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> Self driving cars were supposed to be around the corner because AI was advancing so fast. To be fair, that was almost true. Waymo is doing well, Mobileye is
by _ea1k 3y ago
> Self driving cars were supposed to be around the corner because AI was advancing so fast.
To be fair, that was almost true. Waymo is doing well, Mobileye is looking good in demos, and even Tesla has a solid L2 system now.
It seems inevitable that this will hit a really dramatic exponential growth phase within the next 2-3 years.
- greedo 3y agoInevitability has nothing to do with it at all. And there's zero evidence we'll see a "dramatic exponential growth phase...". That's just the same hucksterism we've heard from Musk for a decade. Unless you limit "Self driving" cars to L2, there's no supporting evidence indicating anything like a breakthrough.
- _ea1k 3y agoI think your response implies that I'm referring to Tesla as seeing exponential growth in a robotaxi. Tesla is currently at zero on that dimension. They might get it above zero and grow rapidly in 2-3 years, but I'd give it very low odds. Waymo OTOH, has increased to 3 fairly difficult areas. It seems extremely likely that their growth rate will increase dramatically sometime within the next 2-3 years. If they don't, there are other competitors with strong technology that might move ahead.
- greedo 3y ago"To be fair, that was almost true." No, it was not even close to "almost true" except for hype from the various hypesters. Waymo currently operates in TWO areas, not three. Phoenix and San Fran are not "fairly difficult." Come to Michigan in the winter for difficult. Come to Denver in the winter. Waymo has (wisely) selected areas that are either very simple in layout, that have sympathetic governments, or both. And what other competitors are out there with "strong technology"? Robotaxis are a novelty. Just like the monorail at Disneyland.