Edit - also, you should go and look up the rates of spontaneous remission for colorectal cancer (e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10273780/ ht

Edit - also, you should go and look up the rates of spontaneous remission for colorectal cancer (e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10273780/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10273780/). We're talking about 12 patients with stage 2/3 colorectal cancer, in remission with the treatment alone. What's really cool is that papers tend to have sections where they discuss the statistics so you can use real numbers. Their null hypothesis was a 25% response rate. "This decision rule would result in a type I error rate of 6% if 25% of the patients had an overall response and would provide the study with 84% power if 50% had an overall response. The null hypothesis was established on the basis of a study by Seligmann et al., in which the observed response to chemotherapy among patients with mismatch repair–deficient rectal cancers was 7% (8 of 115 patients)."