3 ms·

Why is there a demographic collapse if housing is easily affordable? Most of my friends here in the EU allocate the biggest chunk of their salary to paying rent

Why is there a demographic collapse if housing is easily affordable? Most of my friends here in the EU allocate the biggest chunk of their salary to paying rent for single-bedroom apartments, I don't dare to imagine what a horror would it be to live in one as a family with children, having no individual room for yourself and no individual rooms for them. I am fortunate to have an extra room but having kids still means giving up my home office room turning it into children bedroom. Isn't this a major factor in making decisions about whether or not to reproduce?

kmeisthax 3y ago
Sexism. Japanese women have to pick between their career and having a family, so they pick the former. There's a lot of old men running Japan that won't hire married women or expect women who get married to leave the workforce. Korea, which has even worse demographic problems than Japan, also has significantly worse sexism in ways I'd have to link you to a three-part Moon Channel YouTube video essay to even scratch the surface of. Immigration is also a factor: getting permanent residency in Japan is a pain in the ass. America doesn't even notice its declining birth rate because everyone wants to move here and we let them in.
- satvikpendem 3y ago
  I am convinced that even if you solve the sexism problem, people will still not have children. See Denmark for example.
- soraminazuki 3y ago
  Employment discrimination has been illegal in Japan for decades now, well before many of us were even born. Expecting women to leave the workforce is definitely not popular opinion either, unless you're talking about people who retired of age long ago.
  - qwerty456127 3y ago
    Outlawing a common norm is not enough (often to the point of futile) to actually get rid of it. You have to somehow change the actual common view and this, more probably than not, requires a lot of time to pass. The easiest path is to use popular culture to teach the teens something is uncool (or contrary) so they adhere to this value once their generation grows up and gets in charge. AFAIK this is how modern Japanese were taught to enjoy coffee - coffee candies strategically came first. Another arguably problematic thing I think I know about Japan (I hope I'm wrong in this as well) is their work culture strongly discourages switching jobs. Their salary is a pure function of how long did they work in the same company, it drops to the junior level once they switch (no matter how skilled they are) and nobody wants to hire old people because it's almost impossible to fire them (as well as anybody else) once hired even if they don't do the actual job nearly well enough to make sense. Am I wrong?
    - soraminazuki 3y ago
      I'd say the common view has changed decades ago. Public opinion regarding equal employment is pretty much the same in Japan and the US. > Another arguably problematic thing I think I know about Japan (I hope I'm wrong in this as well) is their work culture strongly discourages switching jobs. It's not uncommon to see people switch jobs. I think public perception on that topic has changed too in the past few decades. But one thing worth noting is that as you mentioned, Japanese workers have stronger legal protections compared to the US. It's more difficult to fire someone in Japan, so people are incentivized to keep their current jobs. > Their salary is a pure function of how long did they work in the same company I believe this fell out of favor, but not in a good way. The move away from seniority-based wage is often used as euphemism for pay cuts. Another case of corporations not being your friends thing. > nobody wants to hire old people because it's almost impossible to fire them This unfortunately is a problem, at least for jobs with decent pay I think? Unless you're rich, of course.
- qwerty456127 3y ago
  > Sexism. Japanese women have to pick between their career and having a family, so they pick the former. The same is often said about western countries but by contrary attributed to non-sexism. Conservatives love to say women don't have children because they easily choose careers as the society is not sexist enough anymore. > There's a lot of old men running Japan that won't hire married women Wow. This breaks anothse stereotype in me. I would expect he majority of old Japanese men to be super-wise, kind and caring in a good way, also simultaneously careless in a god (zen) way so they would do what is good and give up what is not even if a tradition demands that. > Immigration is also a factor: getting permanent residency in Japan is a pain in the ass. Why wouldn't they gradually enable flow of immigration from ethnically close nations? E.g. many people from Mongolia or Yakutia (a major Asian state within Russia) would probably love to immigrate to Japan and be willing to adhere to Japanese culture.
  - soraminazuki 3y ago
    > I would expect he majority of old Japanese men to be super-wise ... I'd argue that nationality says the least about a person. Some people are nice and some are painful to deal with. It's the same everywhere. > Why wouldn't they gradually enable flow of immigration from ethnically close nations? Conservative government and lack of competent liberal opposition.
    - qwerty456127 3y ago
      > I'd argue that nationality says the least about a person. Absolutely sure. Nationality does not define the person. But the culture of the society a person gets raised in influences them a lot. Hence the stereotype there are just two major kinds of people in Japan: kawaii and zen :-))
  - numpad0 3y ago
    > E.g. many people from Mongolia or Yakutia (a major Asian state within Russia) Wow, yeah, racism wise Japan and Mongolia are closer than Korea or China, sure, but the split had estimated to have happened at least 40k years ago, that's couple times older than the oldest known human writings. It's just DNAs and some highly academic phonological elements that these regions share.
- somenameforme 3y ago
  America doesn't notice its declining birth rate because it's relatively recent. Japan's birth rate collapsed about 40 years ago. [1] By contrast the US' decline is only trending towards dangerous levels quite recently. The graph in the link includes both the US and Japan and is quite enlightening! Fertility is an extremely lagging indicator, which is why places like Japan (and soon South Korea) are essentially mirrors into the future that awaits the West at large as well, if things don't change. Immigration isn't a solution. Japan is losing about 0.5% of their population per year - including immigration, and that rate is accelerating. It's unclear where their equilibrium point will be, other than substantially worse than that. In the US at even "just" a 1% annual decline, you'd need 3.3 million migrants per year, forever, to maintain population levels. And you don't want random uneducated individuals who don't even speak the language, or you risk destroying the very thing that motivates people to want to migrate. You want skilled, educated, English speaking individuals who are capable of and motivated to work. For some contrast in 2022 we admitted a total of about a million people, and only 270,284 of them were for employment. [2] [1] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?contextual=default&locations=JP-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?contextu... [2] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/2023_0818_plcy_yearbook_immigration_statistics_fy2022.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/2023_0818_pl... (page 18)
  - kmeisthax 3y ago
    I didn't suggest immigration was the solution. It's a stopgap, and an accidental one, but one that happens to be working out in America's favor right now. If we had an immigration system like Japan's then we'd have demographic decline closer to Japan's than our own. As for the statistics you cited, they're for permanent residency ("green cards"), not immigrant visas. Due to a few strange quirks of the US immigration system, the time it takes from visa to residency increases based on how many other immigrants came from the same country as you. A lot of these people are going to be Mexicans who have been legally residing in the country on one or more visas for the last 10-20 years. I can't seem to find the visa data in this PDF, and the green card numbers are visa datum with time lag, so I'll continue nitpicking them. Almost half of the green cards granted are for immediate family members, and another 166k are other family sponsorships. The other immigration categories (e.g. refugees, diversity visa holders[0], etc) are less than a quarter of the total green card pool. In terms of finding immigrants who are a net positive to society, family sponsorship is arguably a better basis for immigration than employment. There are a lot of employers who game the immigration system[1] to skirt around America's labor laws. Employers don't care about the people they bring in as long as they work for cheap and do what you tell them. So they're bringing people in with no support network beyond a company that deliberately wants to exploit them. [0] For the same reason why America makes Mexicans wait 20 years to get their green card, people from countries underrepresented in the green card pool can apply for a special diversity visa that right-wingers love to complain about despite the fact that it makes the immigrant pool less Mexican [1] Specifically the H-1B visa program. Also, just to put all my cards on the table: my views on immigration are extremely libertarian. Immigration is one of the most dehumanizingly bureaucratic nonsense processes one can go through with a government. The reason why companies are able to abuse H-1B is because you can't switch jobs outside of other potential H-1B sponsors who are going to expect the same out of you. It's a literal immigrant underclass!
ajmurmann 3y ago
Urbanized communities have let birthrates and so do highly educated ones. The (perceived?) opportunity cost of having a kid is much higher for educated professionals. This is the real reason why we are seeing population decline in the most developed countries.
amarant 3y ago
Because in Japan, you get arrested for modifying save files, so no-one wants to live there
- qwerty456127 3y ago
  Nice joke LOL :-) I hope just hope nobody feels offended.
satvikpendem 3y ago
It has nothing to do with housing not being affordable and everything to do with many people simply not wanting to have children. Ask Scandinavia and/or Nigeria if you want to see such a dichotomy.
- Izkata 3y ago
  For a long time, too: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/ The drop in births began ~40 years ago, it's only now becoming visible in the total population count.
  - satvikpendem 3y ago
    Indeed. Lots of people bring in external factors for people not having kids but don't understand that the poorest of the population have many more kids than the richer portions. One may rule that to religions but still others rule it to the simple fact that kids do not bring joy to the modern world, as cruel as that may sound to many.
- qwerty456127 3y ago
  Imagine a perfect world where having children is not associated with adding any problems (which could require more time, money and patience) to care about in your life - everything is covered: you get a great new 10-room apartment in the best city center for free, free pass to the best school for your Children, great free babysitters, an awesome free doctor comes whenever the kid falls ill, 4-hour workday to spend time with your kids, a couple extra weeks of paid leave to travel alone together with you spouse and rest from parenting etc. How probable it is you still don't want to have children?
  - satvikpendem 3y ago
    Very probable. Again, ask rich nations why they don't have kids while poor nations do at an exponential scale. At the end of the day, and people don't want to accept this, people simply don't want to have kids.
somenameforme 3y ago
There's a lot of hypotheses, but most seem to fail across one domain or another. The only I've seen consistently explains collapsing fertility across all contexts is consumerism. The modern world has introduced a completely ridiculous level of advertising everywhere. And this has really driven a boom in consumerism everywhere. What room is there for family in a world where making and consuming Product is gradually becoming the entire point in life? Children greatly constrain your time meaning less time for making Product, and also are a substantial cost themselves (above and beyond the reduction in time) meaning less ability to consume Product. So for instance this cleanly explains the Western income to fertility curve. In particular people who are poor have far more children than those who are middle to upper income, but then once you reach the ultra wealthy then we're back to having lots of children again. Both the top in bottom are unable to participate in the Product chasing game for different reasons. The bottom are unable to afford to do so, while the top have so much money than no carrot is ever out of their reach, so they must look elsewhere for meaning and purpose. It also explains the religion to fertility correlation. Religion not only provides a meaning and purpose in lieu of the almighty Product, but of course itself also tends to focus heavily on fertility and family. It also explains why nearly all modern correlations with regards to fertility simply completely fail when you look at the past where people of all income levels, education, and religious values were having lots of children. It's because consumerism, and its driving force of never-ending advertisement, had yet to really take much of any grip on the world.

kmeisthax 3y ago

Sexism. Japanese women have to pick between their career and having a family, so they pick the former. There's a lot of old men running Japan that won't hire married women or expect women who get married to leave the workforce. Korea, which has even worse demographic problems than Japan, also has significantly worse sexism in ways I'd have to link you to a three-part Moon Channel YouTube video essay to even scratch the surface of. Immigration is also a factor: getting permanent residency in Japan is a pain in the ass. America doesn't even notice its declining birth rate because everyone wants to move here and we let them in.

satvikpendem 3y ago
I am convinced that even if you solve the sexism problem, people will still not have children. See Denmark for example.
soraminazuki 3y ago
Employment discrimination has been illegal in Japan for decades now, well before many of us were even born. Expecting women to leave the workforce is definitely not popular opinion either, unless you're talking about people who retired of age long ago.
- qwerty456127 3y ago
  Outlawing a common norm is not enough (often to the point of futile) to actually get rid of it. You have to somehow change the actual common view and this, more probably than not, requires a lot of time to pass. The easiest path is to use popular culture to teach the teens something is uncool (or contrary) so they adhere to this value once their generation grows up and gets in charge. AFAIK this is how modern Japanese were taught to enjoy coffee - coffee candies strategically came first. Another arguably problematic thing I think I know about Japan (I hope I'm wrong in this as well) is their work culture strongly discourages switching jobs. Their salary is a pure function of how long did they work in the same company, it drops to the junior level once they switch (no matter how skilled they are) and nobody wants to hire old people because it's almost impossible to fire them (as well as anybody else) once hired even if they don't do the actual job nearly well enough to make sense. Am I wrong?
  - soraminazuki 3y ago
    I'd say the common view has changed decades ago. Public opinion regarding equal employment is pretty much the same in Japan and the US. > Another arguably problematic thing I think I know about Japan (I hope I'm wrong in this as well) is their work culture strongly discourages switching jobs. It's not uncommon to see people switch jobs. I think public perception on that topic has changed too in the past few decades. But one thing worth noting is that as you mentioned, Japanese workers have stronger legal protections compared to the US. It's more difficult to fire someone in Japan, so people are incentivized to keep their current jobs. > Their salary is a pure function of how long did they work in the same company I believe this fell out of favor, but not in a good way. The move away from seniority-based wage is often used as euphemism for pay cuts. Another case of corporations not being your friends thing. > nobody wants to hire old people because it's almost impossible to fire them This unfortunately is a problem, at least for jobs with decent pay I think? Unless you're rich, of course.
qwerty456127 3y ago
> Sexism. Japanese women have to pick between their career and having a family, so they pick the former. The same is often said about western countries but by contrary attributed to non-sexism. Conservatives love to say women don't have children because they easily choose careers as the society is not sexist enough anymore. > There's a lot of old men running Japan that won't hire married women Wow. This breaks anothse stereotype in me. I would expect he majority of old Japanese men to be super-wise, kind and caring in a good way, also simultaneously careless in a god (zen) way so they would do what is good and give up what is not even if a tradition demands that. > Immigration is also a factor: getting permanent residency in Japan is a pain in the ass. Why wouldn't they gradually enable flow of immigration from ethnically close nations? E.g. many people from Mongolia or Yakutia (a major Asian state within Russia) would probably love to immigrate to Japan and be willing to adhere to Japanese culture.
- soraminazuki 3y ago
  > I would expect he majority of old Japanese men to be super-wise ... I'd argue that nationality says the least about a person. Some people are nice and some are painful to deal with. It's the same everywhere. > Why wouldn't they gradually enable flow of immigration from ethnically close nations? Conservative government and lack of competent liberal opposition.
  - qwerty456127 3y ago
    > I'd argue that nationality says the least about a person. Absolutely sure. Nationality does not define the person. But the culture of the society a person gets raised in influences them a lot. Hence the stereotype there are just two major kinds of people in Japan: kawaii and zen :-))
- numpad0 3y ago
  > E.g. many people from Mongolia or Yakutia (a major Asian state within Russia) Wow, yeah, racism wise Japan and Mongolia are closer than Korea or China, sure, but the split had estimated to have happened at least 40k years ago, that's couple times older than the oldest known human writings. It's just DNAs and some highly academic phonological elements that these regions share.
somenameforme 3y ago
America doesn't notice its declining birth rate because it's relatively recent. Japan's birth rate collapsed about 40 years ago. [1] By contrast the US' decline is only trending towards dangerous levels quite recently. The graph in the link includes both the US and Japan and is quite enlightening! Fertility is an extremely lagging indicator, which is why places like Japan (and soon South Korea) are essentially mirrors into the future that awaits the West at large as well, if things don't change. Immigration isn't a solution. Japan is losing about 0.5% of their population per year - including immigration, and that rate is accelerating. It's unclear where their equilibrium point will be, other than substantially worse than that. In the US at even "just" a 1% annual decline, you'd need 3.3 million migrants per year, forever, to maintain population levels. And you don't want random uneducated individuals who don't even speak the language, or you risk destroying the very thing that motivates people to want to migrate. You want skilled, educated, English speaking individuals who are capable of and motivated to work. For some contrast in 2022 we admitted a total of about a million people, and only 270,284 of them were for employment. [2] [1] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?contextual=default&locations=JP-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?contextu... [2] - https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/2023_0818_plcy_yearbook_immigration_statistics_fy2022.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/2023_0818_pl... (page 18)
- kmeisthax 3y ago
  I didn't suggest immigration was the solution. It's a stopgap, and an accidental one, but one that happens to be working out in America's favor right now. If we had an immigration system like Japan's then we'd have demographic decline closer to Japan's than our own. As for the statistics you cited, they're for permanent residency ("green cards"), not immigrant visas. Due to a few strange quirks of the US immigration system, the time it takes from visa to residency increases based on how many other immigrants came from the same country as you. A lot of these people are going to be Mexicans who have been legally residing in the country on one or more visas for the last 10-20 years. I can't seem to find the visa data in this PDF, and the green card numbers are visa datum with time lag, so I'll continue nitpicking them. Almost half of the green cards granted are for immediate family members, and another 166k are other family sponsorships. The other immigration categories (e.g. refugees, diversity visa holders[0], etc) are less than a quarter of the total green card pool. In terms of finding immigrants who are a net positive to society, family sponsorship is arguably a better basis for immigration than employment. There are a lot of employers who game the immigration system[1] to skirt around America's labor laws. Employers don't care about the people they bring in as long as they work for cheap and do what you tell them. So they're bringing people in with no support network beyond a company that deliberately wants to exploit them. [0] For the same reason why America makes Mexicans wait 20 years to get their green card, people from countries underrepresented in the green card pool can apply for a special diversity visa that right-wingers love to complain about despite the fact that it makes the immigrant pool less Mexican [1] Specifically the H-1B visa program. Also, just to put all my cards on the table: my views on immigration are extremely libertarian. Immigration is one of the most dehumanizingly bureaucratic nonsense processes one can go through with a government. The reason why companies are able to abuse H-1B is because you can't switch jobs outside of other potential H-1B sponsors who are going to expect the same out of you. It's a literal immigrant underclass!

ajmurmann 3y ago

Urbanized communities have let birthrates and so do highly educated ones. The (perceived?) opportunity cost of having a kid is much higher for educated professionals. This is the real reason why we are seeing population decline in the most developed countries.

amarant 3y ago

Because in Japan, you get arrested for modifying save files, so no-one wants to live there

qwerty456127 3y ago
Nice joke LOL :-) I hope just hope nobody feels offended.

satvikpendem 3y ago

It has nothing to do with housing not being affordable and everything to do with many people simply not wanting to have children. Ask Scandinavia and/or Nigeria if you want to see such a dichotomy.

Izkata 3y ago
For a long time, too: https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/ The drop in births began ~40 years ago, it's only now becoming visible in the total population count.
- satvikpendem 3y ago
  Indeed. Lots of people bring in external factors for people not having kids but don't understand that the poorest of the population have many more kids than the richer portions. One may rule that to religions but still others rule it to the simple fact that kids do not bring joy to the modern world, as cruel as that may sound to many.
qwerty456127 3y ago
Imagine a perfect world where having children is not associated with adding any problems (which could require more time, money and patience) to care about in your life - everything is covered: you get a great new 10-room apartment in the best city center for free, free pass to the best school for your Children, great free babysitters, an awesome free doctor comes whenever the kid falls ill, 4-hour workday to spend time with your kids, a couple extra weeks of paid leave to travel alone together with you spouse and rest from parenting etc. How probable it is you still don't want to have children?
- satvikpendem 3y ago
  Very probable. Again, ask rich nations why they don't have kids while poor nations do at an exponential scale. At the end of the day, and people don't want to accept this, people simply don't want to have kids.

somenameforme 3y ago

There's a lot of hypotheses, but most seem to fail across one domain or another. The only I've seen consistently explains collapsing fertility across all contexts is consumerism. The modern world has introduced a completely ridiculous level of advertising everywhere. And this has really driven a boom in consumerism everywhere. What room is there for family in a world where making and consuming Product is gradually becoming the entire point in life? Children greatly constrain your time meaning less time for making Product, and also are a substantial cost themselves (above and beyond the reduction in time) meaning less ability to consume Product. So for instance this cleanly explains the Western income to fertility curve. In particular people who are poor have far more children than those who are middle to upper income, but then once you reach the ultra wealthy then we're back to having lots of children again. Both the top in bottom are unable to participate in the Product chasing game for different reasons. The bottom are unable to afford to do so, while the top have so much money than no carrot is ever out of their reach, so they must look elsewhere for meaning and purpose. It also explains the religion to fertility correlation. Religion not only provides a meaning and purpose in lieu of the almighty Product, but of course itself also tends to focus heavily on fertility and family. It also explains why nearly all modern correlations with regards to fertility simply completely fail when you look at the past where people of all income levels, education, and religious values were having lots of children. It's because consumerism, and its driving force of never-ending advertisement, had yet to really take much of any grip on the world.