6 ms·

March job growth zoomed: payrolls jumped by 303,000, unemployment drops to 3.8%

36 points by MilnerRoute 3y ago

HarryHirsch 3y ago
Now let's ask: do these jobs pay, and what is the cost of housing, energy and healthcare doing? Remember: anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed!
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > do these jobs pay Real wages are up, so yes. (The laggards are technology jobs and some zip codes.) > anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed There are multiple unemployment statistics collected. It’s trivial to use the metric that does or doesn’t include that worker.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  3.6M Boomers retire per year, 10k per day. 1.8M citizens over the age of 55 die every year, half of which are in the labor force. 4M potential workers turn 18 per year. This is a demographics story, which the Fed is powerless against (from a labor perspective). This labor “shortage” will last at least a decade, if not longer. It’s also why the Fed is making peace with the neutral rate being closer to 2.5-3%, but they can’t give up yet trying to get to 2% without losing credibility. Powell said they’d cut if the labor market saw signs of weakness, which differs from previous signaling (but is likely a result of discussions behind closed doors, with the Fed coming to a conclusion to focus on full employment over getting control of the last of price instability, for whatever reason). With that said, central banks have reached terminal rates, and some have started cutting already (Switzerland). The Fed will potentially cut soon, stoking labor uptake. Maybe this pulls more workers in, further pushing down unemployment. Maybe this causes retirements to increase beyond expectations (due to equity re-pricing upward when rates drop, bolstering retirement account balances). We are in uncharted territory.
  - nojvek 3y ago
    There’s also plenty of immigration. Not buying that this is driven due to labor population reduction. Don’t you have sources? Would love to read.
    - klooney 3y ago
      The immigration is mostly unauthorized and down-market. H1B and green cards, the kind of immigrants who compete with HN denizens, has remained statically capped.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/without-immigrants-us-working-age-population-would-shrink https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/withou... | https://archive.today/iZHvg https://archive.today/iZHvg
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230... > First, we are seeing profound changes in the labour market and the nature of work. > Labour markets are historically tight across advanced economies – and not only due to strong labour demand after the pandemic. In some economies, workers who left the labour force have not fully returned, be it due to sickness or changing preferences. In others, like the euro area, employment is at record highs, but people are working fewer hours on average.
oldpersonintx 3y ago
[dead]
impish9208 3y ago
Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39941608 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39941608
- dpflan 3y ago
  This links to the actual BLS notification, so thanks for referring to this post! Here is the BLS link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_04052024.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_04052024.ht...
decremental 3y ago
[dead]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ipaddr 3y ago
I noticed recruiter spam lately not surprised. Surprised companies all stopped hiring and started back at the same time. Is there a newsletter everyone is following.
- exac 3y ago
  Likely that their Q2 budgets get approved around the same time.
- science4sail 3y ago
  I imagine that an interesting sociological topic could be fashion trends and mass hysteria among business elites.
- jasonboyd 3y ago
  I commented to my wife this past week that I was suddenly contacted by multiple recruiters, seemingly out of nowhere. It had been many many months prior since that had happened.
readthenotes1 3y ago
One out of four of those jobs were government jobs. Hooray!? There is also the likelihood that these numbers will get corrected downwards at has almost every month lately
- MilStdJunkie 3y ago
  Defense jobs have gotten goosed in the nuts, too. I'm getting dinged every few hours this week. I know, I know, first world problem, but it's a nice change.
- lgleason 3y ago
  Exactly!
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- bandyaboot 3y ago
  232k would also be a pretty solid number.
lgleason 3y ago
"Health care led with 72,000 new jobs, followed by government (71,000), leisure and hospitality (49,000), and construction (39,000)." An increase in government employment is not real growth. Healthcare growth is also probably at minimum 50% driven by an increase in government spending on entitlements.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- bandyaboot 3y ago
  > Healthcare growth is also probably at minimum 50% driven by an increase in government spending on entitlements. Before suggesting 50% is the minimum, perhaps start with some shred of evidence that it’s a significant factor at all?

36 points by MilnerRoute 3y ago

Now let's ask: do these jobs pay, and what is the cost of housing, energy and healthcare doing? Remember: anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed!

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> do these jobs pay Real wages are up, so yes. (The laggards are technology jobs and some zip codes.) > anyone who drives an hour a month for Lyft does not count as unemployed There are multiple unemployment statistics collected. It’s trivial to use the metric that does or doesn’t include that worker.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
3.6M Boomers retire per year, 10k per day. 1.8M citizens over the age of 55 die every year, half of which are in the labor force. 4M potential workers turn 18 per year. This is a demographics story, which the Fed is powerless against (from a labor perspective). This labor “shortage” will last at least a decade, if not longer. It’s also why the Fed is making peace with the neutral rate being closer to 2.5-3%, but they can’t give up yet trying to get to 2% without losing credibility. Powell said they’d cut if the labor market saw signs of weakness, which differs from previous signaling (but is likely a result of discussions behind closed doors, with the Fed coming to a conclusion to focus on full employment over getting control of the last of price instability, for whatever reason). With that said, central banks have reached terminal rates, and some have started cutting already (Switzerland). The Fed will potentially cut soon, stoking labor uptake. Maybe this pulls more workers in, further pushing down unemployment. Maybe this causes retirements to increase beyond expectations (due to equity re-pricing upward when rates drop, bolstering retirement account balances). We are in uncharted territory.
- nojvek 3y ago
  There’s also plenty of immigration. Not buying that this is driven due to labor population reduction. Don’t you have sources? Would love to read.
  - klooney 3y ago
    The immigration is mostly unauthorized and down-market. H1B and green cards, the kind of immigrants who compete with HN denizens, has remained statically capped.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/without-immigrants-us-working-age-population-would-shrink https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-11/withou... | https://archive.today/iZHvg https://archive.today/iZHvg
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230... > First, we are seeing profound changes in the labour market and the nature of work. > Labour markets are historically tight across advanced economies – and not only due to strong labour demand after the pandemic. In some economies, workers who left the labour force have not fully returned, be it due to sickness or changing preferences. In others, like the euro area, employment is at record highs, but people are working fewer hours on average.

oldpersonintx 3y ago

[dead]

impish9208 3y ago

Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39941608 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39941608

dpflan 3y ago
This links to the actual BLS notification, so thanks for referring to this post! Here is the BLS link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_04052024.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_04052024.ht...

decremental 3y ago

[dead]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

ipaddr 3y ago

I noticed recruiter spam lately not surprised. Surprised companies all stopped hiring and started back at the same time. Is there a newsletter everyone is following.

exac 3y ago
Likely that their Q2 budgets get approved around the same time.
science4sail 3y ago
I imagine that an interesting sociological topic could be fashion trends and mass hysteria among business elites.
jasonboyd 3y ago
I commented to my wife this past week that I was suddenly contacted by multiple recruiters, seemingly out of nowhere. It had been many many months prior since that had happened.

readthenotes1 3y ago

One out of four of those jobs were government jobs. Hooray!? There is also the likelihood that these numbers will get corrected downwards at has almost every month lately

MilStdJunkie 3y ago
Defense jobs have gotten goosed in the nuts, too. I'm getting dinged every few hours this week. I know, I know, first world problem, but it's a nice change.
lgleason 3y ago
Exactly!
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
bandyaboot 3y ago
232k would also be a pretty solid number.

lgleason 3y ago

"Health care led with 72,000 new jobs, followed by government (71,000), leisure and hospitality (49,000), and construction (39,000)." An increase in government employment is not real growth. Healthcare growth is also probably at minimum 50% driven by an increase in government spending on entitlements.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
bandyaboot 3y ago
> Healthcare growth is also probably at minimum 50% driven by an increase in government spending on entitlements. Before suggesting 50% is the minimum, perhaps start with some shred of evidence that it’s a significant factor at all?