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China is in a weird place that is hard to predict. They have some troubling economic and demographic problems as you said, but also have built up strong tech an

China is in a weird place that is hard to predict. They have some troubling economic and demographic problems as you said, but also have built up strong tech and manufacturing capabilities. We could easily see China continue to grow in power, even if the middle class continues to be poor.

hylaride 3y ago
China also has large swaths of it's population still in a lower income bracket, especially the further you get from the coasts (though the demographics there are not much better). It's going to be very interesting to see what happens over the next few decades (and by interesting I hope in not a terrible way). One of the theories of China's recent, intense sabre rattling is that demographically they'll be in no position to militarily take Taiwan in 20 years. So it's now/soon or never.
- riffic 3y ago
  *its population
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  China will be able to easily field ten million soldiers in 20 years. Their military keeps strenghtening. Their demography woes will cause economic and social problems first, not military ones. I believe this supposed rush to take Taiwan is more about Xi's personal ambitions rather than strategic pressure.
floxy 3y ago
Seems like they are doing OK on the percentage of people who own their homes front: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_owne...
- zeroCalories 3y ago
  Home ownership is a meme. Congratulations, you're sitting next to other prosperous countries like Cuba.
scrubs 3y ago
There was a recent bloomberg article titled (from memory): the fed has a problem. There are two US economies but only one rate. The 95 v 5% split in the US with the middle class worse and worse is a problem. It'll be the same for China except that Chinese politicians are way more attuned to social cohesion compared to the west.

hylaride 3y ago

China also has large swaths of it's population still in a lower income bracket, especially the further you get from the coasts (though the demographics there are not much better). It's going to be very interesting to see what happens over the next few decades (and by interesting I hope in not a terrible way). One of the theories of China's recent, intense sabre rattling is that demographically they'll be in no position to militarily take Taiwan in 20 years. So it's now/soon or never.

riffic 3y ago
*its population
The_Colonel 3y ago
China will be able to easily field ten million soldiers in 20 years. Their military keeps strenghtening. Their demography woes will cause economic and social problems first, not military ones. I believe this supposed rush to take Taiwan is more about Xi's personal ambitions rather than strategic pressure.

floxy 3y ago

Seems like they are doing OK on the percentage of people who own their homes front: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_owne...

zeroCalories 3y ago
Home ownership is a meme. Congratulations, you're sitting next to other prosperous countries like Cuba.

scrubs 3y ago

There was a recent bloomberg article titled (from memory): the fed has a problem. There are two US economies but only one rate. The 95 v 5% split in the US with the middle class worse and worse is a problem. It'll be the same for China except that Chinese politicians are way more attuned to social cohesion compared to the west.