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> Consistent with our theory, looking at arrest data, which reveal the age of the offender, the declines in crime were concentrated among those born after abort

> Consistent with our theory, looking at arrest data, which reveal the age of the offender, the declines in crime were concentrated among those born after abortion became legal. This seems to be confusing correlation with causation. Aren't there many other possible causes to explain the decrease in crime? For example, couldn't the decrease in crime (overall) be attributable to the fact that, due to better technology and policing methods, more criminals get caught, deterring future would-be criminals as well as removing their support and educational network and means of organization? That, and RICO, which has certainly decimated Cosa Nostra in the U.S., to the point that current and former members admit that the Italian/Sicilian Mafia will likely cease to exist as a significant organization in the near future. As well, the web arose during the 90's and caused profound societal changes, and the percentage of people carrying cash or available places holding cash has dropped every year since the 90's. Even bank robberies, which dominated crime in Los Angeles in the 80's, have largely disappeared.

SuperNinKenDo 3y ago
One can always object that correlation doesn't equal causation. They talk in the article about controlling for certain variables as best one can. You don't get to run double-blind experiments on societies, but as they say in the article, this is about as close as one gets. Your idea about the web is certainly interesting, and could be explored further, but it doesn't strongly account for why a specific age group is effected and why areas with higher abortion access are more effected while low access areas are less effected. Etc. Etc. Taken as a whole, the data do seem to make a strong case for their theory.
ipaddr 3y ago
Technology helps both sides. It leaves behind those unwilling to change. None of the other issues moves the needle. The italian mafia lost power that was grabbed by other groups who might have committed more crimes. Cashless societies get bank cards stolen or cards read as you purchase. Dangers a cash only society didn't have. DNA would have the biggest impact. Abortion matches the stats/timeline.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Lead is also a possibility for those times. Perhaps they were too quick to dismiss it.
  - gunapologist99 3y ago
    It's shocking to me that they just saw two partially aligned curves that confirmed their biases and then wrote a best-selling book (yes, I bought a copy as well) selling their admitted "hypothesis" while completely ignoring or giving short shrift to any alternative hypotheses or other possibilities for why those two curves seemed to be in alignment. This seems, to me, to violate scientific ethics. And now they write an article in the Economist, of all places, defending their terrible science. Freakonomics took a few outrageous "things you didn't know about X" headlines and made a fortune selling fool's gold.

SuperNinKenDo 3y ago

One can always object that correlation doesn't equal causation. They talk in the article about controlling for certain variables as best one can. You don't get to run double-blind experiments on societies, but as they say in the article, this is about as close as one gets. Your idea about the web is certainly interesting, and could be explored further, but it doesn't strongly account for why a specific age group is effected and why areas with higher abortion access are more effected while low access areas are less effected. Etc. Etc. Taken as a whole, the data do seem to make a strong case for their theory.

ipaddr 3y ago

Technology helps both sides. It leaves behind those unwilling to change. None of the other issues moves the needle. The italian mafia lost power that was grabbed by other groups who might have committed more crimes. Cashless societies get bank cards stolen or cards read as you purchase. Dangers a cash only society didn't have. DNA would have the biggest impact. Abortion matches the stats/timeline.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
Lead is also a possibility for those times. Perhaps they were too quick to dismiss it.
- gunapologist99 3y ago
  It's shocking to me that they just saw two partially aligned curves that confirmed their biases and then wrote a best-selling book (yes, I bought a copy as well) selling their admitted "hypothesis" while completely ignoring or giving short shrift to any alternative hypotheses or other possibilities for why those two curves seemed to be in alignment. This seems, to me, to violate scientific ethics. And now they write an article in the Economist, of all places, defending their terrible science. Freakonomics took a few outrageous "things you didn't know about X" headlines and made a fortune selling fool's gold.