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> but I do not operate with such faith, and prefer data. And what data is telling you that wind power is going to see a 100x drop? The reality is that only on
by Manuel_D 3y ago
> but I do not operate with such faith, and prefer data.
And what data is telling you that wind power is going to see a 100x drop? The reality is that only one of us has backed up our claims about the feasibly of lower costs with data. I pointed to the historical precedence of cheaper nuclear power. Your claim of 10-100x drop in costs is not.
- bryanlarsen 3y agohttps://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
- Manuel_D 3y agoWind power dropped by only a factor of 3 over the last decade. Furthermore, these reductions in cost have largely stopped. Your linked chart misleadingly just picks the 2009 and 2019 years, and doesn't show the year by year progression. https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=600,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20231209_WBC618.png https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=600,quality=80... The slope has largely flatlined, solar panels aren't getting much cheaper and neither is wind.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoSolar panels have dropped 42% in the last 12 months https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/solar-panel-prices-remain-low-up-two-years-says-industry-exec-2024-03-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/solar-panel-prices-r...
- Manuel_D 3y agoExcept panel prices aren't the only component of solar power cost. There's also installation, maintenance, and energy conversion.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoWhen panels are cheap enough, it becomes cheaper to lay them out inefficiently to massively reduce installation and maintenance and land cost: https://electrek.co/2022/12/12/texas-solar-farm-flat-on-the-ground/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/12/texas-solar-farm-flat-on-the-...
- Manuel_D 3y agoYour article did not mention any reduction in labor. The motivation behind flat mounting was less land use and stabilizing temperature. There's still no serious proposal to reduce costs by 10x let alone 100x. This is just a totally baseless claim
- bryanlarsen 3y agoYou missed the part about robot cleaning? About 70% reduction in installation costs?
- Manuel_D 3y ago> It also says that it uses 70% less cable and needs 70% less trenching and that its system is hurricane proof. This is not nearly the same thing as saying costs were reduced by 70%. I'm very interested in where you read that total installation costs were reduced by 70%