5 ms·

The market need for cheaper solar cells seems to have evaporated, since the vast majority of the cost of solar projects these days is always in labour/land/wiri

The market need for cheaper solar cells seems to have evaporated, since the vast majority of the cost of solar projects these days is always in labour/land/wiring/inverters/grid connection/maintenance contracts. That means saving a bit of money on the panels in return for lower efficiency is never a good deal.

hackerlight 3y ago
Some are trying to combine perovskite with silicon solar cells because they specialize at capturing different wavelengths. So-called tandem solar cells.
- selimthegrim 3y ago
  I wonder what happened to singlet fission cells and other things trying to get around the SQ limit
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    Still being worked on. https://interestingengineering.com/energy/paderborns-new-solar-cell-design-with-tetracene-boosts-efficiency https://interestingengineering.com/energy/paderborns-new-sol...
    - selimthegrim 3y ago
      Thanks for the link - I used to be peripherally involved in this field and last I heard MIT (Baldo et al.) had resorted to some hafnium oxynitride layer, which is really not gonna drive costs down at all.
ElevenLathe 3y ago
If the materials are cheap enough, we might be able to build them into other stuff that was going to use labor anyway (shingles, asphalt, siding, etc). No idea what the economics of this look like though, and electricians (a pretty expensive form of labor) will need to be involved no matter what, but at least theoretically cheaper cells can also deal with labor costs.
- hackerlight 3y ago
  Like solar fences: https://next2sun.com/en/solar-fence/ https://next2sun.com/en/solar-fence/
  - KeplerBoy 3y ago
    Solar panels are already cheaper than wood, which is amazing.
    - sandworm101 3y ago
      Where are PV panels cheaper than wood? A 4x8 sheet of plywood runs about 40$ in north America, and roughly double that in Europe. I don't see PV panels anywhere near that price.
      - abathur 3y ago
        I can't recall ever seeing a plywood fence in North America.
        jandrese 3y ago
        You do see them from time to time in especially rough rural areas. I can remember one that was apparently painted from the "oops" paint section of the local hardware store surrounding a strip club next to a junkyard.
        abathur 3y ago
        Sure. I don't recall seeing one, but the near-inevitability of this is why I didn't assert they don't exist. Rarity speaks to how poorly suited the material is for building durable fences and the ~irrelevance of the cost of plywood in this subthread.
      - KeplerBoy 3y ago
        You don't want a plywood fence though. PV panels are cheaper than the decorative wood fences are made of. Wood fences are easily 100€/m around here.
cogman10 3y ago
It's even worse, perovskite degrades faster than silicon cells so you are getting lower efficiency short life cells. Tons of money is being invested in trying to fix the lifespan problem.
c2h5oh 3y ago
Ground/roof solar is still >60% panels around here
mensetmanusman 3y ago
Labor costs are less when the weight is 10x less.
- tlb 3y ago
  A little, but the design of the support structure is dominated by wind loads. Depending on where you are, it can need to survive wind gusts of 90 - 160 mph. At the low end, 90 mph corresponds to 1000 N / m^2, which is more than the weight of any kind of solar panel.
Workaccount2 3y ago
I've been waiting for consumer level panels to get cheaper forever. You'd think by now that you could get a 200W panel for $50. But they have been the same $200 for what seems like a decade now (I suppose they didn't go up with inflation, but still)
- whitehexagon 3y ago
  I just put another 5x550W panels up 2 months ago, and they are now 101eur per panel including tax! 30e less than I just paid. wish I had space for more!
- jakewins 3y ago
  You can pull up at MO Wind and Solar off of MO 60 and grab 600W panels for $195/ea today: https://windandsolar.com/risen-595-watt-mono-solar-panel-bifacial/ https://windandsolar.com/risen-595-watt-mono-solar-panel-bif... That's ballpark where you say, about $65/200W. They also have remanufactured panels, like the 410W trina ones, even cheaper. Good outfit, nice and helpful, bought several lots of panels off of them.
- ravedave5 3y ago
  It seems like the size & cost of the panel has stayed the same and the power output has gone up.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- daemonologist 3y ago
  It's frustrating. Panels around $0.25/W exist, but it's really difficult to get your hands on them in small quantities as an individual. You can either string together a bunch of tiny eBay specials or drive halfway across the country to find a distributor of the panel you want who's willing to sell to consumers.
- RisingFusion 3y ago
  In Germany, 405 Watt panels new can be had for 65 euros. The law allows up to 800W to be connected to homes with relatively little bureaucracy, as a balcony solar power plant which renters can install without modifying the building. This seems to have pushed the price down, so there are many 800W kits including panels, an inverter and cables available for under 400 euros.
vinay_ys 3y ago
Cost of labor might be significant in some countries, but in a lot of countries, cost of materials is still the significant cost barrier to installation of solar. If the cost of materials were to come down significantly, even if it is at the expense of some efficiency, and also make the installation much more flexible, then definitely more installation will happen. Capital invested will be recovered in a shorter duration making the investment a lot less risky. This makes lending programs much more accessible, making the whole thing a more self-reinforcing cycle.
bilsbie 3y ago
True but the cost of labor goes down if they get cheap enough. For example: buy panels so cheap you just leave them on the ground. If they get damaged who cares. Some people are already using them as material for fences. Not a great angle, they’re cheap who cares.
cmrdporcupine 3y ago
It feels like the problem here is less about the solar industry and more about the construction and skilled trades generally. Everything involving an electrician / electrical contractor has gone way up in the last 10-15 years, along with other things. So whatever savings are being saved on materials are just being eaten up by rising labour costs. That and government incentive programs for home energy efficiency seems to have just inflated prices and stimulated demand to make the installation costs worse. Quotes I've gotten on heat pumps for example have been ridiculous, and solar much the same. Hate to say it, but a recession might be what "fixes" this. Not that I want to deprive trades people of a good livelihood, but it feels like the end consumer is getting screwed right now.
akamaka 3y ago
Perovskite solar cells are the best candidate for solving the problem that you pointed out. The best perovskite/silicon tandem cells in the laboratory have 33% efficiency, and the theoretical limit for this type of cell is 43%.
- MobiusHorizons 3y ago
  Do you know if there is any (even theoretical) work to solve the lifetime issue? Perovskites degrade in sunlight (order of months) making it seem unlikely they would ever be useful outside the lab.
photonbeam 3y ago
The are plenty of places with really low labor costs that would love cheaper panels
jjk166 3y ago
> That means saving a bit of money on the panels in return for lower efficiency is never a good deal. This does not at all logically follow from your proceeding statement. Cheaper solar panels mean they can be used in different ways with different labour/land/wiring/inverters/grid connection/maintenance requirements.
chrisbrandow 3y ago
if the substrate really can remain even a little bit flexible however, this opens up entirely new deployment opportunities.
fy20 3y ago
(In the US) In my part of EU the cost of getting 10kW of solar installed has gone from around €7000 in 2021 to €2000 or even less today. That is after government incentives, but the incentives have not changed during that time - it's a fixed amount per kW. The price reduction is due to the cost of panels and equipment going down.

hackerlight 3y ago

Some are trying to combine perovskite with silicon solar cells because they specialize at capturing different wavelengths. So-called tandem solar cells.

selimthegrim 3y ago
I wonder what happened to singlet fission cells and other things trying to get around the SQ limit
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Still being worked on. https://interestingengineering.com/energy/paderborns-new-solar-cell-design-with-tetracene-boosts-efficiency https://interestingengineering.com/energy/paderborns-new-sol...
  - selimthegrim 3y ago
    Thanks for the link - I used to be peripherally involved in this field and last I heard MIT (Baldo et al.) had resorted to some hafnium oxynitride layer, which is really not gonna drive costs down at all.

ElevenLathe 3y ago

If the materials are cheap enough, we might be able to build them into other stuff that was going to use labor anyway (shingles, asphalt, siding, etc). No idea what the economics of this look like though, and electricians (a pretty expensive form of labor) will need to be involved no matter what, but at least theoretically cheaper cells can also deal with labor costs.

hackerlight 3y ago
Like solar fences: https://next2sun.com/en/solar-fence/ https://next2sun.com/en/solar-fence/
- KeplerBoy 3y ago
  Solar panels are already cheaper than wood, which is amazing.
  - sandworm101 3y ago
    Where are PV panels cheaper than wood? A 4x8 sheet of plywood runs about 40$ in north America, and roughly double that in Europe. I don't see PV panels anywhere near that price.
    - abathur 3y ago
      I can't recall ever seeing a plywood fence in North America.
      - jandrese 3y ago
        You do see them from time to time in especially rough rural areas. I can remember one that was apparently painted from the "oops" paint section of the local hardware store surrounding a strip club next to a junkyard.
        abathur 3y ago
        Sure. I don't recall seeing one, but the near-inevitability of this is why I didn't assert they don't exist. Rarity speaks to how poorly suited the material is for building durable fences and the ~irrelevance of the cost of plywood in this subthread.
    - KeplerBoy 3y ago
      You don't want a plywood fence though. PV panels are cheaper than the decorative wood fences are made of. Wood fences are easily 100€/m around here.

cogman10 3y ago

It's even worse, perovskite degrades faster than silicon cells so you are getting lower efficiency short life cells. Tons of money is being invested in trying to fix the lifespan problem.

c2h5oh 3y ago

Ground/roof solar is still >60% panels around here

mensetmanusman 3y ago

Labor costs are less when the weight is 10x less.

tlb 3y ago
A little, but the design of the support structure is dominated by wind loads. Depending on where you are, it can need to survive wind gusts of 90 - 160 mph. At the low end, 90 mph corresponds to 1000 N / m^2, which is more than the weight of any kind of solar panel.

Workaccount2 3y ago

I've been waiting for consumer level panels to get cheaper forever. You'd think by now that you could get a 200W panel for $50. But they have been the same $200 for what seems like a decade now (I suppose they didn't go up with inflation, but still)

whitehexagon 3y ago
I just put another 5x550W panels up 2 months ago, and they are now 101eur per panel including tax! 30e less than I just paid. wish I had space for more!
jakewins 3y ago
You can pull up at MO Wind and Solar off of MO 60 and grab 600W panels for $195/ea today: https://windandsolar.com/risen-595-watt-mono-solar-panel-bifacial/ https://windandsolar.com/risen-595-watt-mono-solar-panel-bif... That's ballpark where you say, about $65/200W. They also have remanufactured panels, like the 410W trina ones, even cheaper. Good outfit, nice and helpful, bought several lots of panels off of them.
ravedave5 3y ago
It seems like the size & cost of the panel has stayed the same and the power output has gone up.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
daemonologist 3y ago
It's frustrating. Panels around $0.25/W exist, but it's really difficult to get your hands on them in small quantities as an individual. You can either string together a bunch of tiny eBay specials or drive halfway across the country to find a distributor of the panel you want who's willing to sell to consumers.
RisingFusion 3y ago
In Germany, 405 Watt panels new can be had for 65 euros. The law allows up to 800W to be connected to homes with relatively little bureaucracy, as a balcony solar power plant which renters can install without modifying the building. This seems to have pushed the price down, so there are many 800W kits including panels, an inverter and cables available for under 400 euros.

vinay_ys 3y ago

Cost of labor might be significant in some countries, but in a lot of countries, cost of materials is still the significant cost barrier to installation of solar. If the cost of materials were to come down significantly, even if it is at the expense of some efficiency, and also make the installation much more flexible, then definitely more installation will happen. Capital invested will be recovered in a shorter duration making the investment a lot less risky. This makes lending programs much more accessible, making the whole thing a more self-reinforcing cycle.

bilsbie 3y ago

True but the cost of labor goes down if they get cheap enough. For example: buy panels so cheap you just leave them on the ground. If they get damaged who cares. Some people are already using them as material for fences. Not a great angle, they’re cheap who cares.

cmrdporcupine 3y ago

It feels like the problem here is less about the solar industry and more about the construction and skilled trades generally. Everything involving an electrician / electrical contractor has gone way up in the last 10-15 years, along with other things. So whatever savings are being saved on materials are just being eaten up by rising labour costs. That and government incentive programs for home energy efficiency seems to have just inflated prices and stimulated demand to make the installation costs worse. Quotes I've gotten on heat pumps for example have been ridiculous, and solar much the same. Hate to say it, but a recession might be what "fixes" this. Not that I want to deprive trades people of a good livelihood, but it feels like the end consumer is getting screwed right now.

akamaka 3y ago

Perovskite solar cells are the best candidate for solving the problem that you pointed out. The best perovskite/silicon tandem cells in the laboratory have 33% efficiency, and the theoretical limit for this type of cell is 43%.

MobiusHorizons 3y ago
Do you know if there is any (even theoretical) work to solve the lifetime issue? Perovskites degrade in sunlight (order of months) making it seem unlikely they would ever be useful outside the lab.

photonbeam 3y ago

The are plenty of places with really low labor costs that would love cheaper panels

jjk166 3y ago

> That means saving a bit of money on the panels in return for lower efficiency is never a good deal. This does not at all logically follow from your proceeding statement. Cheaper solar panels mean they can be used in different ways with different labour/land/wiring/inverters/grid connection/maintenance requirements.

chrisbrandow 3y ago

if the substrate really can remain even a little bit flexible however, this opens up entirely new deployment opportunities.

fy20 3y ago

(In the US) In my part of EU the cost of getting 10kW of solar installed has gone from around €7000 in 2021 to €2000 or even less today. That is after government incentives, but the incentives have not changed during that time - it's a fixed amount per kW. The price reduction is due to the cost of panels and equipment going down.