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Who doesn’t drink? Well definitely someone with stage 4 cancer, so… Edit: this was too snark, I meant: If someone has cancer they are less likely to drink. So

Who doesn’t drink? Well definitely someone with stage 4 cancer, so… Edit: this was too snark, I meant: If someone has cancer they are less likely to drink. So more of those people end up in the non-drinking cohort. There may not be many of them, but they are outliers in terms of life expectancy, whether measured in age of death, or age from the survey date.

leosanchez 3y ago
There are lot of people in my region that don't drink alcohol. It is considered taboo
bartonfink 3y ago
https://news.gallup.com/poll/509501/six-americans-drink-alcohol.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/509501/six-americans-drink-alco... Nearly 40% of respondents to a Gallup poll don't. That seems high to me, but I would expect somewhere around 15% of people to abstain. But then again I'm not so full of myself to put "data science" in my name on here and say obviously incorrect stuff.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- datascienced 3y ago
  What I am saying is someone who is very ill will not drink, because they are very ill. So regardless of what alcohol does or doesn't do, your non drinking cohort includes all the people who are very ill and don't drink, which I assume is a larger effect than the people who are very ill and drink anyway (due to alcoholism or yolo). Let's say 40% don't drink, 60% do. If 1% of the population are terminally ill. Of those 90% don't drink, 10% do. Then for 1000 people: 10 are terminally ill. 9 don't drink 1 does. 1000 is the total pop. Of those: * 400 don't drink, and 9 of those are terminally ill. * 600 drink and 1 of those is terminally ill. Let's say terminally ill reduces life expectancy by 20 years. The life lost per person due to terminal illness in the non-drinking category is 20 * 9/400, which is 0.45 years. For drinkers it is 20 * 1/600 = 0.03 years.
letharion 3y ago
Also it has been pointed out elsewhere, that previous alcoholics will likely show up as non-drinkers in a study like this, but will already have done significant damage to their health. The result being that not drinking looks worse than it is.
- nraynaud 3y ago
  I would add that even if they recovered, drinkers increase their risk for a few cancer, so you probably can't just assess their past health issues to correct the life expectancy.
ben_w 3y ago
I think it's forbidden for Muslims? (Theoretically at least: naturally there are people who take such taboos more or less seriously. Previous line manager was an Iranian with Zelda tattoos).
- 2Gkashmiri 3y ago
  I live in Kashmir, India (unfortunate) anyway, historically we have been pretty isolated from general mass market societal pressures plus strong religious affiliation means people as a society don't like alcohol. Until last year I think there used to be a single wine shop for like 8 million population. Since then governmental pressure brought more and more shops but natives still don't accept it. We have a huge tourist population who comes here and they are the customers + army. Natives have not consumed alcohol for centuries and there doesn't seem to be a cultural shift towards acceptance so I can say the problems associated with alcohol are just not here. No one gets diagnosed with alcohol liver disease or gets into drunk driving accidents or family abuse stuff. Not do people get into addiction (drugs have been forcefully introduced)
  - leosanchez 3y ago
    Alcohol is not culturally normal in some other states of India too. Ofcourse not as much as Kashmiri. We do have wine shops / bars but there is still taboo around alcohol Thankfully
- datascienced 3y ago
  Probably, but I was too snark to get my point across. You are fighting for your life => You probably choose not to drink. This skews the non-drinking cohort, for reasons nothing to do with the positive* health effects of drink. * There are probably no positive health effects.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Perhaps; I don't know. My only data point is anecdotal: my dad had bowel cancer, didn't change his water consumption after the surgery, insisted he was drinking plenty even while the nurse was putting a drip in one arm to rehydrate him and the other arm to give meds because he'd almost destroyed his kidneys. Habits can be hard to change, and self-awareness slow. But an anecdote isn't data.
ljf 3y ago
This is similar to a friend of mine that read that those who play golf socially, live on average 10 years longer than those who don't. He's very unfit, drinks a lot and doesn't eat well - but gets a round of golf in 2 or 3 times a month. Now I agree 'the cohort of people that regularly play golf' likely do live longer than people who don't play golf - BUT that is not caused by the golf itself. Those who can play golf a) already can get out and do some light exercise b) have the funds to play so putting them in the top 20 to 10 percent of household incomes, c) have a family set up that allows them time away to play golf d) have jobs that leave them with free time and energy to play golf I could go on, but I'd argue strongly that it is not the GOLF that gives them the longevity of life. Same here with the drinking - what are all the others things that go with people being ABLE to socially drink (in moderation)? I'd argue the drink does not cause them...
robocat 3y ago
> If someone has cancer they are less likely to drink Citation? Anecdotally, I know people with cancer that keep drinking heavily (assuming they were drinkers before getting diagnosed). Then again I live in New Zealand which is definitely a drinking culture.
caeril 3y ago
In my personal experience, this is generally untrue, especially if the cancer is terminal. There is a human tendency to adopt a "fuck it" attitude when confronted with death, and any recreational substance that doesn't interfere with treatment is fully on the menu.

leosanchez 3y ago

There are lot of people in my region that don't drink alcohol. It is considered taboo

bartonfink 3y ago

https://news.gallup.com/poll/509501/six-americans-drink-alcohol.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/509501/six-americans-drink-alco... Nearly 40% of respondents to a Gallup poll don't. That seems high to me, but I would expect somewhere around 15% of people to abstain. But then again I'm not so full of myself to put "data science" in my name on here and say obviously incorrect stuff.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
datascienced 3y ago
What I am saying is someone who is very ill will not drink, because they are very ill. So regardless of what alcohol does or doesn't do, your non drinking cohort includes all the people who are very ill and don't drink, which I assume is a larger effect than the people who are very ill and drink anyway (due to alcoholism or yolo). Let's say 40% don't drink, 60% do. If 1% of the population are terminally ill. Of those 90% don't drink, 10% do. Then for 1000 people: 10 are terminally ill. 9 don't drink 1 does. 1000 is the total pop. Of those: * 400 don't drink, and 9 of those are terminally ill. * 600 drink and 1 of those is terminally ill. Let's say terminally ill reduces life expectancy by 20 years. The life lost per person due to terminal illness in the non-drinking category is 20 * 9/400, which is 0.45 years. For drinkers it is 20 * 1/600 = 0.03 years.

letharion 3y ago

Also it has been pointed out elsewhere, that previous alcoholics will likely show up as non-drinkers in a study like this, but will already have done significant damage to their health. The result being that not drinking looks worse than it is.

nraynaud 3y ago
I would add that even if they recovered, drinkers increase their risk for a few cancer, so you probably can't just assess their past health issues to correct the life expectancy.

ben_w 3y ago

I think it's forbidden for Muslims? (Theoretically at least: naturally there are people who take such taboos more or less seriously. Previous line manager was an Iranian with Zelda tattoos).

2Gkashmiri 3y ago
I live in Kashmir, India (unfortunate) anyway, historically we have been pretty isolated from general mass market societal pressures plus strong religious affiliation means people as a society don't like alcohol. Until last year I think there used to be a single wine shop for like 8 million population. Since then governmental pressure brought more and more shops but natives still don't accept it. We have a huge tourist population who comes here and they are the customers + army. Natives have not consumed alcohol for centuries and there doesn't seem to be a cultural shift towards acceptance so I can say the problems associated with alcohol are just not here. No one gets diagnosed with alcohol liver disease or gets into drunk driving accidents or family abuse stuff. Not do people get into addiction (drugs have been forcefully introduced)
- leosanchez 3y ago
  Alcohol is not culturally normal in some other states of India too. Ofcourse not as much as Kashmiri. We do have wine shops / bars but there is still taboo around alcohol Thankfully
datascienced 3y ago
Probably, but I was too snark to get my point across. You are fighting for your life => You probably choose not to drink. This skews the non-drinking cohort, for reasons nothing to do with the positive* health effects of drink. * There are probably no positive health effects.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Perhaps; I don't know. My only data point is anecdotal: my dad had bowel cancer, didn't change his water consumption after the surgery, insisted he was drinking plenty even while the nurse was putting a drip in one arm to rehydrate him and the other arm to give meds because he'd almost destroyed his kidneys. Habits can be hard to change, and self-awareness slow. But an anecdote isn't data.

ljf 3y ago

This is similar to a friend of mine that read that those who play golf socially, live on average 10 years longer than those who don't. He's very unfit, drinks a lot and doesn't eat well - but gets a round of golf in 2 or 3 times a month. Now I agree 'the cohort of people that regularly play golf' likely do live longer than people who don't play golf - BUT that is not caused by the golf itself. Those who can play golf a) already can get out and do some light exercise b) have the funds to play so putting them in the top 20 to 10 percent of household incomes, c) have a family set up that allows them time away to play golf d) have jobs that leave them with free time and energy to play golf I could go on, but I'd argue strongly that it is not the GOLF that gives them the longevity of life. Same here with the drinking - what are all the others things that go with people being ABLE to socially drink (in moderation)? I'd argue the drink does not cause them...

robocat 3y ago

> If someone has cancer they are less likely to drink Citation? Anecdotally, I know people with cancer that keep drinking heavily (assuming they were drinkers before getting diagnosed). Then again I live in New Zealand which is definitely a drinking culture.

caeril 3y ago

In my personal experience, this is generally untrue, especially if the cancer is terminal. There is a human tendency to adopt a "fuck it" attitude when confronted with death, and any recreational substance that doesn't interfere with treatment is fully on the menu.