> Study after study shows that you can give people probabilities and ask them for decisions, and they will usually be wrong. This is somewhat true, but often t

> Study after study shows that you can give people probabilities and ask them for decisions, and they will usually be wrong. This is somewhat true, but often the effect disappears when the scenario is described clearly. For example most setups for the conjunction fallacy are written in such a way that their ordinary interpretation is exclusive, but are claimed to be inclusive by the researcher. This is much like replying to an “x or y” question with “yes.” For example: Which is more probable? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. An ordinary person will read the first as: Linda is a bank teller and is not active in the feminist movement. Because the first option is analyzed in the context of the second and ordinarily disjunction in English is exclusive where it isn’t explicitly inclusive.