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I’m now of the age where I’ve seen several of these books predicting the decline of America/Europe/the West/the market/Capitalism, or the inevitable rise of Ame

I’m now of the age where I’ve seen several of these books predicting the decline of America/Europe/the West/the market/Capitalism, or the inevitable rise of America/Europe/Japan/China/the market/capitalism. They all fall apart by making linear predictions of short term trends and ignoring regression to the mean. I’m not saying things don’t change or that some trends can’t be predicted, but it is always more complicated than the predictions and the real world throws up lots of black swans.

spxneo 3y ago
your view is definitely outdated by about 20+ years and traveling recently made me aware of how far behind the West is and how deeply ingrained Western exceptionalism is in the psyche here preventing them from seeing reality with objectivity. East Asian cities are far more peaceful, safe, and advanced than any north american/europe counterpart. Much of the infrastructure in the latter are outdated, old, rustic even as the historical look & feel triumphs over efficiency. Whereas cities like Singapore blows backward cities like Vancouver out of the water on civic report card. Even in cities widely marketed as a desirable "western liberal progressive bastions" are filled with corruption, ideological drives from special interest groups (ex. NIMBY/YIMBY), that makes it impossible for any sort of progress to happen at the rate that is beneficial to the citizens. Especially now we had the pendulum of compassion swing so far towards the left to the point of ridiculousness (ex. math is racist, 1x1=2) that everybody is so worried about losing their jobs about going against the narrative of their employers that they can't/won't introduce homeostasis when the equilibrium is knocked off. It's only NOW that this pendulum is swinging to the far right but extreme swings are not what produces peaceful progressive societies, they produce violence because of the absurdities that followers believe about themselves to support whatever narrative is being disseminated through their favourite echo chambers. Most of the west's rich (double to five digit millionaires) are sending their offsprings to Singapore, not Paris or Berlin.
- johngossman 3y ago
  I love Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul. You seem to have projected a lot onto my comment about books making broad predictions about history.
  - spxneo 3y ago
    What about the book 1984? fahrenheit 451? Both accurately predicted the rise of oppressive society that attempts to eliminate all sources of complexity, contradiction, and confusion to ensure uncomplicated happiness for all its citizens by making them believe excitement is happiness and chaos, boredom and order is oppressive (ironically).
    - johngossman 3y ago
      Yes, because the west is absolutely a totalitarian dictatorship where books are burned. I love dystopian literature and sci-fi authors have sometimes done a better job of predicting the future than the academics and journalists, but neither of those books predicted the present. In fact, both were describing the past: 1984 is about Stalin; 451 is about McCarthy. If anything, you’re describing Brave New World. We don’t live in that future either.
- gaadd33 3y ago
  Would you say that applies across the board or just for top Alpha level cities? Do people choose Manila over Vancouver? Or Jakarta over NYC?
  - johngossman 3y ago
    All these surveys are sketchy. Methodology is all over the map, and in some cases influenced by marketing. However, if you keep all that in mind, summary here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_quality_of_life_indices https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_quality_of_life_indices Wikipedia also has some data about immigration to Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore My dad was a demographer. There’s lots of demographic data, but it’s really hard to analyze. Migration is influenced as much (in many cases more) by policy than by personal preference.
- simonblack 3y ago
  East Asian cities are far more peaceful, safe, and advanced than any north american/europe counterpart. Not just East Asian. In West Asian cities too, things are far more upmarket. The United Arab Emirates, for example, have cities that are far and away better in most respects than Western cities. Cleaner, tidier, more advanced buildings, bigger shopping centres, etc.
johngossman 3y ago
To be fair, I’m reading “The New Leviathans” by Gray right now. It includes the ideas of Turchin in its analysis of the “decline of liberalism” and I’m intrigued (and concerned) by the arguments. But I read “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” when in came out in 1987, found it convincing, and yet practically everything it predicted went wrong within 5 years.

spxneo 3y ago

your view is definitely outdated by about 20+ years and traveling recently made me aware of how far behind the West is and how deeply ingrained Western exceptionalism is in the psyche here preventing them from seeing reality with objectivity. East Asian cities are far more peaceful, safe, and advanced than any north american/europe counterpart. Much of the infrastructure in the latter are outdated, old, rustic even as the historical look & feel triumphs over efficiency. Whereas cities like Singapore blows backward cities like Vancouver out of the water on civic report card. Even in cities widely marketed as a desirable "western liberal progressive bastions" are filled with corruption, ideological drives from special interest groups (ex. NIMBY/YIMBY), that makes it impossible for any sort of progress to happen at the rate that is beneficial to the citizens. Especially now we had the pendulum of compassion swing so far towards the left to the point of ridiculousness (ex. math is racist, 1x1=2) that everybody is so worried about losing their jobs about going against the narrative of their employers that they can't/won't introduce homeostasis when the equilibrium is knocked off. It's only NOW that this pendulum is swinging to the far right but extreme swings are not what produces peaceful progressive societies, they produce violence because of the absurdities that followers believe about themselves to support whatever narrative is being disseminated through their favourite echo chambers. Most of the west's rich (double to five digit millionaires) are sending their offsprings to Singapore, not Paris or Berlin.

johngossman 3y ago
I love Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul. You seem to have projected a lot onto my comment about books making broad predictions about history.
- spxneo 3y ago
  What about the book 1984? fahrenheit 451? Both accurately predicted the rise of oppressive society that attempts to eliminate all sources of complexity, contradiction, and confusion to ensure uncomplicated happiness for all its citizens by making them believe excitement is happiness and chaos, boredom and order is oppressive (ironically).
  - johngossman 3y ago
    Yes, because the west is absolutely a totalitarian dictatorship where books are burned. I love dystopian literature and sci-fi authors have sometimes done a better job of predicting the future than the academics and journalists, but neither of those books predicted the present. In fact, both were describing the past: 1984 is about Stalin; 451 is about McCarthy. If anything, you’re describing Brave New World. We don’t live in that future either.
gaadd33 3y ago
Would you say that applies across the board or just for top Alpha level cities? Do people choose Manila over Vancouver? Or Jakarta over NYC?
- johngossman 3y ago
  All these surveys are sketchy. Methodology is all over the map, and in some cases influenced by marketing. However, if you keep all that in mind, summary here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_quality_of_life_indices https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_quality_of_life_indices Wikipedia also has some data about immigration to Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore My dad was a demographer. There’s lots of demographic data, but it’s really hard to analyze. Migration is influenced as much (in many cases more) by policy than by personal preference.
simonblack 3y ago
East Asian cities are far more peaceful, safe, and advanced than any north american/europe counterpart. Not just East Asian. In West Asian cities too, things are far more upmarket. The United Arab Emirates, for example, have cities that are far and away better in most respects than Western cities. Cleaner, tidier, more advanced buildings, bigger shopping centres, etc.

johngossman 3y ago

To be fair, I’m reading “The New Leviathans” by Gray right now. It includes the ideas of Turchin in its analysis of the “decline of liberalism” and I’m intrigued (and concerned) by the arguments. But I read “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” when in came out in 1987, found it convincing, and yet practically everything it predicted went wrong within 5 years.