10 ms·

New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

91 points by samhan 14y ago

jes5199 14y ago
I feel really lucky that I dropped out of college without accumulating any debt, and that I was never unemployed during the recession. I wish that gave me some ability to advise other people on how to escape the debt+unemployment trap, but other than "be smart and tenacious and lucky", I don't actually know what to say.
mojaam 14y ago
Ugh, so depressing... go to college, rack up enormous amounts of debt, and hope to find a job so that you can start paying off the monthly minimums for the seemingly the rest of your life.
- wyclif 14y ago
  I know education is a common theme here on HN, and I always read articles like this. I still think education (esp. in US and UK) is ripe for entrepreneurial disruption, and I enjoy seeing what investors are doing in this space. The system is clearly broken, because incentives are out of proportion to costs.
  - FuzzyDunlop 14y ago
    I wouldn't be surprised if the system operated in the system's best interest, and not the student's. I only have anecdotal evidence, but from my own experience, the whole system was designed to keep you in the system for as long as possible. This may have been exacerbated by stupid government targets to get, say, at least 50% of all pupils into university. And in at least some of those cases, you're only going because you're brainwashed into it.
    - deleted 14y ago
      [deleted]
  - crusso 14y ago
    Yep. Incentives always get out of whack when the government gets involved. It's what's happened to health care, retirement funding, mortgage financing, on and on and on. When incentives aren't aligned with human nature, inefficiencies amplify and eventually break whichever system the government stepped in to fix.
  - adyus 14y ago
    Alas, entrepreneurial disruption in this field is made near impossible by the need for governmental oversight of all things related to education. Until "official" degrees stop being an unspoken requirement when considering job applicants, startups such as Khan Academy will remain useful, but ultimately powerless to truly disrupt education.
  - georgieporgie 14y ago
    I think the best entrepreneurial disruption you could provide in education would be to provide education on entrepreneurial methods. :-) I'm in my 30s, and I have quite a lot of various skills, but spotting areas of opportunity is still not among those skills.
- cperciva 14y ago
  In certain fields the "go into debt to pay for an education which will help you get a good job" strategy works well. Unfortunately, governments and educational institutions have taken "college graduates earn X% more and have a Y% lower unemployment rate" statistics and pretended that they apply to all college graduates, regardless of their field. Only a fool would think that a degree in underwater basket weaving would provide the same employment prospects as a degree in any of the STEM fields, but fools are precisely the target market for institutions providing such courses.
  - nextstep 14y ago
    It hasn't been too long since I was starting college. For freshman (in the US at least), colleges encourage students to try lots of classes and take their time picking a major. Many schools don't require students to declare a track until they are in their sophomore year -- halfway through a four-year program! Many can be completed in 2-3 years (even "hard" majors, like physics), and the schools design the degree programs with this buffer so students can wait to make a decision. Of course, the schools don't mind recieving four years of tuition for an education that could be completed in three. But it's easy to blame the schools. In my experience, students don't really make career choices (like picking a major) by weighing the economic costs and benefits. Our current culture in college encourages students to take on massive amounts of debt regardless of their field. For many liberal arts degrees, this is probably a foolish financial decision. But for many college freshman, the apparent difficulty of a subject is considered thoroughly, while the job prospects of a career path are a secondary consideration.
    - cperciva 14y ago
      for many college freshman, the apparent difficulty of a subject is considered thoroughly, while the job prospects of a career path are a secondary consideration. Right. My point was that this is partly because of the educational culture which promotes "getting a degree will make you earn more" rather than "getting a degree in subject X, Y, or Z will make you earn more". Students who enter college intending to study science but can't hack it would probably be better off dropping out; instead, most end up in liberal arts and are surprised when their degree turns out to be useless because all the advertising they ever saw promoted "having a degree" as the only relevant flag.
- greeneggs 14y ago
  The average debt of college graduates for the class of 2010 is $25,000, and is estimated to be $27,000 for the class of 2011 [1]. Compared to housing, this is not a lot of debt. Many people these days will even buy a car on credit, which can be a comparable amount of debt, of course depending on the car. [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/education/average-student-loan-debt-grew-by-5-percent-in-2010.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/education/average-student-...
sunsu 14y ago
Should note that it's "attended college" but not necessarily graduated, and that makes a huge difference.
- jwarzech 14y ago
  That's what caught my eye as well. I don't think a semester counts as "attended college". I'd like to see a more detailed breakdown.
- fluidcruft 14y ago
  Another demographic variable mentioned in the article is that the older end of the unemployed cohort had much lower rates of "attended college" and rises are expected as they age leave the workforce. At first my concern seeing that chart was "OMG why didn't anyone see this trend over the last 20 years and why hasn't it been part of the public discussion", but given at least that confound is not factored into the data display, my feeling is now that it's more of a meaningless fished graphic/statistic for effect/pageviews.
- barik 14y ago
  This is hugely important, and seems to have been glossed over. "attending college" != "graduating from college". College is, for better or worse, a binary signal. You either graduated or you didn't. When you apply for an Engineering license, the Engineering board doesn't care that you completed 100% of your Engineering courses but never received a degree because you forgot to take History 101. Because of this, it's even worse in that it's a sunk cost. Better to go ahead and drop out earlier rather than later, because not only will you not have a degree, you'll have wasted that many years for no measurable improvement in hiring potential.
  - WalterBright 14y ago
    You won't have wasted "that many years" if you took courses that taught you something useful, even if you did not graduate.
- thisisnotmyname 14y ago
  This should be the top comment. This article seems to be playing games with the numbers. Why do they choose to focus on the fraction of the unemployed? This trend could just be explained by greater numbers of people attending some amount of college relative to the past. They should really show the fraction of college educated unemployed, vs fraction without college educated unemployed, but that wouldn't fit their narrative.
hanibash 14y ago
Wow. I can't believe it's this bad.
veyron 14y ago
Education bubble is slowly deflating. Drawing analogies to housing bubble: People would "flip" their college education for a high-paying job Easy loans made it possible for everyone to participate Education prices inflated faster than core inflation, setting a higher hurdle for students There are fewer jobs at palatable salaries (various reasons) Now we have boatloads of students saddled with an education that they can't pay off You can be as nuanced as you wish (e.g. english major as subprime loan) but the aforementioned discussion is sufficient. I expect to see a sharp correction soon.
- ryguytilidie 14y ago
  The worst part is that just like in the housing bubble, where lenders went into strawberry fields and offered home loans for 300k houses in california to undocumented immigrants making 10/hr and then asked for everyone else to bail them out because they are shocked the person wasn't able to afford the loan. Same thing applies here. You recruit a bunch of people who have no business being at college and certainly can't afford it, convince them that they NEED college and should take on student loans, they struggle, graduate and have no real marketable skills. Bank that made the loan hassles the student and when millions can't pay them back, I'm guessing we have another bailout on our hands. Glad we learn our lesson last time!
  - jchrisa 14y ago
    If I had student debt I'd be thrilled not to pay it back. This country needs a general debt strike or perhaps a jubilee.
    - gee_totes 14y ago
      A debt strike would be the ultimate 'hack' of our current economic system.
      - veyron 14y ago
        The right play is to short Apollo Group and Nelnet (loans) and DeVry and other for-profit schools.
holdenc 14y ago
For some people a college degree can lead to a crippling level of entitlement, and unwillingness to do the kind of work they hoped to escape by attending college. A college degree doesn't preclude someone from waiting tables, cleaning up messes and answering phones. Though many graduates seem to be confused about this. For unemployed colleges grads -- here's a rudimentary formula for success. Start a free website with Weebly and call it IWillMopItUp.com. And let people know that you will mop up their mess for $20 and hour. Pretty crappy right? Yes, but it epitomizes the can do attitude and whatever it takes mentality that matters in this difficult economy. The bottom line is that very hard working smart college grads still have opportunities, but the first step is them getting over the fact they went to college.
- ryguytilidie 14y ago
  You know close to 50% of new grads are unemployed right? This is millions of kids a year who were told to get educated and now have no job waiting for them when they do. Acting like millions of kids should just get a job mopping floors and drop the entitlement is super ignorant and borders on dangerous. I would put a lot of this blame on the fact that tax cuts for the rich that were supposed to "raise demand for workers" have just transferred money from consumers to corporations. We ignored that the lower and middle class constitute the VAST majority of consumption (which actually does create jobs, unlike some rich guy just having more money) and now the upper class has such an imbalance of wealth there are millions less people who can afford to buy their product. Deciding that millions of new graduates aren't getting jobs because they are lazy is one of the more ignorant and lazy arguments I've ever seen.
  - soup10 14y ago
    >Deciding that millions of new graduates aren't getting jobs because they are lazy is one of the more ignorant and lazy arguments I've ever seen. How do you interpret the linked article then? "Mopping floors" doesn't literally mean mopping floors, it means settling for the jobs that are available, not the jobs you want.
    - 14y ago
WiseWeasel 14y ago
I wonder how long before a politician promises a chicken in every pot, and a robot in every kitchen.
jiggy2011 14y ago
I'm not sure how college debt works in the USA but in the UK you don't have to payback the debt unless you are earning over a certain paycheck (£15k p/a or so I believe). So if you end up unemployed you don't have to worry about it. Also the debt is written off after a certain number of years and the monthly payment is always calculated at a relatively modest amount compared to your earnings and deducted straight from your paycheck. It's not counted as debt for the purposes of getting a loan or mortgage either, so essentially it's not something you really have to worry about as you will never get getting a court summons or baliffs through your door unless you have deliberately defrauded them. How is it in the USA? Are you constantly chased for the debt regardless of your circumstances?
- cantankerous 14y ago
  How is it in the USA? Are you constantly chased for the debt regardless of your circumstances? There are some exceptions, but generally student loans are something that you're stuck with. That's to say, you can't just shed them in bankruptcy proceedings.
  - jiggy2011 14y ago
    I think it's the same in the UK regards bankruptcy but what happens if you become temporarily unemployed or can only get employment that is very low paid? Is it basically "fuck you, pay me"?
    - cantankerous 14y ago
      On paper yes, but you can't draw blood from a stone. Loans can be adjusted if you can't make payments like any other loan, but your credit will be duly impacted by your inability to meet your obligations. The US doesn't have anything like what you mentioned the UK having for students in general. I think there exist some similar setups for people in particular professions, like teaching, for example, but even then I don't think their benefits are as good as the ones you laid out, but I'm no expert on how all of that works.
    - droithomme 14y ago
Futurebot 14y ago
Perhaps it needs to be made very clear, in case there are some that still are confused about why many people (who study non-technical subjects) choose to go to college (aside from many of the well-known ones like the promises of how it would lead to a 1950s style middle-class lifestyle; because their parents made them; because it's rite-of-passage; or because their friends are there), for /whatever/ major they choose (or are able to handle): it feels like they have to in order to even be in the running for jobs, because HR uses the presence of a degree, _any_ degree as a first-line FILTERING mechanism. In down economic times especially, when you're getting 200 resumes for a job that could be done by someone with a 4th grade education, you need some way to cut down that pile and that is one of the easiest ways to do it. Viewed in that light, you can see why so many people are very, very upset by all this. Politicians, the media, their parents, their friends have all told them "get a degree or you'll be a [metaphorical] fry cook" and now it's "get a degree if you want to be able to even get a job as a fry cook." Rephrased, it's "a bachelor's degree is the new high school diploma", and so it becomes about the fact that you got the degree at all that matters. If you don't, there are 199 people (who have the same (lack of) experience you do), but do have the degree. Theirs goes in the "scan again to filter for some other reason" pile, yours goes in the trash. As far as the the ones who racked up debt AND didn't finish: they've got the worst of both worlds. Forget about majors, forget about "putting in dues", and start thinking about a country and society (I'm talking about the US here) that tells you that you MUST go to college in order to get a job, forces you into debt to do so (not everyone is grant material - the recent stats say 90% of grads take on debt) and then tells you there aren't enough jobs for everyone (for the well known reasons, but I'd put automation at the top of the list these days. Recent stats say 3+ people are available for work for each job opening) and you'll understand why these people are mortified. It's also clear where all this leads, to the dismay of many: a guaranteed income society. We'll be forced to accept that many, perhaps even MOST people will not be needed for work. There will be nothing for them to do, and nothing we can do about it. The people that do work will be the robot designers, maintainers, politicians, managers, personal service people, and some miscellaneous workers. Everyone else will be part of a "sports, arts, and leisure" society. That might be 50-100 years out, but it's coming, and no one should have any illusions about what that means. Our conception of our societies as defined by work will need to change, and we'll need to accept that people who do not work are not lazy, ne'er do wells or parasites, but that they are the result of the transition to post-work (and hopefully post-scarcity) societies. The calls for bringing back factory jobs, re-empowering unions, etc. are short-sighted and misguided; there's no turning back the tide, and we should adjust our thinking accordingly. Finally, it should be clear that many right here on this site, and those that they work with are the ones helping to create this new world. An automated one, an easier one, and hopefully, a better one.
now_what 14y ago
Pace comments that STEM majors are not part of the trend, consider this: I started my undergrad education following the dot com bubble years and was dissuaded to pursue compsci. I went into civil (structural) engineering instead. Over half of my civeng classmates would go to postgrad education -- in engineering, law, whatever -- precisely because of the inability to find a job in civil engineering. About a third of my Master's class (structural engineering @ Berkeley, a top school in the field) couldn't find a job upon graduation. I landed a job purely by accident (with a 3.75 GPA), where a better qualified classmate of mine took another year to find one. I haven't kept track of what happened to the rest.
- Apocryphon 14y ago
  Exactly. The STEM vs. liberal arts distinction is overgeneralized and divisive; there are definitely STEM majors out there who are having job issues as well. Not all STEM fields have the same employment opportunities. This problem should concern all of us.
- itg 14y ago
  My cousin is one. Studied Chemistry at his state flagship, internships, leadership positions at clubs, high gpa. Graduated in '11 and took him months to finally get a job as a lab tech. Doesn't have much room for growth and people he talked to tell him to avoid the PhD for numerous reasons.
bryanlarsen 14y ago
English Canadians do not understand why young Quebecois are rioting over tuition price increases despite enjoying some of the cheapest tuitions in North America, even after the proposed increases. This article helps explain why young people should be upset.
InclinedPlane 14y ago
I'll just briefly hit the major points of what I think is "wrong with the system" since this is obviously a huge topic. First, public educations are a crap shoot. A high school diploma is a joke, it doesn't even guarantee basic literacy or numeracy. This is a big reason why white collar jobs have increasingly been forced to rely on other credentials. Despite vastly increasing per student spending over the years the quality of education hasn't improved at all and by some measures has gotten worse. Second, student loan debt is out of control. It's too easy for people to sign themselves up for huge amounts of debt regardless of their future job opportunities. This distorts the market and creates an education bubble. Third, society has turned its back on "dirty jobs". It's becoming less and less common for folks, especially middle and upper middle class young adults, to aspire toward jobs that involve manual labor. There's nothing wrong with construction, welding, automotive repair, culinary arts, etc. Trade schools are faster and cheaper than a 4 year college, and they typically leave a graduate with very solid prospects at gaining a fairly well paying job just out of school. If more people made that choice unemployment would be a lot lower. Fourth, "vanity degrees" are far too common these days, partly for the reasons listed above. If you need higher education to further your career then if you pursue a degree with very shaky career prospects and you go into massive debt to do so then quite frankly you made a very bad life choice, and all of the people who helped you do it (your family and friends, your counselors, your loan officers, etc.) are partly to blame as well. Yes there is value to studying history, or English literature, but you should never for even a single moment fool yourself into believing that you are doing anything other than digging your own financial grave when you are indulging in those majors. Unfortunately for a lot of middle and upper middle class 18-25 year olds there has come to be a great deal of pressure behind taking the same "acceptable" educational and career track. High school -> 4 year arts & science degree at a prestigious school -> white collar job. If you are in high school or college right now I urge you to challenge this. Look at your career prospects and finances seriously. Consider becoming a STEM major if possible. If that's not feasible consider switching to a trade school. And try to get yourself into the job market early even while you are in school to build up your resume and your skills. It's far, far easier to study history and English lit as a hobby in your free time than it is to build a well paying career on such things.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
f45s8g2 14y ago
@Futurebot You should get a degree if you can, period. Whether you work as a fry cook or not. Education is worth it. It has value, to you and to society, apart from its utility as a factor in filtering people for job positions. No one wants to see the US become even more uneducated. If you want to get cynical about the job market, try thinking of it this way. No doubt most have heard the old adage, "You need to sell yourself." Another way to think of this is that "jobs" are really a question of convincing someone else to pay you. That could be an elaborate process involving educational degrees and past accomplishments, or, in today's world, it might be something like the startups discussed here on HN: You announce a bit of software and a website, and the thundering herd starts clicking. Some of the herd is willing to pay. If that percentage is large enough, you have a runaway success, something like Dropbox. Those who are paying you are not asking to see your resume. The only people who cared that you graduated from MIT were the VC and their clients who funded you. That is, if you were funded. Don't kid yourself. The most important people you convinced to pay you werenot the investors. They were the customers. Now, maybe you become wealthy overnight. But that does not reduce the long term value of your degree from MIT. The degree is not necessarily the cause of your success. Wealth can be made with or without education. (That has always been true, otherwise small business, which is the majority of business in the US, would cease to exist.) Technology allows this to happen now in a way never before seen in history. But... Education has value to you and to society because education will make your life more interesting and an educated society is better than an uneducated one. These are tough times. But things go in cycles. If you skip education, and then years from now things get better, you may regret it. Get an education as early as possible (i.e. if you have the money, do it). It will benefit everyone in the long term. Things go in cycles.
sendsoared 14y ago
@Futurebot You should get a degree if you can, period. Whether you work as a fry cook or not. Education is worth it. It has value, to you and to society, apart from its utility as a factor infiltering people for job positions. No one wants to see the US become even more uneducated.If you want to get cynical about the job market (and young people dohave a right to be cynical about it), try thinking of it this way. Nodoubt most have heard the old adage, "You need to sell yourself." Anotherway to think of this is that "jobs" are really a question of convincingsomeone else (not necessarily an employer, but maybe a client) to pay you.That is always what it comes down to. This could be an elaborate processinvolving educational degrees, past accomplishments, recommendations,etc. or, in today's world, it might be something like the startupsdiscussed here on HN: You announce a bit of software and a website,and the thundering herd starts clicking. Some of the herd is willingto pay. If that percentage is large enough, you have a runaway success,something like Dropbox.Those who are paying you are not asking to see your resume. The onlypeople who cared that you graduated from MIT were the VC and their clientswho funded you. That is, if you were funded. Don't kid yourself. The mostimportant people you convinced to pay you werenot the investors. Theywere the customers. In the end what mattered is whether customers wereconvinced to pay you. How they arrived at that decision might actuallybe quite simple (and quite arbitrary). Now, maybe using the web as your medium you manange to become wealthyovernight. But that does not reduce the long term value of your degreefrom MIT. The degree is not necessarily the cause of your success(e.g. maybe you cannot prove that it was). Wealth can be made withor without education. (That has always been true, otherwise smallbusiness, which is the majority of business in the US, would cease toexist.) Technology allows this to happen now in a way never before seenin history. But... Education has value to you and to society because education will makeyour life more interesting and an educated society is better than anuneducated one.These are tough times. But things go in cycles. If you skip education,and then years from now things get better, you may regret it. Get aneducation as early as possible (i.e. if you have the money, do it). Itwill benefit everyone in the long term. Things go in cycles. It's hard to see this when you are young. This is because you have not yet lived through an economic cycle as a person of working age.
boboblong 14y ago
"Ask them for work. If they deny you work, ask for bread. If they deny you bread, take it." - Emma Goldman I fall into the "some college" category. I have no issue with mopping floors, unloading trucks, waiting tables, etc. What I have an issue with is the number of applications I've filled out without getting so much as an interview. Here's my view in a nutshell: I am not above being a dishwasher. I am, however, above begging to be a dishwasher. You can only fill out so many applications for employment at literally the lowest level before you start to wonder when stealing becomes justified.
EricDeb 14y ago
it is not necessarily a bad thing that our general populous is more educated. What I am appalled at is the cost of higher level education and those who willingly choose private schools and copious amounts of debt.

91 points by samhan 14y ago

I feel really lucky that I dropped out of college without accumulating any debt, and that I was never unemployed during the recession. I wish that gave me some ability to advise other people on how to escape the debt+unemployment trap, but other than "be smart and tenacious and lucky", I don't actually know what to say.

mojaam 14y ago

Ugh, so depressing... go to college, rack up enormous amounts of debt, and hope to find a job so that you can start paying off the monthly minimums for the seemingly the rest of your life.

wyclif 14y ago
I know education is a common theme here on HN, and I always read articles like this. I still think education (esp. in US and UK) is ripe for entrepreneurial disruption, and I enjoy seeing what investors are doing in this space. The system is clearly broken, because incentives are out of proportion to costs.
- FuzzyDunlop 14y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if the system operated in the system's best interest, and not the student's. I only have anecdotal evidence, but from my own experience, the whole system was designed to keep you in the system for as long as possible. This may have been exacerbated by stupid government targets to get, say, at least 50% of all pupils into university. And in at least some of those cases, you're only going because you're brainwashed into it.
  - deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]
- crusso 14y ago
  Yep. Incentives always get out of whack when the government gets involved. It's what's happened to health care, retirement funding, mortgage financing, on and on and on. When incentives aren't aligned with human nature, inefficiencies amplify and eventually break whichever system the government stepped in to fix.
- adyus 14y ago
  Alas, entrepreneurial disruption in this field is made near impossible by the need for governmental oversight of all things related to education. Until "official" degrees stop being an unspoken requirement when considering job applicants, startups such as Khan Academy will remain useful, but ultimately powerless to truly disrupt education.
- georgieporgie 14y ago
  I think the best entrepreneurial disruption you could provide in education would be to provide education on entrepreneurial methods. :-) I'm in my 30s, and I have quite a lot of various skills, but spotting areas of opportunity is still not among those skills.
cperciva 14y ago
In certain fields the "go into debt to pay for an education which will help you get a good job" strategy works well. Unfortunately, governments and educational institutions have taken "college graduates earn X% more and have a Y% lower unemployment rate" statistics and pretended that they apply to all college graduates, regardless of their field. Only a fool would think that a degree in underwater basket weaving would provide the same employment prospects as a degree in any of the STEM fields, but fools are precisely the target market for institutions providing such courses.
- nextstep 14y ago
  It hasn't been too long since I was starting college. For freshman (in the US at least), colleges encourage students to try lots of classes and take their time picking a major. Many schools don't require students to declare a track until they are in their sophomore year -- halfway through a four-year program! Many can be completed in 2-3 years (even "hard" majors, like physics), and the schools design the degree programs with this buffer so students can wait to make a decision. Of course, the schools don't mind recieving four years of tuition for an education that could be completed in three. But it's easy to blame the schools. In my experience, students don't really make career choices (like picking a major) by weighing the economic costs and benefits. Our current culture in college encourages students to take on massive amounts of debt regardless of their field. For many liberal arts degrees, this is probably a foolish financial decision. But for many college freshman, the apparent difficulty of a subject is considered thoroughly, while the job prospects of a career path are a secondary consideration.
  - cperciva 14y ago
    for many college freshman, the apparent difficulty of a subject is considered thoroughly, while the job prospects of a career path are a secondary consideration. Right. My point was that this is partly because of the educational culture which promotes "getting a degree will make you earn more" rather than "getting a degree in subject X, Y, or Z will make you earn more". Students who enter college intending to study science but can't hack it would probably be better off dropping out; instead, most end up in liberal arts and are surprised when their degree turns out to be useless because all the advertising they ever saw promoted "having a degree" as the only relevant flag.
greeneggs 14y ago
The average debt of college graduates for the class of 2010 is $25,000, and is estimated to be $27,000 for the class of 2011 [1]. Compared to housing, this is not a lot of debt. Many people these days will even buy a car on credit, which can be a comparable amount of debt, of course depending on the car. [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/education/average-student-loan-debt-grew-by-5-percent-in-2010.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/education/average-student-...

sunsu 14y ago

Should note that it's "attended college" but not necessarily graduated, and that makes a huge difference.

jwarzech 14y ago
That's what caught my eye as well. I don't think a semester counts as "attended college". I'd like to see a more detailed breakdown.
fluidcruft 14y ago
Another demographic variable mentioned in the article is that the older end of the unemployed cohort had much lower rates of "attended college" and rises are expected as they age leave the workforce. At first my concern seeing that chart was "OMG why didn't anyone see this trend over the last 20 years and why hasn't it been part of the public discussion", but given at least that confound is not factored into the data display, my feeling is now that it's more of a meaningless fished graphic/statistic for effect/pageviews.
barik 14y ago
This is hugely important, and seems to have been glossed over. "attending college" != "graduating from college". College is, for better or worse, a binary signal. You either graduated or you didn't. When you apply for an Engineering license, the Engineering board doesn't care that you completed 100% of your Engineering courses but never received a degree because you forgot to take History 101. Because of this, it's even worse in that it's a sunk cost. Better to go ahead and drop out earlier rather than later, because not only will you not have a degree, you'll have wasted that many years for no measurable improvement in hiring potential.
- WalterBright 14y ago
  You won't have wasted "that many years" if you took courses that taught you something useful, even if you did not graduate.
thisisnotmyname 14y ago
This should be the top comment. This article seems to be playing games with the numbers. Why do they choose to focus on the fraction of the unemployed? This trend could just be explained by greater numbers of people attending some amount of college relative to the past. They should really show the fraction of college educated unemployed, vs fraction without college educated unemployed, but that wouldn't fit their narrative.

hanibash 14y ago

Wow. I can't believe it's this bad.

veyron 14y ago

Education bubble is slowly deflating. Drawing analogies to housing bubble: People would "flip" their college education for a high-paying job Easy loans made it possible for everyone to participate Education prices inflated faster than core inflation, setting a higher hurdle for students There are fewer jobs at palatable salaries (various reasons) Now we have boatloads of students saddled with an education that they can't pay off You can be as nuanced as you wish (e.g. english major as subprime loan) but the aforementioned discussion is sufficient. I expect to see a sharp correction soon.

ryguytilidie 14y ago
The worst part is that just like in the housing bubble, where lenders went into strawberry fields and offered home loans for 300k houses in california to undocumented immigrants making 10/hr and then asked for everyone else to bail them out because they are shocked the person wasn't able to afford the loan. Same thing applies here. You recruit a bunch of people who have no business being at college and certainly can't afford it, convince them that they NEED college and should take on student loans, they struggle, graduate and have no real marketable skills. Bank that made the loan hassles the student and when millions can't pay them back, I'm guessing we have another bailout on our hands. Glad we learn our lesson last time!
- jchrisa 14y ago
  If I had student debt I'd be thrilled not to pay it back. This country needs a general debt strike or perhaps a jubilee.
  - gee_totes 14y ago
    A debt strike would be the ultimate 'hack' of our current economic system.
    - veyron 14y ago
      The right play is to short Apollo Group and Nelnet (loans) and DeVry and other for-profit schools.

holdenc 14y ago

For some people a college degree can lead to a crippling level of entitlement, and unwillingness to do the kind of work they hoped to escape by attending college. A college degree doesn't preclude someone from waiting tables, cleaning up messes and answering phones. Though many graduates seem to be confused about this. For unemployed colleges grads -- here's a rudimentary formula for success. Start a free website with Weebly and call it IWillMopItUp.com. And let people know that you will mop up their mess for $20 and hour. Pretty crappy right? Yes, but it epitomizes the can do attitude and whatever it takes mentality that matters in this difficult economy. The bottom line is that very hard working smart college grads still have opportunities, but the first step is them getting over the fact they went to college.

ryguytilidie 14y ago
You know close to 50% of new grads are unemployed right? This is millions of kids a year who were told to get educated and now have no job waiting for them when they do. Acting like millions of kids should just get a job mopping floors and drop the entitlement is super ignorant and borders on dangerous. I would put a lot of this blame on the fact that tax cuts for the rich that were supposed to "raise demand for workers" have just transferred money from consumers to corporations. We ignored that the lower and middle class constitute the VAST majority of consumption (which actually does create jobs, unlike some rich guy just having more money) and now the upper class has such an imbalance of wealth there are millions less people who can afford to buy their product. Deciding that millions of new graduates aren't getting jobs because they are lazy is one of the more ignorant and lazy arguments I've ever seen.
- soup10 14y ago
  >Deciding that millions of new graduates aren't getting jobs because they are lazy is one of the more ignorant and lazy arguments I've ever seen. How do you interpret the linked article then? "Mopping floors" doesn't literally mean mopping floors, it means settling for the jobs that are available, not the jobs you want.
  - 14y ago

WiseWeasel 14y ago

I wonder how long before a politician promises a chicken in every pot, and a robot in every kitchen.

jiggy2011 14y ago

I'm not sure how college debt works in the USA but in the UK you don't have to payback the debt unless you are earning over a certain paycheck (£15k p/a or so I believe). So if you end up unemployed you don't have to worry about it. Also the debt is written off after a certain number of years and the monthly payment is always calculated at a relatively modest amount compared to your earnings and deducted straight from your paycheck. It's not counted as debt for the purposes of getting a loan or mortgage either, so essentially it's not something you really have to worry about as you will never get getting a court summons or baliffs through your door unless you have deliberately defrauded them. How is it in the USA? Are you constantly chased for the debt regardless of your circumstances?

cantankerous 14y ago
How is it in the USA? Are you constantly chased for the debt regardless of your circumstances? There are some exceptions, but generally student loans are something that you're stuck with. That's to say, you can't just shed them in bankruptcy proceedings.
- jiggy2011 14y ago
  I think it's the same in the UK regards bankruptcy but what happens if you become temporarily unemployed or can only get employment that is very low paid? Is it basically "fuck you, pay me"?
  - cantankerous 14y ago
    On paper yes, but you can't draw blood from a stone. Loans can be adjusted if you can't make payments like any other loan, but your credit will be duly impacted by your inability to meet your obligations. The US doesn't have anything like what you mentioned the UK having for students in general. I think there exist some similar setups for people in particular professions, like teaching, for example, but even then I don't think their benefits are as good as the ones you laid out, but I'm no expert on how all of that works.
  - droithomme 14y ago

Futurebot 14y ago

Perhaps it needs to be made very clear, in case there are some that still are confused about why many people (who study non-technical subjects) choose to go to college (aside from many of the well-known ones like the promises of how it would lead to a 1950s style middle-class lifestyle; because their parents made them; because it's rite-of-passage; or because their friends are there), for /whatever/ major they choose (or are able to handle): it feels like they have to in order to even be in the running for jobs, because HR uses the presence of a degree, _any_ degree as a first-line FILTERING mechanism. In down economic times especially, when you're getting 200 resumes for a job that could be done by someone with a 4th grade education, you need some way to cut down that pile and that is one of the easiest ways to do it. Viewed in that light, you can see why so many people are very, very upset by all this. Politicians, the media, their parents, their friends have all told them "get a degree or you'll be a [metaphorical] fry cook" and now it's "get a degree if you want to be able to even get a job as a fry cook." Rephrased, it's "a bachelor's degree is the new high school diploma", and so it becomes about the fact that you got the degree at all that matters. If you don't, there are 199 people (who have the same (lack of) experience you do), but do have the degree. Theirs goes in the "scan again to filter for some other reason" pile, yours goes in the trash. As far as the the ones who racked up debt AND didn't finish: they've got the worst of both worlds. Forget about majors, forget about "putting in dues", and start thinking about a country and society (I'm talking about the US here) that tells you that you MUST go to college in order to get a job, forces you into debt to do so (not everyone is grant material - the recent stats say 90% of grads take on debt) and then tells you there aren't enough jobs for everyone (for the well known reasons, but I'd put automation at the top of the list these days. Recent stats say 3+ people are available for work for each job opening) and you'll understand why these people are mortified. It's also clear where all this leads, to the dismay of many: a guaranteed income society. We'll be forced to accept that many, perhaps even MOST people will not be needed for work. There will be nothing for them to do, and nothing we can do about it. The people that do work will be the robot designers, maintainers, politicians, managers, personal service people, and some miscellaneous workers. Everyone else will be part of a "sports, arts, and leisure" society. That might be 50-100 years out, but it's coming, and no one should have any illusions about what that means. Our conception of our societies as defined by work will need to change, and we'll need to accept that people who do not work are not lazy, ne'er do wells or parasites, but that they are the result of the transition to post-work (and hopefully post-scarcity) societies. The calls for bringing back factory jobs, re-empowering unions, etc. are short-sighted and misguided; there's no turning back the tide, and we should adjust our thinking accordingly. Finally, it should be clear that many right here on this site, and those that they work with are the ones helping to create this new world. An automated one, an easier one, and hopefully, a better one.

now_what 14y ago

Pace comments that STEM majors are not part of the trend, consider this: I started my undergrad education following the dot com bubble years and was dissuaded to pursue compsci. I went into civil (structural) engineering instead. Over half of my civeng classmates would go to postgrad education -- in engineering, law, whatever -- precisely because of the inability to find a job in civil engineering. About a third of my Master's class (structural engineering @ Berkeley, a top school in the field) couldn't find a job upon graduation. I landed a job purely by accident (with a 3.75 GPA), where a better qualified classmate of mine took another year to find one. I haven't kept track of what happened to the rest.

Apocryphon 14y ago
Exactly. The STEM vs. liberal arts distinction is overgeneralized and divisive; there are definitely STEM majors out there who are having job issues as well. Not all STEM fields have the same employment opportunities. This problem should concern all of us.
itg 14y ago
My cousin is one. Studied Chemistry at his state flagship, internships, leadership positions at clubs, high gpa. Graduated in '11 and took him months to finally get a job as a lab tech. Doesn't have much room for growth and people he talked to tell him to avoid the PhD for numerous reasons.

bryanlarsen 14y ago

English Canadians do not understand why young Quebecois are rioting over tuition price increases despite enjoying some of the cheapest tuitions in North America, even after the proposed increases. This article helps explain why young people should be upset.

InclinedPlane 14y ago

I'll just briefly hit the major points of what I think is "wrong with the system" since this is obviously a huge topic. First, public educations are a crap shoot. A high school diploma is a joke, it doesn't even guarantee basic literacy or numeracy. This is a big reason why white collar jobs have increasingly been forced to rely on other credentials. Despite vastly increasing per student spending over the years the quality of education hasn't improved at all and by some measures has gotten worse. Second, student loan debt is out of control. It's too easy for people to sign themselves up for huge amounts of debt regardless of their future job opportunities. This distorts the market and creates an education bubble. Third, society has turned its back on "dirty jobs". It's becoming less and less common for folks, especially middle and upper middle class young adults, to aspire toward jobs that involve manual labor. There's nothing wrong with construction, welding, automotive repair, culinary arts, etc. Trade schools are faster and cheaper than a 4 year college, and they typically leave a graduate with very solid prospects at gaining a fairly well paying job just out of school. If more people made that choice unemployment would be a lot lower. Fourth, "vanity degrees" are far too common these days, partly for the reasons listed above. If you need higher education to further your career then if you pursue a degree with very shaky career prospects and you go into massive debt to do so then quite frankly you made a very bad life choice, and all of the people who helped you do it (your family and friends, your counselors, your loan officers, etc.) are partly to blame as well. Yes there is value to studying history, or English literature, but you should never for even a single moment fool yourself into believing that you are doing anything other than digging your own financial grave when you are indulging in those majors. Unfortunately for a lot of middle and upper middle class 18-25 year olds there has come to be a great deal of pressure behind taking the same "acceptable" educational and career track. High school -> 4 year arts & science degree at a prestigious school -> white collar job. If you are in high school or college right now I urge you to challenge this. Look at your career prospects and finances seriously. Consider becoming a STEM major if possible. If that's not feasible consider switching to a trade school. And try to get yourself into the job market early even while you are in school to build up your resume and your skills. It's far, far easier to study history and English lit as a hobby in your free time than it is to build a well paying career on such things.

deleted 14y ago
[deleted]

f45s8g2 14y ago

@Futurebot You should get a degree if you can, period. Whether you work as a fry cook or not. Education is worth it. It has value, to you and to society, apart from its utility as a factor in filtering people for job positions. No one wants to see the US become even more uneducated. If you want to get cynical about the job market, try thinking of it this way. No doubt most have heard the old adage, "You need to sell yourself." Another way to think of this is that "jobs" are really a question of convincing someone else to pay you. That could be an elaborate process involving educational degrees and past accomplishments, or, in today's world, it might be something like the startups discussed here on HN: You announce a bit of software and a website, and the thundering herd starts clicking. Some of the herd is willing to pay. If that percentage is large enough, you have a runaway success, something like Dropbox. Those who are paying you are not asking to see your resume. The only people who cared that you graduated from MIT were the VC and their clients who funded you. That is, if you were funded. Don't kid yourself. The most important people you convinced to pay you werenot the investors. They were the customers. Now, maybe you become wealthy overnight. But that does not reduce the long term value of your degree from MIT. The degree is not necessarily the cause of your success. Wealth can be made with or without education. (That has always been true, otherwise small business, which is the majority of business in the US, would cease to exist.) Technology allows this to happen now in a way never before seen in history. But... Education has value to you and to society because education will make your life more interesting and an educated society is better than an uneducated one. These are tough times. But things go in cycles. If you skip education, and then years from now things get better, you may regret it. Get an education as early as possible (i.e. if you have the money, do it). It will benefit everyone in the long term. Things go in cycles.

sendsoared 14y ago

@Futurebot You should get a degree if you can, period. Whether you work as a fry cook or not. Education is worth it. It has value, to you and to society, apart from its utility as a factor infiltering people for job positions. No one wants to see the US become even more uneducated.If you want to get cynical about the job market (and young people dohave a right to be cynical about it), try thinking of it this way. Nodoubt most have heard the old adage, "You need to sell yourself." Anotherway to think of this is that "jobs" are really a question of convincingsomeone else (not necessarily an employer, but maybe a client) to pay you.That is always what it comes down to. This could be an elaborate processinvolving educational degrees, past accomplishments, recommendations,etc. or, in today's world, it might be something like the startupsdiscussed here on HN: You announce a bit of software and a website,and the thundering herd starts clicking. Some of the herd is willingto pay. If that percentage is large enough, you have a runaway success,something like Dropbox.Those who are paying you are not asking to see your resume. The onlypeople who cared that you graduated from MIT were the VC and their clientswho funded you. That is, if you were funded. Don't kid yourself. The mostimportant people you convinced to pay you werenot the investors. Theywere the customers. In the end what mattered is whether customers wereconvinced to pay you. How they arrived at that decision might actuallybe quite simple (and quite arbitrary). Now, maybe using the web as your medium you manange to become wealthyovernight. But that does not reduce the long term value of your degreefrom MIT. The degree is not necessarily the cause of your success(e.g. maybe you cannot prove that it was). Wealth can be made withor without education. (That has always been true, otherwise smallbusiness, which is the majority of business in the US, would cease toexist.) Technology allows this to happen now in a way never before seenin history. But... Education has value to you and to society because education will makeyour life more interesting and an educated society is better than anuneducated one.These are tough times. But things go in cycles. If you skip education,and then years from now things get better, you may regret it. Get aneducation as early as possible (i.e. if you have the money, do it). Itwill benefit everyone in the long term. Things go in cycles. It's hard to see this when you are young. This is because you have not yet lived through an economic cycle as a person of working age.

boboblong 14y ago

"Ask them for work. If they deny you work, ask for bread. If they deny you bread, take it." - Emma Goldman I fall into the "some college" category. I have no issue with mopping floors, unloading trucks, waiting tables, etc. What I have an issue with is the number of applications I've filled out without getting so much as an interview. Here's my view in a nutshell: I am not above being a dishwasher. I am, however, above begging to be a dishwasher. You can only fill out so many applications for employment at literally the lowest level before you start to wonder when stealing becomes justified.

EricDeb 14y ago

it is not necessarily a bad thing that our general populous is more educated. What I am appalled at is the cost of higher level education and those who willingly choose private schools and copious amounts of debt.