4 ms·
$10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025
- jjcon 2y agoTo be fair, I've never met a human as knowledgeable as ChatGPT before but I've simultaneously never met a human as dumb as ChatGPT before.
- TillE 2y agoGenerously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it.
- threeseed 2y agoTo be more cynical. He tends to do it whenever there is bad news in other parts of his business.
- ilrwbwrkhv 2y agoRobotaxi, stock goes boom.
- Calvin02 2y ago> When he says stuff like this he just means he's excited about it. That's an overly charitable interpretation of what he's doing. The pattern that I've observed is: 1) he's a narcissist who always wants to be in the news and/or 2) he's trying to distract from something. He can't stand it when the press moves on from him. His MO is to wait for a week or two and then throw out something outlandish to suck up the media oxygen. He and Trump are very similar people.
- kiba 2y agoHaving read the biography, he's a man who likes and is attracted to drama, regardless how much it burns him.
- pennybanks 2y agoima guess most billionaires are narcissists. and this media oxygen stuff i mean it works right. to do able to get attention of the press and that many people is a only reserved for a very small amount of people on this earth.
- jrflowers 2y agoI too would like to get paid for having to read whatever stuff the Twitter guy posts online that somehow ends up being displayed as news
- esafak 2y agoThe bar is this: "...whatever smart intellectual labor any human working on their own, even the best human in a given domain, can do will be beaten by Al by end of 2025. That is what I am challenging." I don't see ML models doing superhuman science in a year and half so I would take that bet. They can't even write better prose than the best humans, and language models are their strong suit.
- aftbit 2y agoYeah but what about by 2035? What's the saying? Something like "people overestimate how much will change in 5 years but underestimate how much will change in 10"
- morninglight 2y agoThere will never be a human-superior AGI until we agree on what that means. For at least 80 years that has changed weekly and continues to do so. .