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>Tarifs in Europe would mean a tit-for-tat for German cars in China ruining them. That's why they don't want tarrifs. Yes, but this is just the nature of compe

>Tarifs in Europe would mean a tit-for-tat for German cars in China ruining them. That's why they don't want tarrifs. Yes, but this is just the nature of competition. If they think they couldn't compete, either in China or Europe, they would beg for Tarifs. >What German companies will probably do in Europe is import Chinese EV designs from their partners, and rebadge them locally the same way Renault does with the Dacia Spring. I assume you mean cars not designs of cars? That seems like the thing least useful to import. Yes, if they want/need low costs for their cars they will build and import the budget models from China. If you have seen Chinese EV prices you would know why, they are insanely cheap, even if they are more or less equivalent to European cars of the same brand. But they don't need to rebadge, they just build the actual badges cars and ship them to Europe. I think the one important question is how long china can compete in the race to the bottom. The lower prices are due to many factors, labor cost among those. Surely that will not be sustainable indefinitely.

Rinzler89 3y ago
>I think the one important question is how long china can compete in the race to the bottom. Haha, China can compete in the manufacturing race to the bottom far longer than Western companies/nations can stay solvent in that race with all their unions, high wages, pensions, and worker's rights pushing their costs up. To whit, all my mates still working in the EU automotive scene with transferable skills are trying to side hop into other industries since the wage prospects in automotive for the same jobs are getting grim now. EU can't compete with the US on SW innovation and can't compete with China on HW cheapness and manufacturing at scale. It's being squeeze in a pincer movement at both ends and I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come.
- constantcrying 3y ago
  The EU is going to become a regulatory super power. If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. > I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come. There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. At the same time any government trying to dismantle that system is commiting political suicide and in turn will inevitably destabilize the economy.
  - Rinzler89 3y ago
    > If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. >There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? >Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration, while the economic output needed to fund the welfare system has relatively stagnated.
    - constantcrying 3y ago
      >I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. That was sarcasm. >Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? I don't know what people have been saying about Japan. Except they are prognosticating it's decline due to an aging population for a long time. I do believe that this a problem which can be solved by some economic pain and cut backs. >The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration In Germany, as a percentage of GDP, it did somewhat rise though. Absolute welfare spending has doubled over the last 20 years. The only reason it could do this is because the same is true for absolute GDP. The GDP of Germany did massively rise over the last 20 years, clearly it isn't stagnant. If ever it stops growing, then the social security costs will rapidly outpace GDP growth, but that hasn't happened yet. At least, looking at the numbers, I see no evidence. Well, except for a very worrisome 2023.

Rinzler89 3y ago

>I think the one important question is how long china can compete in the race to the bottom. Haha, China can compete in the manufacturing race to the bottom far longer than Western companies/nations can stay solvent in that race with all their unions, high wages, pensions, and worker's rights pushing their costs up. To whit, all my mates still working in the EU automotive scene with transferable skills are trying to side hop into other industries since the wage prospects in automotive for the same jobs are getting grim now. EU can't compete with the US on SW innovation and can't compete with China on HW cheapness and manufacturing at scale. It's being squeeze in a pincer movement at both ends and I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come.

constantcrying 3y ago
The EU is going to become a regulatory super power. If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. > I fear we'll see more years of economic stagnation to come. There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. At the same time any government trying to dismantle that system is commiting political suicide and in turn will inevitably destabilize the economy.
- Rinzler89 3y ago
  > If you just regulate enough then you don't actually need industry or innovation. I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. >There will never be economic stagnation in a country like Germany. Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? >Without the massive economic benefits of large and highly productive industry, the massive social security system can not be kept afloat. The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration, while the economic output needed to fund the welfare system has relatively stagnated.
  - constantcrying 3y ago
    >I'm not sure if you're sarcastic or not. That was sarcasm. >Why not? People were saying the same about Japan? Or you're sarcastic again? I don't know what people have been saying about Japan. Except they are prognosticating it's decline due to an aging population for a long time. I do believe that this a problem which can be solved by some economic pain and cut backs. >The social security system has seen massive cutbacks in Germany, Sweden, France, Finland, Italy, Spain, etc in the last 20 years or so precisely because the costs have gone up due to ageing population and mass immigration In Germany, as a percentage of GDP, it did somewhat rise though. Absolute welfare spending has doubled over the last 20 years. The only reason it could do this is because the same is true for absolute GDP. The GDP of Germany did massively rise over the last 20 years, clearly it isn't stagnant. If ever it stops growing, then the social security costs will rapidly outpace GDP growth, but that hasn't happened yet. At least, looking at the numbers, I see no evidence. Well, except for a very worrisome 2023.