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> This puts the LD50 of parachute jumps around 1,700 jumps. This suffers from the same issue as saying "200 years ago the life expectancy was 35". Most of the
by margalabargala 3y ago
> This puts the LD50 of parachute jumps around 1,700 jumps.
This suffers from the same issue as saying "200 years ago the life expectancy was 35".
Most of the people who die skydiving are inexperienced, reckless, or both. They are not the sort of people who are likely to make it to 1700 jumps.
If you say "among people who have survived 1700 skydives, how many died skydiving before reaching 3400?" I bet you will find it to be even safer.
- foxyv 3y agoIt's more of a rhetorical LD50. Otherwise Don Kellner would be dead as a doornail long before reaching his record. https://www.uspa.org/about-uspa/uspa-news/uspa-posthumously-awards-don-kellner-his-final-most-jumps-record https://www.uspa.org/about-uspa/uspa-news/uspa-posthumously-... Edit: If the statistics held the same for him, at 46,000 jumps he had a 99% chance of dying from a failure.
- eek2121 3y agoThe same could apply to economics. I feel like US stats still haven't caught up to actual numbers. For example, the number of six figure jobs. A big problem is that when numbers change quickly, median numbers, or even average numbers, don't immediately capture that change. It can take YEARS for the real stats to come out. That being said, it is absolutely ridiculous that this has become the drama it has. Federal departments should be given lawyers and be allowed to go after people.
- Stibinator 3y agoIn rock climbing there's some evidence that there is a U-shaped risk curve. Newbs who do dumb stuff on one end and experienced climbers who get complacent on the other.
- foxyv 3y agoThat holds the same for airplane pilots as well. I love this lecture by Mike Patey: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1nXjPhGrwY&t=2943s&pp=ygUZbWlrZSBwYXRleSBzYWZldHkgbGVjdHVyZQ%3D%3D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1nXjPhGrwY&t=2943s&pp=ygUZb...