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I don’t ”believe” in math, I can prove it. If you don’t sell at break even, it’s not a martingale, so the Law doesn’t apply.

• bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
  You can prove mathematical propositions, you obviously can't make truthful conclusions about insurance. And that's really the crucial parts. Anyone can make prove mathematical statements. Reminds of the guy who lost his keys in the darkness and was looking for the keys under the lamp because that's where he can see. Likewise, you're using your tools and hoping that the tools have some connection to real life. You sound like one of those "that's all good in practice but it would never work in theory" type of people.
  • tomp 2y ago
    The real world is much more complicated that mathematical models. But if your business goes bankrupt with probability 100% with even a simplified mathematical model, I wouldn't want to invest in it.