The VC investors don't need a startup that accurately predicts its odds, because most startups fail. So what they need are starry-eyed kids who have a distorted

The VC investors don't need a startup that accurately predicts its odds, because most startups fail. So what they need are starry-eyed kids who have a distorted view of their chances of success, and in the small chance that they actually succeed beyond anyone else's wildest dreams (but within expectation of the distorted perspective -- which is the only way you can continue executing without being overwhelmed), the VC reaps the profits.