5 ms·

It is a lottery though. My partner started a business and literally from her first ad she was inundated with customers. Now it's a $10m/year bootstrapped busin

It is a lottery though. My partner started a business and literally from her first ad she was inundated with customers. Now it's a $10m/year bootstrapped business. I've done exactly the same thing and had 0 customers. If you are falling into the Hard Fact / Future Vision categories it can very hard to get customers because no one is ever looking for your product.

spxneo 3y ago
that just means she had the PMF to begin with if you done the same and have 0 customers that means you did something incorrectly. it is IMPOSSIBLE to do the same thing that works and net 0 customers.
- nivertech 3y ago
  Wrong, even if both agents are identical, and they're operating in the same environment, each run of the simulation will be slightly different, i.e. the process is stochastic (non-deterministic). In reality the agents are not identical (e.g. different skillsets, or attractiveness to clients), and the environments are different (e.g. different professional or social networks). And, as another commenter pointed out, the time when agents are starting is also a factor, but my point is that even if they start at the same time the result might be different. Lastly, there is a butterfly effect - that small changes in the initial conditions may result in vastly different outcomes.
- digestivetires 3y ago
  You can do same thing at different time. (Missed the chance)
calderwoodra 3y ago
There's not enough details here to say what she did right and you did wrong, but it generally comes down to her idea probably solved a problem customers were willing to pay a lot for today and your idea didn't. If her idea was "when you pay me x, you get 3x back in new revenue" and your idea was a tarpit idea like "help people find what to eat tonight", it's really obvious why you failed.
shostack 3y ago
What is her business?
kristiandupont 3y ago
And when I write a blog post, I write verbs and nouns and adjectives exactly like Paul Graham does but he keeps winning the lottery of readers.

spxneo 3y ago

that just means she had the PMF to begin with if you done the same and have 0 customers that means you did something incorrectly. it is IMPOSSIBLE to do the same thing that works and net 0 customers.

nivertech 3y ago
Wrong, even if both agents are identical, and they're operating in the same environment, each run of the simulation will be slightly different, i.e. the process is stochastic (non-deterministic). In reality the agents are not identical (e.g. different skillsets, or attractiveness to clients), and the environments are different (e.g. different professional or social networks). And, as another commenter pointed out, the time when agents are starting is also a factor, but my point is that even if they start at the same time the result might be different. Lastly, there is a butterfly effect - that small changes in the initial conditions may result in vastly different outcomes.
digestivetires 3y ago
You can do same thing at different time. (Missed the chance)

calderwoodra 3y ago

There's not enough details here to say what she did right and you did wrong, but it generally comes down to her idea probably solved a problem customers were willing to pay a lot for today and your idea didn't. If her idea was "when you pay me x, you get 3x back in new revenue" and your idea was a tarpit idea like "help people find what to eat tonight", it's really obvious why you failed.

shostack 3y ago

What is her business?

kristiandupont 3y ago

And when I write a blog post, I write verbs and nouns and adjectives exactly like Paul Graham does but he keeps winning the lottery of readers.