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I’m not surprised at the lack of enlightening conversation on this topic. Like, yeah, I get it, China is an authoritarian surveillance state. We all know that.

by dangus 3y ago

I’m not surprised at the lack of enlightening conversation on this topic. Like, yeah, I get it, China is an authoritarian surveillance state. We all know that. Just don’t be surprised when China’s public and private enterprises make strides to curb their dependence on Western hardware and software. Don’t be surprised when they catch up quickly like they have in so many industries. “China will never make globally competitive cars” “China will never be able to make its own heavy industry products like jets and trains” “China will never be able design its own chips” “China can’t write good software” Don’t underestimate your rival.

Kalanos 3y ago
Many groundbreaking research papers are written by researchers at Chinese institutes
r14c 3y ago
But accurately estimating your rival undermines the load-bearing assumption of total superiority. Nobody can rival the greatest nation on earth.
realusername 3y ago
Don't overestimate them either, there's a single developed dictatorship on earth and it's the city state of Singapore. There's some good reasons behind that and I have a feeling they are discovering some of those paradox at the moment.
- dangus 3y ago
  Just one? What about Turkey? Saudi Arabia? UAE? Qatar? Russia? You could probably include Vietnam and Jordan.
  - snowpid 3y ago
    Singapore is the only well government country on your list. Nobody wants to live in one of these countries. Singapore has its audience.
    - dangus 3y ago
      But now you’re moving goal posts. We were talking “developed” now we are talking “places where people want to live.” Even if I go with your new goal posts that in itself a dubious…for example, Dubai’s population is over 80% expatriates. Seems like people want to live there.
      - snowpid 3y ago
        Dubai is a good counter example, yes. In Turkey for example are just leaving people, Russia lost 1 million people last year. Also developed seems for you a very low bar then? Russia is a very poor country,not very developed.
        dangus 3y ago
        Russia has one of the highest income inequality rates of developed countries and major regional disparities but it is still by definition a developed country. Its real GDP per capita of $27,500 is considered wealthy on a global scale. That number is comparable to Spain. Russia has an HDI of >.800 which is classified as “very high.” This number is higher than China, India, and Brazil. People in Russia generally aren’t lacking access to improved sanitation. Russia has compulsory education and a full literacy rate. Don’t forget that this is a country that has been industrialized for a long time. This is a country among a very short list that can do things like get rockets into space and build jet aircraft engines. Even manufacturing powerhouse China has to import engines and avionics for its C919 aircraft. The Tu-214 uses Russian avionics and engines. Russia or Turkey wouldn’t be my choice of place to live but they are developed.
        snowpid 3y ago
        thank you and ok, I see you argument. I am astonished that such poor countries are counted as developed. I am asking myself how bad are non developed countries.
  - realusername 3y ago
    None of those are developed and still have a large part of the country undeveloped. The UAE is probably the closest one from your list but you'd have to basically ignore the large Indian diaspora which isn't treated very well to make it fit.
corimaith 3y ago
From my observation, China's most prominent successes (EVs, Drones, etc) have been through emerging technologies where established players have neglected. I believe the "Blue Ocean Strategy" was considered as one of the most influential books by the CCP, and they've executed that strategy well. But in terms of "red oceans", I don't really see China having any special advantages over the already heavy competition beyond manafacturing, after all they never did make a globally competitive ICE car, it was through leapfrogging with EVs that they succeeded. If we talk about OS here, domestically they can do whatever, but I don't see why it wouldn't just be another competitor in a long list of competitors.
- dangus 3y ago
  I think the red oceans are just longer term pieces of the puzzle. The blue ocean opportunities were quick wins. By the way, Chinese companies own multiple Western ICE car manufacturers. Those manufacturers (Volvo, Lotus, Polestar) are transitioning to EVs or only make EVs anyway. Here’s an example on the software side: what happens if the Chinese smartphone players drop Android? Let’s say Xiaomi and Huawei now only come with a Chinese OS which can run Android apps as a stopgap, replacing Google Play with their own App Store. Those two brands represent 20% of European cell phone marketshare. Now imagine this Chinese OS gives Samsung a better arrangement than Google. Overnight, Google is basically out of the picture. That’s right, they only have to convince one phone manufacturer who already depends on a third party company for their OS to switch, and the instant they do so they win over more than half of the European smartphone market. https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe
deleted 3y ago
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by dangus 3y ago

Kalanos 3y ago

Many groundbreaking research papers are written by researchers at Chinese institutes

r14c 3y ago

But accurately estimating your rival undermines the load-bearing assumption of total superiority. Nobody can rival the greatest nation on earth.

realusername 3y ago

Don't overestimate them either, there's a single developed dictatorship on earth and it's the city state of Singapore. There's some good reasons behind that and I have a feeling they are discovering some of those paradox at the moment.

dangus 3y ago
Just one? What about Turkey? Saudi Arabia? UAE? Qatar? Russia? You could probably include Vietnam and Jordan.
- snowpid 3y ago
  Singapore is the only well government country on your list. Nobody wants to live in one of these countries. Singapore has its audience.
  - dangus 3y ago
    But now you’re moving goal posts. We were talking “developed” now we are talking “places where people want to live.” Even if I go with your new goal posts that in itself a dubious…for example, Dubai’s population is over 80% expatriates. Seems like people want to live there.
    - snowpid 3y ago
      Dubai is a good counter example, yes. In Turkey for example are just leaving people, Russia lost 1 million people last year. Also developed seems for you a very low bar then? Russia is a very poor country,not very developed.
      - dangus 3y ago
        Russia has one of the highest income inequality rates of developed countries and major regional disparities but it is still by definition a developed country. Its real GDP per capita of $27,500 is considered wealthy on a global scale. That number is comparable to Spain. Russia has an HDI of >.800 which is classified as “very high.” This number is higher than China, India, and Brazil. People in Russia generally aren’t lacking access to improved sanitation. Russia has compulsory education and a full literacy rate. Don’t forget that this is a country that has been industrialized for a long time. This is a country among a very short list that can do things like get rockets into space and build jet aircraft engines. Even manufacturing powerhouse China has to import engines and avionics for its C919 aircraft. The Tu-214 uses Russian avionics and engines. Russia or Turkey wouldn’t be my choice of place to live but they are developed.
        snowpid 3y ago
        thank you and ok, I see you argument. I am astonished that such poor countries are counted as developed. I am asking myself how bad are non developed countries.
- realusername 3y ago
  None of those are developed and still have a large part of the country undeveloped. The UAE is probably the closest one from your list but you'd have to basically ignore the large Indian diaspora which isn't treated very well to make it fit.

corimaith 3y ago

From my observation, China's most prominent successes (EVs, Drones, etc) have been through emerging technologies where established players have neglected. I believe the "Blue Ocean Strategy" was considered as one of the most influential books by the CCP, and they've executed that strategy well. But in terms of "red oceans", I don't really see China having any special advantages over the already heavy competition beyond manafacturing, after all they never did make a globally competitive ICE car, it was through leapfrogging with EVs that they succeeded. If we talk about OS here, domestically they can do whatever, but I don't see why it wouldn't just be another competitor in a long list of competitors.

dangus 3y ago
I think the red oceans are just longer term pieces of the puzzle. The blue ocean opportunities were quick wins. By the way, Chinese companies own multiple Western ICE car manufacturers. Those manufacturers (Volvo, Lotus, Polestar) are transitioning to EVs or only make EVs anyway. Here’s an example on the software side: what happens if the Chinese smartphone players drop Android? Let’s say Xiaomi and Huawei now only come with a Chinese OS which can run Android apps as a stopgap, replacing Google Play with their own App Store. Those two brands represent 20% of European cell phone marketshare. Now imagine this Chinese OS gives Samsung a better arrangement than Google. Overnight, Google is basically out of the picture. That’s right, they only have to convince one phone manufacturer who already depends on a third party company for their OS to switch, and the instant they do so they win over more than half of the European smartphone market. https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe

deleted 3y ago

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