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>I think the one important question is how long china can compete in the race to the bottom. Haha, China can compete in the manufacturing race to the bottom fa

>I think the one important question is how long china can compete in the race to the bottom. Haha, China can compete in the manufacturing race to the bottom far longer than Western companies/nations can stay solvent in that race with all their unions, high wages, pensions, and worker's rights pushing their costs up. To whit, all my mates still working in the EU automotive scene with transferable skills are trying to side hop into other industries since the wage prospects in automotive for the same jobs are getting grim now. EU can't compete with the US on SW innovation and can't compete with China on HW cheapness and manufacturing at scale. It's being squeeze in a pincer movement at both ends and I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come.

constantcrying 3y ago
The EU is going to become a regulatory super power. If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. > I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come. There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. At the same time any government trying to dismantle that system is commiting political suicide and in turn will inevitably destabilize the economy.
- Rinzler89 3y ago
  > If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. >There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? >Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration, while the economic output needed to fund the welfare system has relatively stagnated.
  - constantcrying 3y ago
    >I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. That was sarcasm. >Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? I don't know what people have been saying about Japan. Except they are prognosticating it's decline due to an aging population for a long time. I do believe that this a problem which can be solved by some economic pain and cut backs. >The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration In Germany, as a percentage of GDP, it did somewhat rise though. Absolute welfare spending has doubled over the last 20 years. The only reason it could do this is because the same is true for absolute GDP. The GDP of Germany did massively rise over the last 20 years, clearly it isn't stagnant. If ever it stops growing, then the social security costs will rapidly outpace GDP growth, but that hasn't happened yet. At least, looking at the numbers, I see no evidence. Well, except for a very worrisome 2023.

constantcrying 3y ago

The EU is going to become a regulatory super power. If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. > I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come. There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. At the same time any government trying to dismantle that system is commiting political suicide and in turn will inevitably destabilize the economy.

Rinzler89 3y ago
> If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. >There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? >Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration, while the economic output needed to fund the welfare system has relatively stagnated.
- constantcrying 3y ago
  >I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. That was sarcasm. >Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? I don't know what people have been saying about Japan. Except they are prognosticating it's decline due to an aging population for a long time. I do believe that this a problem which can be solved by some economic pain and cut backs. >The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration In Germany, as a percentage of GDP, it did somewhat rise though. Absolute welfare spending has doubled over the last 20 years. The only reason it could do this is because the same is true for absolute GDP. The GDP of Germany did massively rise over the last 20 years, clearly it isn't stagnant. If ever it stops growing, then the social security costs will rapidly outpace GDP growth, but that hasn't happened yet. At least, looking at the numbers, I see no evidence. Well, except for a very worrisome 2023.