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Tablets shouldn't be discounted, but I can't see how they'll change more peoples' lives more than automated driving. In terms of your points. (I'm assuming tab
by usaar333 14y ago
Tablets shouldn't be discounted, but I can't see how they'll change more peoples' lives more than automated driving.
In terms of your points. (I'm assuming tablet = pad type of computer such as ipad, kindle, etc.):
1. Cheaper: Is this true compared to an ultra-low cost laptop, such as the OLPC X 1.75? They might have less components (no keyboard/mouse/touchpad), but capacitive touch screens aren't cheap (I believe $40 in the ipad2). So unless pricing closes in on keyboards (which go for around $10?), I see tablets as being pricier than laptops.
2/3. Agreed
4. Again, see #1. power consumption for low-end laptops is on-par with a tablet if not below. (XO 1.75 is 2W. XO-3 claims 1W).
5. Why is this so much different than a windows program?
So yes, I agree that tablets change things, but how much do they fundamentally improve a person's life? I agree some percentage of people will be taken from "not having a computer" to "having a computer/using it better", but in the end the tablet is just a lighter laptop you can use standing up and with friends easier. So ya, there's benefit, but world changing? I'd argue the laptop was just as, if not more, revolutionary than pad-formatted computers.
On the other hand, I feel automated cars are truly revolutionary. From the point of view of America:
1. 1% of Americans will die in a car crash and countless more will be injured. Automated systems will be an order of magnitude better than human drivers, so we'll see thousands of lives saved a year.
2. Without having to pay for a taxi driver or for expensive liability insurance, the price of a taxi will at least halve. At this point, there is less incentive to own cars and car ownership rate plummets, resulting in far fewer cars being produced (and cars being utilized at much higher rates). (I'm summarizing this famous post: https://plus.google.com/103583939320326217147/posts/TpN1g1oSVbN https://plus.google.com/103583939320326217147/posts/TpN1g1oS...)
2a. Americans spend something like $300billion a year on new cars. Automated driving will save >$100B (1% of economy) annually.
3. Again, automated cars drive much better and can operate in situations too dangerous for humans (extremely close driving). With a good communication network, congestion operation will be much more efficient, leading to far less traffic and a reduced need to build more roads.
3a. Auto insurance industry a fraction of its original size. $150B+ savings
4. Driving jobs (taxi, truck) eliminated. That's over 4 million jobs. (2% of the workforce). Incredibly significant and another $100B in economic savings (of course assuming successful redirection to other economically productive activities).
Bottom line: In addition to regaining substantial time lost driving, America alone will save at least $350B a year. That's 2.5% of US GDP (and 25% of transportation gdp).
- zeroonetwothree 14y agoWe spend something like 5-10% of our time driving. Automated driving would allow us to save that and use it for something useful. Not many innovations have saved people that much time.
- pyre 14y agoYou'll still be sitting in the car during that time (these are driverless cars, not personal teleporters), so I wager that the extra time will be spent on Angry Birds or watching TV on your phone.
- usaar333 14y agoTrue, you'll see some reduction in time though: 1. Less congestion 2. No need to find parking
- ralfn 14y ago> I'd argue the laptop was just as, if not more, revolutionary than pad-formatted computers. Wouldnt it be more fair to say that the tablets finally do, what they promised us laptops would do? I think the change to touch is quite radical, and that because all the ui stuff had to be reinvented, we were able to break away from all the desktop paradigmas. These mobile OSes are fundamentally different: they allow a person to run managed untrusted applications, while minimizing battery life and maximizing security. This is a complete opposite of a desktop OS that is meant to run trusted applications with as much power, access and performance as possible. The OLPC was great, but the tablets did make that compromize the new default for everybody. Then again, i fully agree that self driving vehicles are more disruptive.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]