3 ms·

70 USD for 100 W seems pretty bad? Especially given the low efficiency.

f_devd 3y ago
I would expect the price to decrease over time given perovskite solar cells are currently not yet mass produced and still actively being researched.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Or, the degradation problems keep them from ever taking off. If they do, they may only do so as part of tandem cells with a silicon PV bottom layer.
aredox 3y ago
A quick look around gives me a current figure of ~1 USD/W in Australia (dunno if that evolved a lot in a short time with the current inflation and currency rates). Money quote: "The cost for [production] Seq[ence]. B is likely to be lower than 1 USD W−1, and Seq. C could be lower than 0.5 USD W−1. These represent a significant reduction to the cost estimate from previous works of around 1.5 USD W−147. This results from a similar or lower cost in $ m−2, and a higher recorded efficiency. However, the technology is still not able to compete with mass-produced silicon solar cells, for which module spot prices have been lower than 0.30 USD W−148. Despite this, opportunities may exist in niche markets that value the lightweight and flexible nature of these modules, as discussed in our previous work47. The next step for the technology would be exploring high-value PV markets at the predicted manufacturing costs while addressing the remaining high-cost components to sustainably advance the technology towards commercialisation. Supplementary Fig. 12, with about 5 USD m−2 module cost (excluding encapsulation), shows the potential for the further cost reduction by eliminating the remaining high-cost components."
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
hackerlight 3y ago
The cost model is based on high labor cost assumptions of $25-36 USD/hr. See page 14 below. I wonder how much lower China's industrial capacity could reduce the costs. https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-024-46016-1/MediaObjects/41467_2024_46016_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs414...

I would expect the price to decrease over time given perovskite solar cells are currently not yet mass produced and still actively being researched.

pfdietz 3y ago
Or, the degradation problems keep them from ever taking off. If they do, they may only do so as part of tandem cells with a silicon PV bottom layer.

aredox 3y ago

A quick look around gives me a current figure of ~1 USD/W in Australia (dunno if that evolved a lot in a short time with the current inflation and currency rates). Money quote: "The cost for [production] Seq[ence]. B is likely to be lower than 1 USD W−1, and Seq. C could be lower than 0.5 USD W−1. These represent a significant reduction to the cost estimate from previous works of around 1.5 USD W−147. This results from a similar or lower cost in $ m−2, and a higher recorded efficiency. However, the technology is still not able to compete with mass-produced silicon solar cells, for which module spot prices have been lower than 0.30 USD W−148. Despite this, opportunities may exist in niche markets that value the lightweight and flexible nature of these modules, as discussed in our previous work47. The next step for the technology would be exploring high-value PV markets at the predicted manufacturing costs while addressing the remaining high-cost components to sustainably advance the technology towards commercialisation. Supplementary Fig. 12, with about 5 USD m−2 module cost (excluding encapsulation), shows the potential for the further cost reduction by eliminating the remaining high-cost components."

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

hackerlight 3y ago

The cost model is based on high labor cost assumptions of $25-36 USD/hr. See page 14 below. I wonder how much lower China's industrial capacity could reduce the costs. https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-024-46016-1/MediaObjects/41467_2024_46016_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs414...