4 ms·

> Soon enough new ones will spring up to take their place 10 new jobs cannot be sufficient to replace 100 replaced jobs. What are other 90 going to do?

paxys 3y ago
Who says it will be 10 new jobs? Why not a thousand? Or a million? Did the world end when weavers lost their jobs because of automated looms or elevator operators lost their job because of buttons? Just like all the times before, we will figure it out. The only thing that will make the outcome worse is forced government action based on a few loud voices and populist demands.
- TFYS 3y ago
  The closer to human abilities AI gets, the less space there will be for new jobs to appear. Just because new jobs appeared before doesn't mean they always will. It does make sense to slow down this progress if we don't have answers to what happens if jobs start disappearing faster than we can replace them.
  - paxys 3y ago
    Who is going to "slow down this progress"? Some mythical world government? The Illuminati? You can't legislate human thought and human ingenuity. Progress is happening, whether you like it or not. You either embrace it or get left behind.
    - TFYS 3y ago
      We can't stop it, but if the leading countries regulate it progress will be slower.
      - paxys 3y ago
        If one major economy regulates and slows down AI the rest of them will ramp up their investment and gain a competitive edge. The jobs will be gone regardless, just this time to an AI company in China or India rather than the USA. That's how the world works.
- fragmede 3y ago
  When the robots can fix themselves, then no new jobs need be created to fix the robots. Then that time it'll be different. We're at the cusp of that. I can ask openinterpreter to fix python on my computer for me. it's only a matter of time before robotics catches up.
mechagodzilla 3y ago
We find ourselves, in 2024, with unemployment levels (at least in the US) at near all-time lows. This is after centuries of mechanization and automation, decades of the computer and internet revolutions (which have barely any steam left, compared to the previuous ~70 years of rapid improvement), and with a global demographic shift that will actually require significant productivity improvements (as in "more output per worker") just to maintain existing quality of life with an increasingly aged population. China is probably losing 1M+ workers a year for the foreseeable future (their workforce actually peaked in 2015!). LLM-style AI is going to cause such a tidal wave of garbage that it's not even obvious to me that it will be a net increase to productivity at all, let alone make us all so productive that there will be a massive unemployment crisis. It's definitely going to affect some specific jobs, just the way other jobs have come and gone for centuries now, but I'm not convinced it will improve productivity as much as we actually need it to.
- gentleman11 3y ago
  Yeah. A lot of people I know even have 2-3 jobs! Even combined, they don’t pay well enough to build retirement savings. It’s easy to find work when you’re being paid less than minimum wage as a contractor at 2-3 companies
  - luckman212 3y ago
    There's always OnlyFans. Wait, what's that you say? AI can make hyper-realistic porn now too? We're doomed.

paxys 3y ago

Who says it will be 10 new jobs? Why not a thousand? Or a million? Did the world end when weavers lost their jobs because of automated looms or elevator operators lost their job because of buttons? Just like all the times before, we will figure it out. The only thing that will make the outcome worse is forced government action based on a few loud voices and populist demands.

TFYS 3y ago
The closer to human abilities AI gets, the less space there will be for new jobs to appear. Just because new jobs appeared before doesn't mean they always will. It does make sense to slow down this progress if we don't have answers to what happens if jobs start disappearing faster than we can replace them.
- paxys 3y ago
  Who is going to "slow down this progress"? Some mythical world government? The Illuminati? You can't legislate human thought and human ingenuity. Progress is happening, whether you like it or not. You either embrace it or get left behind.
  - TFYS 3y ago
    We can't stop it, but if the leading countries regulate it progress will be slower.
    - paxys 3y ago
      If one major economy regulates and slows down AI the rest of them will ramp up their investment and gain a competitive edge. The jobs will be gone regardless, just this time to an AI company in China or India rather than the USA. That's how the world works.
fragmede 3y ago
When the robots can fix themselves, then no new jobs need be created to fix the robots. Then that time it'll be different. We're at the cusp of that. I can ask openinterpreter to fix python on my computer for me. it's only a matter of time before robotics catches up.

mechagodzilla 3y ago

We find ourselves, in 2024, with unemployment levels (at least in the US) at near all-time lows. This is after centuries of mechanization and automation, decades of the computer and internet revolutions (which have barely any steam left, compared to the previuous ~70 years of rapid improvement), and with a global demographic shift that will actually require significant productivity improvements (as in "more output per worker") just to maintain existing quality of life with an increasingly aged population. China is probably losing 1M+ workers a year for the foreseeable future (their workforce actually peaked in 2015!). LLM-style AI is going to cause such a tidal wave of garbage that it's not even obvious to me that it will be a net increase to productivity at all, let alone make us all so productive that there will be a massive unemployment crisis. It's definitely going to affect some specific jobs, just the way other jobs have come and gone for centuries now, but I'm not convinced it will improve productivity as much as we actually need it to.

gentleman11 3y ago
Yeah. A lot of people I know even have 2-3 jobs! Even combined, they don’t pay well enough to build retirement savings. It’s easy to find work when you’re being paid less than minimum wage as a contractor at 2-3 companies
- luckman212 3y ago
  There's always OnlyFans. Wait, what's that you say? AI can make hyper-realistic porn now too? We're doomed.