4 ms·

Now let's ask: do these jobs pay, and what is the cost of housing, energy and healthcare doing? Remember: anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not co

Now let's ask: do these jobs pay, and what is the cost of housing, energy and healthcare doing? Remember: anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed!

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> do these jobs pay Real wages are up, so yes. (The laggards are technology jobs and some zip codes.) > anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed There are multiple unemployment statistics collected. It’s trivial to use the metric that does or doesn’t include that worker.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
3.6M Boomers retire per year, 10k per day. 1.8M citizens over the age of 55 die every year, half of which are in the labor force. 4M potential workers turn 18 per year. This is a demographics story, which the Fed is powerless against (from a labor perspective). This labor “shortage” will last at least a decade, if not longer. It’s also why the Fed is making peace with the neutral rate being closer to 2.5-3%, but they can’t give up yet trying to get to 2% without losing credibility. Powell said they’d cut if the labor market saw signs of weakness, which differs from previous signaling (but is likely a result of discussions behind closed doors, with the Fed coming to a conclusion to focus on full employment over getting control of the last of price instability, for whatever reason). With that said, central banks have reached terminal rates, and some have started cutting already (Switzerland). The Fed will potentially cut soon, stoking labor uptake. Maybe this pulls more workers in, further pushing down unemployment. Maybe this causes retirements to increase beyond expectations (due to equity re-pricing upward when rates drop, bolstering retirement account balances). We are in uncharted territory.
- nojvek 3y ago
  There’s also plenty of immigration. Not buying that this is driven due to labor population reduction. Don’t you have sources? Would love to read.
  - klooney 3y ago
    The immigration is mostly unauthorized and down-market. H1B and green cards, the kind of immigrants who compete with HN denizens, has remained statically capped.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/without-immigrants-us-working-age-population-would-shrink https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/withou... | https://archive.today/iZHvg https://archive.today/iZHvg
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230... > First, we are seeing profound changes in the labour market and the nature of work. > Labour markets are historically tight across advanced economies – and not only due to strong labour demand after the pandemic. In some economies, workers who left the labour force have not fully returned, be it due to sickness or changing preferences. In others, like the euro area, employment is at record highs, but people are working fewer hours on average.

Now let's ask: do these jobs pay, and what is the cost of housing, energy and healthcare doing? Remember: anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed!

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> do these jobs pay Real wages are up, so yes. (The laggards are technology jobs and some zip codes.) > anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed There are multiple unemployment statistics collected. It’s trivial to use the metric that does or doesn’t include that worker.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

3.6M Boomers retire per year, 10k per day. 1.8M citizens over the age of 55 die every year, half of which are in the labor force. 4M potential workers turn 18 per year. This is a demographics story, which the Fed is powerless against (from a labor perspective). This labor “shortage” will last at least a decade, if not longer. It’s also why the Fed is making peace with the neutral rate being closer to 2.5-3%, but they can’t give up yet trying to get to 2% without losing credibility. Powell said they’d cut if the labor market saw signs of weakness, which differs from previous signaling (but is likely a result of discussions behind closed doors, with the Fed coming to a conclusion to focus on full employment over getting control of the last of price instability, for whatever reason). With that said, central banks have reached terminal rates, and some have started cutting already (Switzerland). The Fed will potentially cut soon, stoking labor uptake. Maybe this pulls more workers in, further pushing down unemployment. Maybe this causes retirements to increase beyond expectations (due to equity re-pricing upward when rates drop, bolstering retirement account balances). We are in uncharted territory.

nojvek 3y ago
There’s also plenty of immigration. Not buying that this is driven due to labor population reduction. Don’t you have sources? Would love to read.
- klooney 3y ago
  The immigration is mostly unauthorized and down-market. H1B and green cards, the kind of immigrants who compete with HN denizens, has remained statically capped.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/without-immigrants-us-working-age-population-would-shrink https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/withou... | https://archive.today/iZHvg https://archive.today/iZHvg
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230... > First, we are seeing profound changes in the labour market and the nature of work. > Labour markets are historically tight across advanced economies – and not only due to strong labour demand after the pandemic. In some economies, workers who left the labour force have not fully returned, be it due to sickness or changing preferences. In others, like the euro area, employment is at record highs, but people are working fewer hours on average.