3 ms·

I'm a bit skeptical of the age grouping. 25-54 is a very wide range, and I would assume cities have more 25-year-olds, whereas the countryside will have more 54

I'm a bit skeptical of the age grouping. 25-54 is a very wide range, and I would assume cities have more 25-year-olds, whereas the countryside will have more 54-year-olds.

082349872349872 3y ago
I think that's part of the point: US agricultural policy since at least the 1970s has been "get big or get out", so you'd expect remaining rural populations to be more marginal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Butz#Secretary_of_Agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Butz#Secretary_of_Agricul... (It's possible to still have viable family farms in 2024, but it requires a willingness to have both (a) economic inefficiencies, and (b) legislative restrictions; although the Home of the Brave might be willing to implement a similar program, the Land of the Free is certainly not)
coldtea 3y ago
>I would assume cities have more 25-year-olds, whereas the countryside will have more 54-year-olds. Would that be true? For the same total population on each (say, 1M in cities vs 1M in the countryside) I'd expect the countryside to have higher birth rates and younger marrying couples, so younger demographics. Whereas cities have more career focused people, who marry later (if ever), have less kids, and have them at a greater age.
- inanutshellus 3y ago
  Regardless of where you're born, high-paying jobs and the promise of professional growth are in the city. So 18+ (heading-to-college-and-after) leave their rural homes and rarely go back. Even if they manage to go to a local university, schooling leads to a niche job in some /other/ city far away from home. Not only that, but agricultural jobs have been dwindling for decades. Anecdotally, (before my time) my high school used to shut down in the middle of spring so all the teenagers could harvest tobacco. These days that's just grandpa on a giant harvester.
  - coldtea 3y ago
    >So 18+ (heading-to-college-and-after) leave their rural homes and rarely go back. One would think so, but then you read things like: "Do Americans live where they grew up? At 68%, the majority polled answered yes, they live in or near the city where they grew up. People most often stay in the same town to be with their family, while those who move typically move for work. The data shows that these two reasons are the biggest factors in moving. It’s interesting to compare the current data to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 study results. A few years ago, 75% of women stayed in their hometowns, compared to 68% of men. Those numbers have flipped, according to our 2022 survey."
- Fishkins 3y ago
  I'd also guess rural areas have higher birth rates and younger marriages. By the time those kids reach 25, though, a lot of them will have moved to cities. That could still mean HPsquared is correct. I'd need to look up stats to be sure.
  - oooyay 3y ago
    > I'd also guess rural areas have higher birth rates and younger marriages. By the time those kids reach 25, though, a lot of them will have moved to cities. Is that statistically true? Most small and rural towns I know of a lot of people feel or are stuck when they're young.
- Auracle 3y ago
  It’s pretty common in my rural area for people to move to a city after college and then come back (or go somewhere else rural) in their 30s or 40s. People often want to raise kids in the type of environment they grew up in.
  - jajko 3y ago
    Yes, city people rarely enjoy quiet simpler life near/in the nature and wonder WTF folks actually do there, and rural folks struggle to find cities appealing enough due to all the missing bits, noise, pollution, crowds. Work or studies overcome this, but as you write, especially with kids, getting a bit older folks somehow remember positives of their childhood and revert, if work allows it. WFH gained wider acceptance due to covid helped massively, I still hope self-driving cars/pooled ai taxis will cover the rest in few years. Thats literally a continuous trillion dollar business, and compared to many big name corps popular here this would tremendously positively help so many people. IIRC some psychological research found out we humans can adapt to almost any situation, positive or negative, and over time revert to our original selves and level of happiness coming from our own existence (that's why joy from ie new toy fizzles away so quickly not only in kids). But folks seem to not do that for 2 items even after time passes - pets you actually enjoy (consistent positive energy) and long daily commutes where life tickles away and you are stuck doing nothing worthwhile for your life (the opposite).
    - shiroiushi 3y ago
      Huh? Most of the city people I've known go out on weekends to parks or other rural areas to go hiking, or go hiking in convenient city parks. Some go more often than others of course, but it's pretty common, since being fit and healthy is a part of urban culture. My rural extended family doesn't even know what "hiking" is. I've never seen rural Southerners who actually go hiking anywhere.
hedgehog 3y ago
That is the range of ages for which they found an increase but the biggest increase is in the 30-34 age subgroup. The report is not hard to skim, the overall picture is rural populations particularly in southern states are dying much more of "natural" causes like heart disease and cancer, and that divergence from urban populations started in the mid 80s. There's some speculation in the report as to why.
- panarky 3y ago
  Mortality is strongly correlated with wealth and physical activity. Wealth is a proxy for better healthcare, diet and education. City people are generally richer and walk more. Rural residents are poorer and drive everywhere.

I'm a bit skeptical of the age grouping. 25-54 is a very wide range, and I would assume cities have more 25-year-olds, whereas the countryside will have more 54-year-olds.

082349872349872 3y ago

I think that's part of the point: US agricultural policy since at least the 1970s has been "get big or get out", so you'd expect remaining rural populations to be more marginal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Butz#Secretary_of_Agriculture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Butz#Secretary_of_Agricul... (It's possible to still have viable family farms in 2024, but it requires a willingness to have both (a) economic inefficiencies, and (b) legislative restrictions; although the Home of the Brave might be willing to implement a similar program, the Land of the Free is certainly not)

coldtea 3y ago

>I would assume cities have more 25-year-olds, whereas the countryside will have more 54-year-olds. Would that be true? For the same total population on each (say, 1M in cities vs 1M in the countryside) I'd expect the countryside to have higher birth rates and younger marrying couples, so younger demographics. Whereas cities have more career focused people, who marry later (if ever), have less kids, and have them at a greater age.

inanutshellus 3y ago
Regardless of where you're born, high-paying jobs and the promise of professional growth are in the city. So 18+ (heading-to-college-and-after) leave their rural homes and rarely go back. Even if they manage to go to a local university, schooling leads to a niche job in some /other/ city far away from home. Not only that, but agricultural jobs have been dwindling for decades. Anecdotally, (before my time) my high school used to shut down in the middle of spring so all the teenagers could harvest tobacco. These days that's just grandpa on a giant harvester.
- coldtea 3y ago
  >So 18+ (heading-to-college-and-after) leave their rural homes and rarely go back. One would think so, but then you read things like: "Do Americans live where they grew up? At 68%, the majority polled answered yes, they live in or near the city where they grew up. People most often stay in the same town to be with their family, while those who move typically move for work. The data shows that these two reasons are the biggest factors in moving. It’s interesting to compare the current data to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 study results. A few years ago, 75% of women stayed in their hometowns, compared to 68% of men. Those numbers have flipped, according to our 2022 survey."
Fishkins 3y ago
I'd also guess rural areas have higher birth rates and younger marriages. By the time those kids reach 25, though, a lot of them will have moved to cities. That could still mean HPsquared is correct. I'd need to look up stats to be sure.
- oooyay 3y ago
  > I'd also guess rural areas have higher birth rates and younger marriages. By the time those kids reach 25, though, a lot of them will have moved to cities. Is that statistically true? Most small and rural towns I know of a lot of people feel or are stuck when they're young.
Auracle 3y ago
It’s pretty common in my rural area for people to move to a city after college and then come back (or go somewhere else rural) in their 30s or 40s. People often want to raise kids in the type of environment they grew up in.
- jajko 3y ago
  Yes, city people rarely enjoy quiet simpler life near/in the nature and wonder WTF folks actually do there, and rural folks struggle to find cities appealing enough due to all the missing bits, noise, pollution, crowds. Work or studies overcome this, but as you write, especially with kids, getting a bit older folks somehow remember positives of their childhood and revert, if work allows it. WFH gained wider acceptance due to covid helped massively, I still hope self-driving cars/pooled ai taxis will cover the rest in few years. Thats literally a continuous trillion dollar business, and compared to many big name corps popular here this would tremendously positively help so many people. IIRC some psychological research found out we humans can adapt to almost any situation, positive or negative, and over time revert to our original selves and level of happiness coming from our own existence (that's why joy from ie new toy fizzles away so quickly not only in kids). But folks seem to not do that for 2 items even after time passes - pets you actually enjoy (consistent positive energy) and long daily commutes where life tickles away and you are stuck doing nothing worthwhile for your life (the opposite).
  - shiroiushi 3y ago
    Huh? Most of the city people I've known go out on weekends to parks or other rural areas to go hiking, or go hiking in convenient city parks. Some go more often than others of course, but it's pretty common, since being fit and healthy is a part of urban culture. My rural extended family doesn't even know what "hiking" is. I've never seen rural Southerners who actually go hiking anywhere.

hedgehog 3y ago

That is the range of ages for which they found an increase but the biggest increase is in the 30-34 age subgroup. The report is not hard to skim, the overall picture is rural populations particularly in southern states are dying much more of "natural" causes like heart disease and cancer, and that divergence from urban populations started in the mid 80s. There's some speculation in the report as to why.

panarky 3y ago
Mortality is strongly correlated with wealth and physical activity. Wealth is a proxy for better healthcare, diet and education. City people are generally richer and walk more. Rural residents are poorer and drive everywhere.