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The bus factor is priced in, as is the assumption that Facebook will dramatically increase its revenue in the long run. If Facebook would not grow anymore, the
by netrus 14y ago
The bus factor is priced in, as is the assumption that Facebook will dramatically increase its revenue in the long run. If Facebook would not grow anymore, the stock would instantly collapse.
- joering2 14y agonetrus, I don't think it works like that. You just described a crystal ball. You sure they know everything that is in this stock? Would there be a justify reason behind something called "Stock exchange" if everyone would know everything in the future? And what do you mean by instantly? Like the first day or first year, or what? because as far as I remember everywhere I talked with bankers, everyone from teen that just turned 18 to a 95 years old grandpa withdrawing last savings were going to buy Facebook stock. But this is not what Friday has showed to us. 2 things; either: a) entire world change its mind overnight (I spoke with banker as late as last Thursday), or b) there was so much selling happening, that if the world was buying, it wasn't just enough to build demand and push the stock up. I go with gate #2, considering how much underwriters were willing to buildup on $38. A $300,000,000 worth dam!! I guarantee you, plenty of big fish is shitting in pants right now. To many of them this weekend, before Monday opening, is not a chilling out and relaxing time. I think by next Friday you will see some spectacular action on this stock. Further, I think that Zynga, Groupon, Zillow, Linkedin, ZipCar, Pandora and others -- they are all assuming dramatically increase in revenue. But yet they are all below (some significant like Groupon or Zynga) their IPO price.