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Tesla's Musk predicts AI will be smarter than the smartest human next year

5 points by breadwinner 3y ago

jrflowers 3y ago
https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
throwitaway222 3y ago
Tesla's Musk? Why not just write "Elon Musk"
- baxtr 3y ago
  Because you get two clickbait buzzwords for just eight characters?
  - poniko 3y ago
    Sometimes I just wish for a single day without any news about Elon Musk .. it's insaine the amout of space this guy get..
    - throwitaway222 3y ago
      don't disagree there
michelsedgh 3y ago
Almost all of the top models are smarter than 99% of the people already I believe. They speak a lot of languages, and they are pretty proficient in almost all areas. Yes, people can be smarter than the AI in the areas they specialize in, but generally speaking llm’s know all subjects and almost everything else. They are only going to get better while I don’t think we humans will get that much better, maybe in one or two areas but not everything all at once.
- breadwinner 3y ago
  > Almost all of the top models are smarter than 99% of the people Not true. Most humans can learn driving in under a week. How many AI models today can learn driving in under a week, just like a human? None. Until it can, AIs are not smarter than humans.
  - michelsedgh 3y ago
    They can’t understand the world like we do, but on the knowledge scale they know more and they can reason pretty well based on the knowledge. Its not AGI that can do anything generally, but being “smart” means IQ tests and SAT tests and stuff, they can do better than most humans.
    - lesserknowndan 3y ago
      There is no they. There is a just a data structure that can be queried. There is no AI yet at all.
- audunw 3y ago
  If we’re talking about knowing existing facts about the world, absolutely. They’re also better than most of us at creating art (rhymes, poetry, digital paintings, etc) that falls into existing clearly defined patterns. But when it comes to deep creative thinking, inferring new knowledge and very long chains of logical reasoning, I’m not convinced they’re actually anywhere near human intelligence yet. I think we’re missing a key algorithm for true general intelligence. I suspect this algorithm will involve a feedback mechanism that will be incredibly hard to tune and get exactly right. We already see that the relatively simple LLMs we have today can go “crazy” fairly easily if the parameters aren’t tuned quite right. This will get exponentially harder if the AI is undergoing constant self-modification. It’s possible that “AI psychologist” will become a common profession in the future, and I suspect it won’t be significantly easier to make progress in that field than it has been for humans.
  - breadwinner 3y ago
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
WheelsAtLarge 3y ago
What is smarter? If smart is doing infinite calculations at lightning speed then AI passed that decades ago. In many areas, AI is smarter than any individual so saying that AI will be smarter next year means nothing. Let's define the mark that defines smart first.
jqpabc123 3y ago
I predict that by next year, Musk's Tesla still won't be able to produce a car that is smart enough to drive itself.
kazinator 3y ago
If by "smartest human" he means himself, I concur; and it could be as early as Christmas this year, if not Thanksgiving or Halloween.
1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago
No Datadome Javascript: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-teslas-musk-predicts-ai-190932582.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-teslas-musk-predicts-ai-190...

5 points by breadwinner 3y ago

jrflowers 3y ago

https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/

throwitaway222 3y ago

Tesla's Musk? Why not just write "Elon Musk"

baxtr 3y ago
Because you get two clickbait buzzwords for just eight characters?
- poniko 3y ago
  Sometimes I just wish for a single day without any news about Elon Musk .. it's insaine the amout of space this guy get..
  - throwitaway222 3y ago
    don't disagree there

michelsedgh 3y ago

Almost all of the top models are smarter than 99% of the people already I believe. They speak a lot of languages, and they are pretty proficient in almost all areas. Yes, people can be smarter than the AI in the areas they specialize in, but generally speaking llm’s know all subjects and almost everything else. They are only going to get better while I don’t think we humans will get that much better, maybe in one or two areas but not everything all at once.

breadwinner 3y ago
> Almost all of the top models are smarter than 99% of the people Not true. Most humans can learn driving in under a week. How many AI models today can learn driving in under a week, just like a human? None. Until it can, AIs are not smarter than humans.
- michelsedgh 3y ago
  They can’t understand the world like we do, but on the knowledge scale they know more and they can reason pretty well based on the knowledge. Its not AGI that can do anything generally, but being “smart” means IQ tests and SAT tests and stuff, they can do better than most humans.
  - lesserknowndan 3y ago
    There is no they. There is a just a data structure that can be queried. There is no AI yet at all.
audunw 3y ago
If we’re talking about knowing existing facts about the world, absolutely. They’re also better than most of us at creating art (rhymes, poetry, digital paintings, etc) that falls into existing clearly defined patterns. But when it comes to deep creative thinking, inferring new knowledge and very long chains of logical reasoning, I’m not convinced they’re actually anywhere near human intelligence yet. I think we’re missing a key algorithm for true general intelligence. I suspect this algorithm will involve a feedback mechanism that will be incredibly hard to tune and get exactly right. We already see that the relatively simple LLMs we have today can go “crazy” fairly easily if the parameters aren’t tuned quite right. This will get exponentially harder if the AI is undergoing constant self-modification. It’s possible that “AI psychologist” will become a common profession in the future, and I suspect it won’t be significantly easier to make progress in that field than it has been for humans.
- breadwinner 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

WheelsAtLarge 3y ago

What is smarter? If smart is doing infinite calculations at lightning speed then AI passed that decades ago. In many areas, AI is smarter than any individual so saying that AI will be smarter next year means nothing. Let's define the mark that defines smart first.

jqpabc123 3y ago

I predict that by next year, Musk's Tesla still won't be able to produce a car that is smart enough to drive itself.

kazinator 3y ago

If by "smartest human" he means himself, I concur; and it could be as early as Christmas this year, if not Thanksgiving or Halloween.

1vuio0pswjnm7 3y ago

No Datadome Javascript: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-teslas-musk-predicts-ai-190932582.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-teslas-musk-predicts-ai-190...