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It's again the same opportunity cost, though. China has to invest a lot of money just get access at scale to the same class of chips as the rest of the world. T
by The_Colonel 3y ago
It's again the same opportunity cost, though. China has to invest a lot of money just get access at scale to the same class of chips as the rest of the world. That money could be used for actual innovation instead.
> The policy doesn't even succeed on its own terms.
The policy doesn't succeed only if you limit your thinking on the chip industry and ignore the overall strategic context. Reducing China's access to latest & greatest is only the proximate reason for the export controls, with the overall strategic competition being the ultimate reason. It's simply a mean to an end.
As you said in your previous post, China would likely prefer to continue buying western chips, because being forced to develop their own will not improve their strategic posture, at least in the next years/decades.
- mrjin 3y agoIndeed, China preferred buying from external sources as merchants won the debate on whether to buy or to research and it's indeed cheaper in short term. Dependency on critical parts from external could be the only viable solution for smaller countries, but for countries like China is a intolerable risk to national security and has to be addressed at highest priority. The embargo just demonstrated how bad it could be, and it actually can be much worse in different contexts. So, obviously R&D is the only option left on the table. Cost is no longer a problem.