4 ms·

This is a good clarification. On the topic of the overall bubble, I think the main problem is that the demands of the marketplace are not effectively filtered

by Humjob 14y ago

This is a good clarification. On the topic of the overall bubble, I think the main problem is that the demands of the marketplace are not effectively filtered into pressure to select certain majors. Thus you have the current absurd situation where there are as many STEM students as there were 30 years ago, but the number of liberal arts majors has skyrocketed. Not everyone can work in publishing and theater. Also, it's a shame how 60 Minutes, a main stream cultural bellwether if there ever was one, eviscerates Thiel. He's one of the few practical visionaries around, and his thesis that the American cultural status quo is indeterminately (rather than determinately) optimistic about the future is bolstered by the treatment they give him.

eli_gottlieb 14y ago
The real tricky question is: do we even have as much demand for STEM graduates as 30 years ago? We're in a general labor glut. There's not as much demand for anyone anymore.
larrys 14y ago
"eviscerates Thiel" I don't think they did a good enough job. They didn't call him out when he gave as examples 3 total outliers, Gates, Jobs and Zuckerberg. Ditto for saying college costs $250,000 for 4 years. Public colleges aren't anywhere near that cost. Harvard "full list" is 62,950 and nobody pays that unless they are from a wealthy family. Syracuse which I would think is typical of private colleges would be about 200k for 4 years. Many public schools are easily maybe 18k per year room and board for in state students. That is way less than "250k".
- zecho 14y ago
  I agree. The statement that plumbers make as much as doctors is insanely inaccurate. I think Thiel needs to find a new plumber, because he's clearly overpaying.
  - nickbarnwell 14y ago
    While I've not run the numbers, when you adjust for the costs and lost wages from: * 4 years of undergrad * 4 years of medical school * 3+ years of residency And the potential upside for a plumber who starts his own business or perhaps branches out into general contracting, it would not surprise me if total lifetime wages adjusted for education expenses were fairly close.
    - runako 14y ago
      This is a commonly made false comparison: employed physician vs. self-employed plumber. You've combined two jobs (plumber + small business manager), then assumed that the plumber is better than competent at both. This will not compare favorably at the margin if you compare e.g. to a surgeon who opens a plastic surgery practice, or uses his surgical skill to found Intuitive Surgical. Either compare averages or admit that there's no point comparing when you already know the outcome you want.
      - nickbarnwell 14y ago
        For what it's worth, I agree it's a poor comparison. I posted as much to ponder how it might have arisen during the interview as to address the GP's statement "that plumbers make as much as doctors is insanely inaccurate"
  - larrys 14y ago
    Yes. Shows what a bubble he lives in. That statement really bothered me (was just discussing that last night with my wife when I replayed the story) and I think it obviously showed Thiel's lack of preparedness for the interview. Imagine going on 60 Minutes and not being prepared. It shows the halo he has around him from talking to people who rarely challenge him. Reminds me of shit I can get away with at a family gathering that would never fly on HN! Anyway the job (and prestige) of a doctor is vastly different than the "average" plumber or tradesman and comes with a whole host of psychic benefits. And the skills (mechanical and being grimy all day) are much different for plumber than Physician.
- lukethomas 14y ago
  As someone who goes to a state school, sometimes I feel like being in college is detrimental to my learning. I'm surrounded by students who don't care, and it can be tough to overcome "the crowd." Looking back, I'm not sure if it was a good idea to save money and go to state school, as opposed to going to an expensive school with motivated students. I guess time will tell...
  - zecho 14y ago
    Expensive schools don't necessarily have motivated students, especially not at the undergrad level. I've met just as many morons from the Ivy Leagues as I've met from state schools (and brilliant people, too). Cost has little to do with desire to learn or focus for an 18-year-old to twenty something.

by Humjob 14y ago

eli_gottlieb 14y ago

The real tricky question is: do we even have as much demand for STEM graduates as 30 years ago? We're in a general labor glut. There's not as much demand for anyone anymore.

larrys 14y ago

"eviscerates Thiel" I don't think they did a good enough job. They didn't call him out when he gave as examples 3 total outliers, Gates, Jobs and Zuckerberg. Ditto for saying college costs $250,000 for 4 years. Public colleges aren't anywhere near that cost. Harvard "full list" is 62,950 and nobody pays that unless they are from a wealthy family. Syracuse which I would think is typical of private colleges would be about 200k for 4 years. Many public schools are easily maybe 18k per year room and board for in state students. That is way less than "250k".

zecho 14y ago
I agree. The statement that plumbers make as much as doctors is insanely inaccurate. I think Thiel needs to find a new plumber, because he's clearly overpaying.
- nickbarnwell 14y ago
  While I've not run the numbers, when you adjust for the costs and lost wages from: * 4 years of undergrad * 4 years of medical school * 3+ years of residency And the potential upside for a plumber who starts his own business or perhaps branches out into general contracting, it would not surprise me if total lifetime wages adjusted for education expenses were fairly close.
  - runako 14y ago
    This is a commonly made false comparison: employed physician vs. self-employed plumber. You've combined two jobs (plumber + small business manager), then assumed that the plumber is better than competent at both. This will not compare favorably at the margin if you compare e.g. to a surgeon who opens a plastic surgery practice, or uses his surgical skill to found Intuitive Surgical. Either compare averages or admit that there's no point comparing when you already know the outcome you want.
    - nickbarnwell 14y ago
      For what it's worth, I agree it's a poor comparison. I posted as much to ponder how it might have arisen during the interview as to address the GP's statement "that plumbers make as much as doctors is insanely inaccurate"
- larrys 14y ago
  Yes. Shows what a bubble he lives in. That statement really bothered me (was just discussing that last night with my wife when I replayed the story) and I think it obviously showed Thiel's lack of preparedness for the interview. Imagine going on 60 Minutes and not being prepared. It shows the halo he has around him from talking to people who rarely challenge him. Reminds me of shit I can get away with at a family gathering that would never fly on HN! Anyway the job (and prestige) of a doctor is vastly different than the "average" plumber or tradesman and comes with a whole host of psychic benefits. And the skills (mechanical and being grimy all day) are much different for plumber than Physician.
lukethomas 14y ago
As someone who goes to a state school, sometimes I feel like being in college is detrimental to my learning. I'm surrounded by students who don't care, and it can be tough to overcome "the crowd." Looking back, I'm not sure if it was a good idea to save money and go to state school, as opposed to going to an expensive school with motivated students. I guess time will tell...
- zecho 14y ago
  Expensive schools don't necessarily have motivated students, especially not at the undergrad level. I've met just as many morons from the Ivy Leagues as I've met from state schools (and brilliant people, too). Cost has little to do with desire to learn or focus for an 18-year-old to twenty something.