adae-ffd6537f0000 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-14/ty-article/.p...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]