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In good weather, with remote operators. The national school bus accident rate is 0.01 per 100 million miles traveled, vs 0.06 for commercial aviation and 0.96

In good weather, with remote operators. The national school bus accident rate is 0.01 per 100 million miles traveled, vs 0.06 for commercial aviation and 0.96 for other passenger vehicles. Approximately 9.1 driverless car crashes occur per million miles driven, while it may not always be the driverless car's fault, avoiding accidents is not a one way responsibility. When you consider those driverless cars are only operating in good weather, while school bus drivers operate in most weather conditions while simultaneously dealing with 50+ kids...there is still a very long tail.

elmerfud 3y ago
The school bus isn't a fair comparison but commercial vehicles would be or a limo service commercial vehicles such as taxis would be even the non-commercial passenger vehicles would be a good comparison. The reason why these School bus does not offer a realistic way to compare is because these are highly visible vehicles with lights and a built-in legally binding traffic control device on them. This causes the vehicle to be very visible to all other drivers around them and where that the stop sign can be deployed at any time and that is a traffic control device when it is deployed.
jlmorton 3y ago
You are conflating entirely different statistics. For every stat other than driverless vehicles, you used the fatality rate. For autonomous vehicles, you used the accident rate, and you included all manufacturers and a stat from 3 years ago. The statistics that have been released from Waymo are significantly different: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor...
- nyrikki 3y ago
  Ya I was suckered by a spam site. But the vendor isn't a reliable source either. The latest NTSB info I can find is: 9.1 crashes in driverless vehicles per million vehicle miles driven 4.2 crashes in conventional vehicles per million miles driven But to quote you link: > The second is differences in driving conditions and/or vehicle characteristics. Public human crash data includes all road types, like freeways, where the Waymo Driver currently only operates with an autonomous specialist behind the wheel, as well as various vehicle types from commercial heavy vehicles to passenger and motorcycles. The post I was responding to claimed freeway driving, which always has a safety driver right now. As speeds increase, outcomes become less optimal. And the cars can't simply stop in the middle of the road and wait for a remote driver without putting the occupants at serious risk. There is a lot more work for Waymo to do before they can drive in more conditions and locations. Snow and heavy rain for example. With almost half a million school buses providing transportation service daily they eclipse the number of trips in one month compared to the 7m+ Waymo is claiming.

elmerfud 3y ago

The school bus isn't a fair comparison but commercial vehicles would be or a limo service commercial vehicles such as taxis would be even the non-commercial passenger vehicles would be a good comparison. The reason why these School bus does not offer a realistic way to compare is because these are highly visible vehicles with lights and a built-in legally binding traffic control device on them. This causes the vehicle to be very visible to all other drivers around them and where that the stop sign can be deployed at any time and that is a traffic control device when it is deployed.

jlmorton 3y ago

You are conflating entirely different statistics. For every stat other than driverless vehicles, you used the fatality rate. For autonomous vehicles, you used the accident rate, and you included all manufacturers and a stat from 3 years ago. The statistics that have been released from Waymo are significantly different: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor...

nyrikki 3y ago
Ya I was suckered by a spam site. But the vendor isn't a reliable source either. The latest NTSB info I can find is: 9.1 crashes in driverless vehicles per million vehicle miles driven 4.2 crashes in conventional vehicles per million miles driven But to quote you link: > The second is differences in driving conditions and/or vehicle characteristics. Public human crash data includes all road types, like freeways, where the Waymo Driver currently only operates with an autonomous specialist behind the wheel, as well as various vehicle types from commercial heavy vehicles to passenger and motorcycles. The post I was responding to claimed freeway driving, which always has a safety driver right now. As speeds increase, outcomes become less optimal. And the cars can't simply stop in the middle of the road and wait for a remote driver without putting the occupants at serious risk. There is a lot more work for Waymo to do before they can drive in more conditions and locations. Snow and heavy rain for example. With almost half a million school buses providing transportation service daily they eclipse the number of trips in one month compared to the 7m+ Waymo is claiming.