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They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will l
by candiodari 3y ago
They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will literally kill them if they're not the best at everything, and of course they will fuck up some bits. So they will outlaw access to foreign technology, to hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state".
Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reality, but they can certainly fix the appearance of reality and make the people judging THEM only observe a fixed reality.
Plus this is something that "infects" everything. If there is ONE western thing the CCP wants to hide from Chinese, they'll have to cut access to a LOT of western products just to hide a few small things they really don't want to get out (better ballpoint pens in the west perhaps?). It's funny how this starts too. Like in the USSR, in China when it started it was more-or-less positive. They outlawed better products and celebrated chinese industry catching up. Needless to say, they're a government. The focus has shifted to just outlawing better products, and now they're really more often destroying people who help chinese industry catch up, because ... that does the absolute #1 forbidden thing: it gives the wrong politicians a leg up over others. It gives, to be exact, random politicians a leg up over others ... which of course quickly gets a wrong one.
Hopefully it'll only mean Chinese people never see western products, unless specific products the party wants them to use. Hopefully we'll retain access to Chinese goods.
Though of course, it'll rapidly become INCREDIBLY rewarding for anyone with a great idea to run to the west. In the west, you'll get a great job at the very least. Idea great enough? You get to be rich. You stay in China with a great idea? You get killed ...
- woodada 3y ago[flagged]
- cjbgkagh 3y agoThat is what the West tells itself and God I wish that was true.
- thewestisgod 3y ago[flagged]
- Havoc 3y agoI don't quite share your pessimism. Two choice seem preferable over 1 choice even if the one is subject to state interference. (and lets be real here US side interferes a lot too - see sanctions & restrictions). >hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state". You assume there will be something to be embarassed about. Given current trajectory I'm more concerned about the opposite. Western side getting left in the dust in say a decade.
- gred 3y agoIt seems strange to label Intel + AMD + Qualcomm + ARM + TI + NVIDIA + Samsung + Fujitsu + etc as "1 choice". Even on the Chinese side I assume it's more than just SMIC (or whatever the big one is over there).
- Havoc 3y agoI meant in the context of ecosystems. A bit like Android vs iPhone even if there are lots of different android devices. In the long run I expect the two will diverge - whether its by standards, architecture or compatibility.
- blackoil 3y agoSpoken like someone with no clue about China apart from social media. Talk to any Chinese entrepreneur and you'll know the competition is much more strong and ruthless than in West. Even for capital intensive high tech industries like EV and mobile you'll find more companies than rest of world put together.
- candiodari 2y agoWell, I've talked to two important Chinese officials (important enough to be in the "Hall of the People", but nobody you would know), and both were of this opinion. The CCP tolerates ZERO mistakes from it's officials. Merely not making any mistakes is not enough, it's just table stakes. Like passing the exam.